ericd1

Where do you expect the earnings to come from? The business margins are very low for record high prices. What's broken? Inefficient operations? Sales mix? Something needs to be changed or we'll continue to get the same results.

Today 60% to 70% of global oil is used for transportation - gasoline & diesel. If developing economies demand more cars and trucks at a higher growth rate than the development/adoption of electric vehicles then global oil production won't meet the rising demand. Rising prices will ultimately control demand--and they will be much higher than what we see today. Electric vehicle production/adoption will help offset future demand, but it will take many years to make a significant change in the "global fleet" and lower the demand for oil. Unless there's a significant technological breakthrough in batteries or alternative power sources I believe the oil/energy industry has at least a decade of strong growth ahead.

Sears doesn't attract customers to their stores for clothing...Adding GAP-style products and merchandising might be a terrific assist to Sears and K-Mart...Why try to develop an image and product line when you can integrate and leverage an established brand like GAP...Especially if you can leverage your supply chain and existing distribution services, which are likely under-utilized. Could be his missing link!

Thanks DC...Interesting ideas!!!

Thanks - I'll give them a call~~~

It's still published as a hard copy. :) Twacowfca - how does one go about acquiring a copy or subscription?

I'm going back quite a few years, but at one time Standard and Poors published a "Stock Guide" - It included basic information about thousands of stocks, bonds, pfds, wts, etc. I guess it went the way of other hardcopy publications. I haven't found an electronic version - too bad, it was useful for finding things like wts and their terms.

A couple members of his team recently set out on their own... It remains to be seen how well they will do, but I think they bring a fair amount of experience to the table...and definitely smaller AUM. "GoodHaven Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor that began accepting new accounts in March 2011. Larry Pitkowsky and Keith Trauner, former analysts, portfolio managers, and executives at Fairholme Capital Management, LLC and The Fairholme Fund founded GoodHaven believing we can make money for our clients and ourselves by using a focused portfolio management strategy and a value-investment philosophy." http://goodhavenllc.com/Home_Page.html

From the WSJ "Microsoft is close to a deal to buy Internet phone company Skype Technologies for more than $7 billion, and a deal could be announced as early as Tuesday. Negotiations were wrapping up Monday evening, and a deal could still fall apart. Representatives for Microsoft and Skype declined to comment. A deal would represent Microsoft's most aggressive move yet to play in the increasingly-converged worlds of communication, information and entertainment." Not sure I see the wisdom in this move...

Take look at who is holding Greece's debt - It's the EU governments and banks... http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/29/business/global/29banks.html I don't see the EU letting their weak sister go down...but it could happen.

I let my in-the-money call options simply expire - they are converted to shares , which you pay for (#option contracts x 100 x strike price) and the shares show up in the account the next day.

I had the truck.....LOL...(just kidding)

Bronco - I'm sorry...But they've said it again - $20.00 per share earnings by 2015...I believe 'em... :)

Add IBM to the list - cash cow - 11-12x one of my larger tech holdings

It appears to me that as a broad group REITs (and MLPs) are overvalued as their yields are well below historic averages. Investors have been buying them because bond yields are so low. I don't see earnings and dividends growing fast enough to offset the prices...which means their prices will likely fall, bringing yields back to norms with or without QE2/3...the question is when and how much... Perhaps inverse bond funds or ETFs would be better?

The investment bank's first-quarter income fell 72 percent to $908 million after it paid $1.64 billion in dividends to Berkshire Hathaway Inc. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Goldmans-net-falls-72-pct-apf-3059151960.html;_ylt=AjkXJdx2kFs2Z94PxjQsLve7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1ZWltc2RrBHBvcwMzBHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNnb2xkbWFuYmVhdHM-?x=0&&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

Buffett's payday - Wow...You wake up and in the morning your bank account is up $7.1 billion - No wonder he skips to work. I can see the smile on his face as he and Charlie exchange hi-fives this morning!

This may be a little off topic but I put together a spreadsheet of the last ten returns for BRK, FFH and LUK...2001 thru 2010... Owning 1/3 of each with annual re-balancing would have produced an average annual return of 10.0%, with a max loss of 17.5% in 2008. Not bad compared to the S&P's 1.4% CAGR. I'm sure the numbers look a lot better if you go back 20 years...As Biaggio said I wish I had run across these guys 20 years ago!

