rijk

does this mean that fairfax increased it's stake from 9 to 9.32%, i.e. a 3.6% increase? regards rijk http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0728/boi.html

thanks a lot for posting this info, great!!! regards rijk

who is going to rescue the rescuer(s)? regards rijk http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/08/us-eurozone-idUSTRE7953D520111008?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FbusinessNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Business+News%29

thanks for your input peter markets are nearly back to pre 2008/9 correction levels, so effectively, today there is not a lot of correction left in market valuations issues have mostly been 'postponed' instead of resolved which means that one of these days, reality could strike...... regards rijk

with the added downside protection in place,... has anybody thought about selling put options? the jan 13 put strike 60 goes for 5 -what is the chance of brk dropping below 60? -how terrible would it be to be forced to buy brk at 55 when buffett just told us that the stock is significantly undervalued at 70? my only reservation is that 3 (watsa, klarman, rodriguez) of the top 10 investors have recently expressed their concerns about the current state of affairs and the potential for a significant market correction even with the buy back authorization, i have no illusion that brk would be excempted if a major correction would take place, maybe brk could limit the damage to half of a market correction? a 50% market correction could maybe be limited to a 25%/$17.50 impact for brk, i.e. s&p 600 would take brk to $52.50, only slightly below the 55 excersize price? does the risk reward look interesting here? regards rijk

yes i am european but i am mostly exposed to the us markets & currency my concern is not so much about capital protection but more about being able to access the cash when it would be most beneficial, i.e. during a market crash and to avoid the risk of a repeat of what happened in 2008 i am not sure at which level panic exists right now, but it feels to me like the vulcano has been rumbling for a while and an eruption could happen in the near future..... bottomline, the current debt crisis is not going away and something is going to happen probably sooner than later....... regards rijk TD Ameritrade and the Reserve money funds The firm's customers were approached by TD Ameritrade brokers and recommended to invest their liquid money in a money fund managed by The Reserve, RYPQX (the Reserve Yield Plus Class R fund), according to investors in the fund.[17][18][19][20] More than 98% of the fund had been sold to TD Ameritrade's clients, as disclosed in a statement from the Reserve on July 29, 2008.[21][improper synthesis?] When the fund broke the buck along with several other Reserve money funds in September, 2008, money assets of thousands of TD Ameritrade clients (including many senior citizens) were frozen. For the larger Reserve Primary Fund that also broke the buck, TD Ameritrade said it will reimburse clients for up to a 3% loss. Other Reserve funds, such as the Interstate Tax Exempt Fund, were sold by TD Ameritrade, and were caught up in the Primary Fund's Failure, leaving investors in these funds without liquidity. However, the Reserve Yield Plus fund previously marketed by the company is not covered by the offer http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TD_Ameritrade

ameritrade offers two option to keep your cash -FDIC INSURED DEPOSIT ACCOUNT IDA03 NOT COVERED BY SIPC - Balances reflected in your brokerage account are FDIC-insured and are held by TD Bank N.A and TD Bank USA, N.A., or both (up to $250,000 per depositor, per bank). The IDA balances are not covered by the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC) protection applicable to your brokerage account. -TD AMERITRADE Cash - Cash is held in your brokerage account, protected by Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC) coverage applicable to the account against brokerage failure (up to $250,000). rates are identical, basically 0, what i am concerned about is to have cash frozen in a mm fund during a market crash what is the safest option and would the TD Ameritrade cash option eliminate this risk? regards rijk

time to add regards rijk http://www.zerohedge.com/news/suck-it-buffett-brka-below-100000-first-time-20-months?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

management at LUK (wisely) sold a fair % of their significant holdings around 35, if we get lucky, we will soon be able to buy again under 20..... regards rijk

half the money with Tim and the other half with Francis just curious, why don't you leave anything with prem???? regards rijk

