Valuebo

This is a documentary? Asking trick question to average joes, interviewing some nutjobs and jumping to conclusions about all kinds of things, all with a layer of religious bs. N/o. Oh and we are forgetting the holocaust? And the proof is that some kids who are suddenly asked to answer the question "Who was Adolf Hitler?" can only say "wasn't he german?" or "some kind of president" etc. People are generally stupid, especially when being put under pressure because you film them and put a microphone to their face. Ask them about the slaughtering in Congo by Leopold II where possibly 50-80% of the natives got killed for example. Ask them about the horrors in Nanking 75 years ago where they did vivisections on pregnant women and children without anesthesia while they were days before deliberately infected with diseases like syphilis and gonorrhea. Ask them about what is going on at the moment in Syria. Etc. etc. Quite sure plenty of people sadly don't even know about these events and if they do, they hardly care. But hey, we need some shocking "interviews" that show how brainwashed we all are that most don't evn know who Hitler was! At least that is what they try to portray here so that the can send out the real message... The real message being that "the American Holocaust", generally known under the term 'abortion' by people who aren't completely brainwashed by the nonsense of people like Ray Comfort, has to stop. What a joke.

Thank you for the reminder libor.plus1. I try to live by it as much as I can. Bought plenty of FTP under $18 the last few weeks and will add again if we drop more. Did the same last summer and winter with companies like BAC at $7 and $5 and the bank is stronger than ever. As I said elsewhere, uncertainty is always present, it just doesn't feel like that most of the time! If you get uncertainty in a specific stock (even if all outcomes are "good", one just better than the other) when the market is uncertain you can get amazing opportunities. FMD one of them? Or Nintendo! :)

They have been shifting the time line for some time now yes. If we had to believe their first forecast we probably were already 6 months into the recession. Will people say that they were right if we see a recession by August? What about October? December? I want those odds; be "right" 3 times (sure, still hard) and you are considered an expert! 8) Imo there will always be to many factors influencing the whole picture. We can never be sure of what will happen and the future is (obviously) always uncertain. It isn't more uncertain now than it ever was, so... invest! ;)

I still don't think DELL is really cheap. It's fair to slightly undervalued in my mind based on its ability to grow its cash flows, and the lack of competitive advantages. Cheers! « Last Edit: May 22, 2012, 03:19:03 PM by Parsad » ??? Indeed. Can't even believe Parsad actually said this. Where is the sudden change of heart coming from? A 20% drop from fairly valued (or slightly undervalued) shouldn't cut it. When posting the message on May 22 he did in fact already know the after hours stock price... Especially in the light of this topic -> http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/big-four-to-audit-spain's-banks/ where he stated again to have plenty of cash. Surely you must find better things than something that is 20-30% undervalued without competitive advantages if you hold plenty of cash waiting for the big opportunities. I can understand you sold the BAC puts right before the day the stock went up 8-10%, even if it was languishing at that level for a few weeks already. That's just lucky timing after a good weekend discussion with moore. ;D But I really can't see the logic here. Would you mind to explain your vision Parsad? TIA. :)

Things change, you would be crazy to bet on Apple at this point aiming for a 50-100% return in a few years IMO. I just bought a 200€ sony xperia U with latest android, dual core 1ghz, 3,5"screen, great camera, and a lot of other things that are actually at least as good as the previous iphone generation. Most online reviews actually give it a better rating than Apple's Iphone 3g. For 200€! I could have bought a 650€ Iphone 4s that is slightly better but why would I? I doubt Apple will retain it's hip image for which people pay up 25-50% in 3-5 years, let alone after that period. Maybe they do, maybe they don't. Not knowing this is enough to stay away.

Hollande lowers France's retirement age from 62 to 60 for those working from age 18-19. Will cost 1.2b euros this year, 3b at final speed. Jikes!