When I factor in paying taxes if I raise cash, then I'm not inclined to make any changes in my taxable accounts at this time. Besides I see lots more upside to what I'm holding. We could easily see a decline during the summer doldrums, but I expect another leg up toward the end of the year. QE3 will prevail, jobs are coming back and the economy is strengthening...slowly. My ~40% fixed income position also provides some downside protection, as well as readily available cash if things get crazy or Mr Market hands me a bargain.

Great article and reason enough for me to continue to hold my overweight position! I'm beginning to appreciate the "heads we win big and tails we don't lose very much".

Inverse long-term bond ETFs will do well as inflation heats up! Then long-term bond funds will do well when rates decline. Commodities will move up. There will be some great buying opportunities.

And I'm the Easter Bunny!!!

I believe they have the books available to purchase and sign! I have Templeton's book - good read. Phillips is on my short list to buy.

From: The Maximum Pessimism Report FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

 April 18, 2011

 Books and free ice cream: what’s not to like? OMAHA – Like Warren Buffett himself, Berkshire Hathaway shareholders tend to be voracious readers with a weakness for ice cream. On the night before the company’s annual meeting, they’ll be able to indulge both passions at a reception featuring free Dairy Queen Dilly Bars and more than 20 authors of books related to Berkshire, Buffett and/or investing. The reception will be held from 6 to 8 pm on Friday, April 29 in Mammel Hall, at the corner of Pine and 67th Street on the University of Nebraska at Omaha campus. This is a new location for the popular event, which has outgrown its traditional home at a local Dairy Queen store. No reservations are necessary but annual meeting credentials will be required for the free ice cream. Among the authors who will be signing books available for sale at the event: • Glen Arnold: The Financial Times Guide to Value Investing • Peter Bevelin: Seeking Wisdom, From Darwin to Munger • Bill Buffett: Foods You Will Enjoy: The Story of Buffett’s Store • Peter Buffett: Life Is What You Make It: Find Your Own Path to Fulfillment • Randy Cepuch: A Weekend With Warren Buffett and Other Shareholder Meeting Adventures • Bill Child: How to Build A Business Warren Buffett Would Buy • Lawrence Cunningham: The Essays of Warren Buffett • Patrick Dorsey: The Little Book That Builds Wealth • Sham Gad: The Business of Value Investing • Prem Jain: Buffett Beyond Value • Vitaliy Katsenelson: The Little Book of Sideways Markets • Andy Kilpatrick: Of Permanent Value: The Story of Warren Buffett • Bud Labitan: The Four Filters Invention of Buffett and Munger; Valuations: 30 Intrinsic Value Estimations • Louann Lofton: Warren Buffett Invests Like a Girl (includes interview with Lauren Templeton) • Janet Lowe: The Triumph of Value Investing • Roger Lowenstein: The End of Wall Street • Frank K. Martin: Decade of Delusions • Jeff Matthews: Pilgrimage to Warren Buffett's Omaha • Robert P. Miles: 101 Reasons to Own the World's Greatest Investment; The Warren Buffett CEO; Warren Buffett Wealth • Scott Phillips: Buying at the Maximum Point of Pessimism • John Price: The Conscious Investor • L.J. Rittenhouse: Buffett's Bites: Warren Buffett's Shareholder Letters • Lauren Templeton: Investing the Templeton Way The event will be sponsored by John Wiley and Sons, University of Nebraska at Omaha College of Business, Omaha Airport Hudson Booksellers and The Reader.

I'm down 30# in a year - The first 20# were fairly easy - cut way back on portions, less fat intake, added more fruit and more veggies. It took about nine months. I was still close to being diabetic so I decided to take off 10# more. It has been harder giving up almost all sugar (desserts & candy mostly - esp high fructose corn sugar - it is in everything) and almost all bread/pasta etc. I've been exercising 3x week treadmill & elliptical since starting. Now I don't crave sugar like I did before. Actually sweets aren't as appealing since I've been away from them. I thought about going to the dentist to get my sweet tooth pulled, but now it's not necessary :) I get my test results later this week. Certainly hope they are much improved!