Valuebo

Awch. Other way around for me. Was down a good 15% for 2014 and up over 15% again. Long live concentrated portfolios. ;x

Good reminder that commodity prices are nothing to bet the farm on. At least one lesson learned these last few years! I feel for those with substantial positions in the sector but would on the other hand like to learn how they deal with it. Partly hedged with weaker juniors, oil itself? Sold some at a loss or holding until the bitter or glorious end? TIA if anyone wants to share his experiences...

If so I guess the best thing that could happen is Greece finally leaves the EU, we get another 40% devaluation due to currency adjustment, then the Greece economy will boom and Eurobank’s stock might triple or quadruple! ;) Cheers, Gio Greece's economy will boom if they leave the EU? What are they going to export? How will they pay for anything (basically everything) they want to import? Thanks, i thought the overall investment in eurobank was only 400 million. I like to be ahead of the market. Imagine you knew that BV is 50% down in the quarter but the market hasn`t priced that in. Would you ignore that? Of course it doesn`t matter if it is now 5% more or less, but knowing it roughly gives me a good feeling. How roughly do you know if no one here mentioned energy losses that amount to as much as the Eurobank loss? Don't underestimate professional market participants. Aside from SotP valuation, they will put on their own multiple and get affected by sentiment etc. So how do you tell how the market will or should react to earnings if you don't know what they are accounting for and what is priced in? I would understand the need to discuss BV movement QoQ if for instance the CPI bet would pay off huge but I doubt you get an edge now. Also: If you believe in Fairfax's abilities to grow BV (15% yearly or not) and beat the market, does it matter if BV drops because of certain picks? Shouldn't they in general have roughly the same IV as what was assumed before, regardless of volatility and impact on BV? So how do those changes in BV really change IV for you as an investor?

Add SD, Ibm, xco, ... But why is some temporary bv movement relevant anyway?

Inflation would still be 0.6% in Europe without including energy products. Is there a spillover effect if you get deflation by one category? No opinion, just trying to understand better.

Have there ever been no/almost no signs for real problems? I stopped worrying (and learned to love the bomb). There are always going to be shit storms and I'd rather own super cheap stuff in the eye of it (Greece baby!) than pay up (US now) for clear weather. Could you tell me why it wouldn't be a boon? What exactly happens? I know next to nothing about macro. We as a couple are already spending 3-4% less of our monthly income on gas, and that is only after a 25-30% drop in prices (taxes sadly don't drop as much) and with one car. Living in one of the world's best scoring countries for redividing wealth, I'm unlikely to get many yearly net raises of 4% or a 4% tax cut (we also win that category...) so I welcome it with open arms. The gas bill in many countries is a lot higher than in the US and I don't see how it could be anything other than an incredible general boost to consumers and businesses. Add a weakening Euro and you got yourself a party.

Good one! How would you assess a portfolio of, say, 100 stocks, built up no faster than 20/year, held for average 5+ years so turnover rate 20%? I'd say it depends on your strategy and the time you can devote but most of the time I guess it's doable for some. It's also dependable of the general market situation. I could fine 50 ideas in early 2009 that were cheap enough but I can hardly find 10 now. Generally I think it makes sense to change your concentration according to general market levels. Not on purpose but because you will see it is the sensible thing to do when picking your stocks. In other words, less concentration when stocks in general are cheap and more when markets are expensive. In a cheap market you don't sacrifice as much return when diversifying because cheapness won't differ as much between picks. So you get slightly lower return but much lower concentration risk which makes it worth it. In more expensive markets you can see a bigger divergence in cheapness in a specific market you are looking at (often this is because particular stocks are misunderstood, hated for the wrong reasons or have some hair on them) which makes it more attractive to take on the extra concentration risk for a higher return. That's my view on diversification but I haven't lived through enough cycles to see if that theory is worth anything in practice. I'm sure some more intelligent, experienced and older members have a satisfying vision that they can share! :)

Two main reasons imo: - You can't always easily buy put options on certain stocks; - Getting a one stock portfolio while you have identified other - but slightly less attractive - cheap stocks, basically means you are timing specific stock movement. You are saying that your best idea will realize IV before your second best idea. It's because of this second point that medium concentration (5-12 stocks) can be so powerful. Timing isn't such an issue (as it's likely at least 1-2 stocks will reach IV per year) and the redistribution of proceeds of winners to older ideas (that haven't worked out yet) has the tendency to improve the compounding effect. That is assuming you are a decent stock picker. So not enough stocks: Timing is too hard and likely a disadvantage over the long run. (This is less of an issue if your company is both very cheap and growing strongly.) Too many: Weaker ideas get too much of the cake thus lower returns. Timing isn't an issue but also can't give you much of an advantage because your winnings get spread over too many mediocre ideas. Does that make sense? I feel strongly there has to be a sweet spot for this reason. Edit: In the end you also have to look at what you can handle. I'm perfectly fine seeing "stock pick 6", that I don't own, take off for a double if I only hold my best 5 ideas. Others might freak out when "number 31" in there list (just kidding: their!) doubles when they hold their best 30 ideas.

Have you seen that TED talk about the evolution of results in sports? At one point the speaker shows the evolution of body types in various sports. For example, over the years, swimmers got disportionally bigger torso's than average as they found out that they are simply better swimmers. He also had a fun fact about tall people: If you know a male American above 7 feet 2 inches (something like that and maybe age was a factor too), there is a 1 on 7 chance that they currently play in the NBA. 99% hard work? Bullshit. There are millions of people working there ass of in any field that will never belong to the very best simply because they don't have the luck of owning certain key characteristics that are necessary to get there.