Thank you for the reminder Rabbitisrich. We should all have a longer time horizon and view our results in terms of years and decades, not months and quarters. We have to be patient on different levels. In the last few months I have learned that I have a long way to go, too ambitious! :-X

And what IF that happens? Do you not get good value here at $7 with BAC even if Europe collapses? There is always the chance of a 25-35% market collapse, always. I'm not willing to forgo great opportunities hoping to get even sweeter deals IF armageddon strikes. For me that is as stupid as keeping overvalued shares because the market is still rising and the economy is booming. I understand Parsad completely considering his position with his fund without lock-up, but most here shouldn't care about macro at all imo. (Btw Parsad, saying "that you can't lose now" is pretty easy AFTER the market gave away all it's gains for the year. The outcome is quite perfect for you now, it could have been different.) I don't care much that I lost my 35% in gains for the year in 50 days. My process isn't wrong because this happened. You can expect that if you hold 60%+ in one stock (it was lower before, I just added aggressively) and the rest in banks (+warrants). Nothing really changed for those companies that I am holding and I just pick up more as we go along. Most people are just too afraid of temporary paper losses. (That's of course easy to say with a 5-figure portfolio!)

Reread it and it seems that you are correct. I was too hasty in posting my thoughts. Not that I agree as Buffett is no fan of holding cash and is only willing to hold a necessary buffer. It's not because A is better than B over the long haul that A is any good, both are likely quite bad over the long term compared to alternatives.

He's in fact just saying what Buffett is; good assets bought now at reasonable prices will produce more value than cash ever will in the longer term, even if that means you are possibly buying right before a big economic panic or whatever. We can only buy things cheap and cannot really predict what the future holds. Btw, it is interesting to see how more and more people (here and elsewhere) are again extremely aware about the global economic situation after equities dropped a bit again. Noticed this again today for ex. with the topic "more pain to come?" posted here. When equities made a new 4-year high (?), most (incl. me) were all posting or returns for 2012.. :) I'm not smart enough to play that timing game and I'm not going to lie awake of predictions by so called experts that a "global recession" is on the way. Oh, thanks for the letter!

Same things as most it seems. Shoes, dress shirts, jeans, vacations if "luxury all-in",... I'm also looking to buy a decent desk chair that I can use forever and when I move I'll also look for a decent mattras. Definitely not for phones (xperia u does just fine), laptops (dell, idem) and other things that have fast depreciation and don't add to an experience (that I would really enjoy or want) like cars etc.

I have to agree on those points. Pretty much why I stayed out. That and.. it's tech. Because Dell isn't growing CF, buybacks also add only limited value at this point. Michael Dell is in a tough spot. Not a lot of love for Prem btw!

Below $24b market cap after hours. What was their cash position again? Lots overseas but still. Don't think the earnings from 2011 (fiscal 2012) were very representative but nonetheless this price is bizarre. But other things are cheaper.

Shalab, Prem is not purely betting on anything to happen. He just sees a reasonable chance that something very bad happens and he is hedged for a worst case scenario through this CPI bet. He probably calculated the price of the CPI derivates was low and had a margin of safety when he compared it against the chance of severe deflation. Although the possibility of this might be low (for ex. 10%), the bet could still be worth taking if the price represents a much lower expected possibility (for exp. 2-5%). This is especially true for a leveraged insurer like FFH. If x and y don't happen then those derivates will turn out to be worthless in 5+ years. But that doesn't mean that he won't do ok. Fairfax is positioned to do good enough over the long haul no matter what happens. He didn't bet $2b on those CPI contracts or something in that line, it's really more insurance. Berkshire is a totally different beast. That is also why both men can be correct from their POV and given their situation. Just like two value investors can have very different levels of cash in their portfolio atm! ;)

Yeah sure, WEB is talking about 100 years. The effects of holding cash for 2-5 years are more than high enough, especially for someone like WEB who was able to compound money at 25%/year. The fact that WEB has been buying aggressively since mid last year says enough imo. He's not planning to sit on crazy amounts of money for 2-5 years because things 'might' get uglier. While I think it takes discipline to go to 50% cash and changing your believes over time, comparing the 50-times earnings mania with the market today makes no sense at all to me Parsad. There are a reasonable amount of opportunities around that - as businesses - will do just fine in almost any market. For some, like you, it will make sense to have a big cash position in this market. For others, like me, it will make no sense at all. It's all personal and both actions can be correct imo. I'm sure you agree on this? :)

I wanted to check this guy's website again to read one of his letters and found this: http://www.ticonline.com/ He is now selling his letters for $10 each and yelling how obviously great he is. This is a sad sight! It's like Moore said; I'll never understand why you would host value investor conferences selling at $1000/seat or sell 10-pages long letters for $10 as an investor who gets 15%+ returns on his capital each year. Doesn't make sense at all!

