given2invest

Some people on this forum think WEB is some sort of God, and I don't mean in the figurative sense. I can assure you, I've met him: He puts on his pants just the like the rest of us, one foot at a time.

Kind of hard when the opposition thinks you're a socialist who is part of Al Queda and wasn't born in this country, no?

tea party

This is hogwash. Those preferred deals were never seen as risky at the time. In fact, it was wildly accepted on Wall Street that Buffett got an amazing deal that any fund would have gladly taken if given the opportunity, especially on the Goldman purchase.

It's different this time because congress (republicans) have never said before they won't raise the limit. It's definitely different this time.

Nice day on NABI. Down 69% so far today! I know Hester's not a fan, but if you look at the list, which is probabilistic in nature, overall, it's done very, very nicely! ;D Your black box predicted their phase 3 trial would fail?

Good riddance front runners liquidity providers...

I agree, poor journalism.

That's not at all what it sounded like he meant in that article, for what it's worth. It sounds like he believes in 17 year cycles. Why else would he have said the next bull market will end in 2033? It looks like there was a loss of accuracy in translating what was said to what was written. The transcript was written by another party. It never occurred to me that he could mean that there would be a market cycle lasting exactly 17 years. I dont think he thinks that way. I think every one here would agree with you if that were the case. OK, that makes more sense. I take back my initial comment if the quote was taken out of context.

That's not at all what it sounded like he meant in that article, for what it's worth. It sounds like he believes in 17 year cycles. Why else would he have said the next bull market will end in 2033?

I think his point that most net nets are extremely overcapitalized companies where even if the EV were to double you wouldn't make a great return on your invested capital. That's something I generally agree with.

He wasn't saying that. He was saying that we had a 17 year bull market and then we have to have a 17 year bear market. This will be followed by another 17 year bull market. At least that's how I interpret it.

So we have these perfect symmetry events where 1982 to 1999 the market ran a lot. And from 1999 to 2016 let’s say it does nothing or did nothing. So all we have to do is get to 2016 with a pot of cash and then we climb again until 2033. He sounds so f'n stupid here. I'll never listen to another word this guy says. That being said, he's absolutely right about his opinion of most net-nets.

TELL US WHICH ONE! Honestly it's not an 'I'm smarter than most investors, deep value' type investment. It's more of a trade. Apple. You put 100% of your net worth in it?

TELL US WHICH ONE!

Let me be clear: I think there is a greater than 5 or 10% chance they do not raise the debt ceiling, so it is far from a guarantee there is a rally. I basically see it as a 2% up day when they raise it and a 10-20% down day/week if they fail to do it. Even if it's done day 3,4,5 - the repercussions will be huge. Moody's has said they will lower the rating to AA indefinitely. Congress will make the mistake of a generation fucking this up.

It has nothing to do with the US being able to repay. They will never default, as you said. They will print money forever to get out of it. This is really just about two things: 1) Do they go past the deadline for a few days or a week and essentially halt the world economy in the meantime? 2) If Moody's downgrades to AA, even though it should be meaningless given how awful Moody's and the credit rating agencies are, it isn't because many institutions can only buy AAA rated bonds. This will mean there will be widespread selling of US Govmt bonds and borrowing costs will skyrocket which will have devastating effects on the economy.

Before 2008 when Congress allowed the bank bailout bill to fail and the dow fell 600 or 700 points in a matter of minutes, I would have told you there is a 0% chance they don't hike the debt ceiling. I would say there is a 5% chance they don't hike the debt ceiling. Even more absurd, once they reach an 11th hour agreement, you will see a monster rally.

I don't even know someone short this. In fact, since you're long it - I hope it turns out to be legit and goes to 20. Further, it would provide huge embarrassment to Paulson which would be hilarious to me. ;)

Yah, a company that is under the suspicion of massive fraud should certainly have their press releases taken at face value. It's not coming from the company's mouth, it's coming from the analysts mouth. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/sinoforest/for-sino-forest-watchers-the-chinese-tour-must-wait/article2088146/ From the article: "Analysts confirmed that they advised the company to postpone the trip because it wouldn’t be helpful." Stephen Atkinson, an analyst at BMO Nesbitt Burns who covers Sino-Forest, agreed with that assessment. “Basically, for the trip to be worthwhile, the analysts really need to meet the auditors involved, as well as [Poyry, the company that did a valuation of its forest land]. At the moment, these people wouldn’t be available,” he said. “I and other analysts said ‘No, we’re better off to wait and do everything all at once, rather than go there, get a bit of information and then go back again,’” Mr. Atkinson said. But don't let the facts get in the way ... I'm not involved in TRE one way or the other. I have never been short it and I have never been long it. That being said, I didn't see that news article.

Yah, a company that is under the suspicion of massive fraud should certainly have their press releases taken at face value.

disgusting

If it was so obvious/certain that airline stocks would underperform the broader market going forward, we could all be very rich men by shorting airline stocks and buying the S&P 500 in proportion. It's not that easy. That being said, I would never invest in an airline.

so unbelievably sketchy

Pff, Publisher: HarperCollins (October 1991) I guess that wins.