Of course, people that are successful will always say things like that. By saying 99% is practice, he is shifting attention to his discipline and hard work. This is much more admirable to others than saying that you had an edge over others because you happen to have more gift and talent (= luck). Anyone who believes that Buffett would have achieved the same if his father was a plumber is naive. Not to mention his far above average IQ, the people he met along the way, ... I hope no one here thinks he got where he is now 99% due to reading a lot more than the next guy. What people also rarely realize is that it is a hell of a lot easier to put in the work if you are a natural talent. 10,000 hours of fun versus 10,000 hours of labor. If you are untalented that 10,000 hours wont bring you half as far as the guy who had chance encounters, a famous father and extremely high IQ. Most people hope it's true because they simply aren't as talented (and thus need it to make a chance) and those that are gladly sell it to others so that they can boast about their dedication.

Doesn't look particularly cheap given the chance that you take a serious haircut through currency devaluation. I would also rather not own things that are owned and controlled by the Greek state. In other news: http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_17/12/2014_545504 They better win that last presidential vote on 12/29!

Russia just hiked it's intrest rate to 17% from 10.5%. I guess lower oil prices + sanctions are a lot cheaper than endless conflicts/war? This is incredible.

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/fairfax-financial/us$1-000-fairfax-vs-markel/ http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/fairfax-financial/milestone/ http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/fairfax-financial/ffh-over-$600-in-toronto/ http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/fairfax-financial/who's-sorry-now/ http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/fairfax-financial/hitting-the-jackpot/ ... Value over price or the other way around? Excuse me, but am I the only one who thinks the ecstasy and focus on price lately is a bit much? I thought price often diverges from value and thus see little to be excited about if you are a long term shareholder who wants them to compound for decades to come. Wouldn't you rather prefer the stock to stay low so you can buy more or so that management can buy back shares? The other side would be an overvalued stock that they can sell or use as currency in acquisitions but in that case you as a shareholder should sell. By the way, they did exactly that some time ago when the stock was a lot lower than it is now. Food for thought. Maybe I'm crazy for preferring a situation where the stock picks do fine (IBM, SD, XCO, PWE, UPL, BBRY, ...), other investments, business and macro calls do fine and where the holding company stock lags and not the other way around. Let me know if I'm wrong and why.

It's a real blood in the streets moment for sure. I think I read that stocks are down 20% for the week and Tuesday's 12% decline was worse than the '87 crash. Correct. I do think the market's reaction is extreme. Did they expect things to be any different in two months? This way, they might actually stand a chance. And if Syriza ultimately wins the early general election, what will actually happen and how? If you look at price action, the market almost seems to think a return to the drachma is quite certain but that is obviously far from true. There is this saying in dutch: "De soep wordt nooit zo heet gegeten, als zij wordt opgediend." Literal translation: "The soup is never eaten as hot as it is served." In this context it would mean that any measures that are applied would be less severe than what was announced. I don't think Tsipras could actually afford to do most of what he is claiming (at least not so extreme) but I guess that is what politicians do. It's certainly interesting to see how little attention Greece (and it's stocks) gets. But that lower oil (the board's favorite topic lately) should give Europe a nice boost next year! ;)

Seems like the bottom for the Greek stock market is a way out unless they unexpectedly do find those 180 votes in the coming weeks.

What is your portfolio turnover Gio? Must be in the high 100's if you ask me? You speak of looking to invest with "great entrepreneurs" for 10-20-30 years but seem to jump in and out of those long term holdings all the time. I would question my personal conviction in my holdings if I traded that much.

I'm quite certain the opposite is true: Most people can't stand someone getting physically abused yet think it's perfecly fine when people get screwed over mentally and/or emotionally. Generally it's also a lot easier to get away with say verbal abuse than physical abuse anyway. It's easier to turn a blind eye to the effects the former brings. Why would the existence of natural selection rule out at least some protection for those with lesser defensive mechanisms against charlatans? Why would lower intelligence and social standing give you less right to get support and help compared to those that are psychically ill? Both are handicaps that society should care for if we want to evolve to something more than the idiots that we are today. I'm not saying they shouldn't carry the consequences of their actions, but some protection against the crooks in that documentary doesn't seem out of place to me.

If you have an extra hour of free time: Documentary about people preying on the weak. This is really, really bad. I cringed during the whole thing. I'm feeling sorry for them, it's sickening really. Also pretty sure most believers live in constant mental anguish without even realizing it. Good job society! Tom

Hey guys, Thanks for your comments, I will look into each with great care this weekend. Some great ideas here to start with!

Hi all, Does anyone know of a service that gives a notification when, for example, a stock reaches a certain price? Or when unexpected fillings or news gets released? It can be an app, browser extension, texting, automatic mailing service, ... and I'm willing to pay a small fee for it. I'm trying to cut back seriously on checking stock prices without the possibility of missing unexpected selling or buying opportunities. I'm confident that this would give some more peace of mind and patience to the more restless investors like myself. If it doesn't exist or if it hasn't been done properly yet, maybe it is an idea someone like oddballstocks could pick up. :) TIA Tom

It's that time of the year again. I guess IBM could be nominated again. I'm watching GM as well. Anyone looking at anything else partly because of this tax loss selling effect?

I guess we are now measuring people's investing skills over periods of barely a week. On the other hand I guess Fairfax can still be proven right on the hedges.

Your 2 days old capital gain is worth more than my entire portfolio, Ha!

Not to worry, you'll have bigger problems then!

I am now a long term FFH holder, too :). I am still thinking how to trick myself into not selling in the next 10-20 years. Make it hard to trade. Different brokerage account and throw the login passwords away/erase them from memory. Contact your broker for a new password in 10-20 years. ;) Not possible in Belgium anymore. Wouldn't be surprised if it was the same for Germany (for frommi).