Probably the best advantage you can get in this businesses is management. If the person/people who run the co are great merchandisers, they will do well and take share from competitors. Ex. Mickey Drexler, Jim Sinegal, Leslie Wexner, Ron Johnson. As in investing, it's an art, not a science. if this is correct, then ARO could be an interesting opportunity, look at the last 10 years ROE (25 - 65 %) & ROA (12 - 30%) is the worldwide internet launch a desperate move or could this aeropostale back on track? http://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/427839

this is starting to become an interesting opportunity jain is saying that at 52, there is sufficient margin of safety, while it's for sale now below 48 is jain buying for the (investment value of the) float or for the insurance operations? regards rijk

this is high stakes poker, whoever blinks, loses, the possibility of a higher offer seem neglectible while the possibility of acceptance also look slim considering buyer managements prior comments about the adequacy of this bid...... regards rijk

i received my copy after sending (as requested) a hand written letter to requst a copy of the book and making a donation in lieu of shipping cost, very happy with the book!!! regards rijk

Because Fairfax is leveraged 4 to 1 asset to equity and has over $2B in debt. They cannot afford a 25% drop in their portfolio. If that happened they would never be able to write business again! Cheers! this comment would indicate that the equity hedge is primarily driven by concerns regarding market valuations instead of being driven by leverage/insurance regulations...???? Your equity position is 100 percent hedged. Why? If you looked at 2008–09 as just another post-war recession, then you would be very optimistic. You would say, “Things are going to continue to do well. Yes, the recovery is a little slower than it has been, but things will work out and you should be investing in equities.” On the other hand, if you thought 2008–09 was, in insurance parlance, a once-in-50-years event, like the Great Depression was in the 1930s and like Japan is and was in the past 20 years, then you might say you have to be careful. Because stock markets from the bottom of 2009 have gone up more than 100 percent and interest rate spreads have come down dramatically, down to the levels (and perhaps even below the levels) of 2007 and 2008.

what about the 20,000 engineers? munger commented to be very impressed with byd having 20,000 engineers on the payroll that work very hard when they encounter problems........ regards rijk

some more good information... regards rijk http://seekingalpha.com/article/288744-housing-will-rebound-stronger-than-expected?source=feed

agree on the BP opportunity, that's probably why klarman decided to buy BP, however, the market in general is twice as expensive as BP..... regards rijk http://www.dataroma.com/m/m_activity.php?m=BAUPOST&typ=a

moore, the graph is relating the 10 yr average p/e to 20 yr returns, not next year's p/e... today's p/e 10 = 19.4 which would predict a 20 yr average return of 2-5% we would need a drop of 50% to S&P 600 to talk about an incredible opportunity..... regards rijk http://www.multpl.com/

what a difference a month makes, several home builders are now trading below bv and at low single digit p/e (based on pre bubble normalized earnings power) phm p/bv 0.75 p/e 3 len p/bv 0.74 p/e 4 ryl p/bv 0.8 p/e 2 mdc p/bv 0.8 p/e 4 tol p/bv 0.96 p/e 10 dhi p/bv 1.1 p/e 6 buffett talks about excess housing inventory of only 1 million and a recovery by mid 2013 http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11845 based on current economic conditions and outlook, it might be wise to pick "the last one standing" any suggestions? regards rijk

"S&P500 today is nearly the exact same level it was 13 years ago in 1998...13 years ago! It was overvalued then and it is undervalued today." why would fairfax keep a substantial equity hedge (86% as of Q2) at S&P 500 1062.5 level if markets are undervalued today at S&P 500 1150 level? why does the Shiller PE/10 indicate a 25% overvaluation today versus historical average if the market is undervalued at current levels? not trying to be a pain, just wanting to learn........ regards rijk http://www.multpl.com/

FFH is a win win whatever happens, so don't expect a large drop, if we get lucky, people might be forced to sell FFH to plug other holes, i'm hoping for 360...... regards rijk

glad the site is back!! regards rijk

but the only serious tire kicking we're doing is arbitrage situations where the spread is now abnormally wide. are ceph and vsea on your buy list? regards rijk

Are we looking at the same stocks? I am seeing plenty of that "single digit P/E 10" stuff? ??? edit : Nvm, you were talking about Schiller's PE... 50% seems crazy. Many companies are already under 2009's low valuations. People seem to be looking at price ("All that downside!!!!") but don't see value. I don't get it. Do you truly believe we can get to an S&P500 of 560 without any major depression? I am just not seeing it and the market acts like it is a serious recession already and some things will never recover. not saying we will see S&P 600, all i am saying is, be realistic, don't think that today's market is cheap, it's not, based on historic standards, the market is still overvalued by roughly 20% and we have only corrected 20% sofar from a 50% overvalued situation..... regards rijk