Viking, I remember you being a big BRK fan at 1,15xBV and below last summer. Have you sold now? How would you justify selling brk (or any cheap stock) at the current price? I've seen 50-90% cash positions a couple of times here. I understand 50%, but 90% is just pure timing. You talk about waiting for high quality to be dirt cheap before buying again. What would you call BRK at a decade low valuation? What are you hoping for? Below $100,000 with BV at $100,000? I don't see that happening unless the market drops 30-40% and then BV will be fairly lower as well. I could say the same about plenty of other stocks but obviously they wouldn't give the same downside protection. I'm only giving BRK as a very obvious example of why I believe being 90% in cash is somewhat odd imo. Just trying to see the logic in being extremely cash rich right now, don't take this as critism because it isn't. ;) I'd just rather be 125% long in BRK (with the option to switch to 100% long in other stocks when the market breaks) than 90% in cash! Timing has a poor track record.

Well I started working for a local bank this year in a small town and I only wear suits on days with meetings and the like. I'm only 22 and feel that a suit creates more distance and gives less confidence to customers, because you look more like a salesman. I'd rather be viewed as the friendly neighbour who helps them out and doesn't come over as to 'haughty'. I do of course wear a dress shirt, groomed pullover, nice pants and decent shoes. No jeans etc. :D Clothes aren't everything and I'd care very little about what I wear as a small shareholder and probably even as a big one.

Exactly my thoughts twacowfca. I bought more BRK on Wednesday and Friday this week.

A very positive power? It helped in building various societies early on because the big ones generally had some basic values, but claiming that acceptance of things like a atheisme and agnosticism will result in a loss of virtue... a complete joke imo! Now still Vatican City prohibits the use of condoms in Africa for example. I could sum up a whole list from prohibiting gay marriage to torture and mutilation of women to show what a "very positive force" religion can be... Not to mention that it's all bullshit used for crowd control etc. ::) I won't even put in the effort given how impossible it generally is to convince people of another POV on subjects like religion. Education, basic values, social safety nets,... those are the things we need as modern societies to maintain virtue; not superstition, intimidation and other nonsense.

+1 Sounds like an 'old man complex'. "Before, everything was better..."

Quite sure he added the noncontr interests too. Without BV per A share is something of $106,650. Could be $107,000 now which makes buybacks possible from +- $118,000 and lower! I've seen a post about being 50 and even 90% in cash. Guess it's a preference but I'd at least put a part of it in BRK at current prices. 90% cash rarely makes sense and even when it does your timing could be of a couple of years in the worst case. With BRK you get the upside to IV if we don't get a crash and in the worst case you sell at a 20-30% loss only to pick up lesser quality that will multiple your money over time!

I don't know what the future trends will be but I'm very sure there is a very real market for phones like BB, but they miss some focus. Here in Europe there are still plenty of people who favor something like BB without a touch screen. I myself prefer BB above Iphone as well and I'm 22. I see plenty of men and women who prefer to text with a 'no touch screen'-BB above an Iphone. What RIMM has to develop further: Robust quality, great functionality without useless apps, easy to handle, long battery life and no touch screen. RIMM should focus on this market and the business side like Parsad said. In 5 years we'll all be suprised at what has changed, there is no way to forcast it... but RIMM still has a chance imo.

It's the same old story as with Netflix and others. On CNBC he said they now estimate conservative value at $30/share for BKS. But he was short (and made money) from a much lower price than $30. The joke is that their new estimated IV comes from ValueInvestorsClub, where a sum of parts valuation was done. Clearly it was a brilliant thesis that they just overlooked when they were still short two weeks ago... ::) I would wonder about my stock picking skills if I did stuff like that, zero MoS. http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000087317

Exciting news. That's how I feel about it as well. I've been sold on the idea of asteroid mining since when I was an avid scifi reader in my teens. I'm excited as all hell to start watching how this venture progresses. Someone is finally going to try to make space profitable, which could mean that all of humanity might not be trapped on this one little rock (with its parasitical governments) for much longer. Now that we've covered all the inhabitable land on the globe, what humanity desperately needs is a new frontier to escape to. With current technology it takes 50,000 years to reach the nearest star and at close to light speed it would take about 6 years. Eventually it should happen for us to survive as a species but our chances are slim. Fingers crossed tho!