PlanMaestro

Does anyone have a spreadsheet with the historic CORs of individual P&C insurance companies?

As someone that usually only reads the transcripts ... where is the link to the webcast? I cannot find it, it is not under events/webcasts.

Miller or Benmosche? Do you have a link MrB? http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-02-16/aig-s-sale-of-aia-could-cut-treasury-stake-benmosche-says.html

Yep, that is how I read it. Double prize. Check the buyback provision too. Have not confirmed it though. Would be nice to know if someone has run this through a lawyer or one of the banks.

How many have actually read the prospectus fine print of these warrants? Has anyone noticed that some of these warrants, but not all, have adjustments of not only the exercise price but also of the number of warrants? AIG's for example does not include this provision and might explain why they are priced "cheaper" when tested with a Black and Scholes.. This is a feature that I have always liked but never confirmed. Actually I did not even want to ask about it ... when you find something like this you do not want it to spread like wildfire. Berkowitz hinted at this feature in a recent letter so maybe it is time to have a more detailed discussion of the anti-dilution provisions. Are there other non-standard features in the warrants worth noticing?

Volcker letter to the FED and FT: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/02/13/879451/volcker-defends-volcker/ John Reed defends a tough Volcker rule: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-14/ex-citigroup-ceo-reed-says-volcker-rule-needs-pay-curbs-severe-penalties.html John Reed on Glass Steagall: http://vodpod.com/watch/16014142-moyers-company-how-big-banks-are-rewriting-the-rules-of-our-economy?u=planmaestro&c=planmaestro Lobbying efforts: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/02/13/at-volcker-rule-deadline-a-strong-pushback-from-wall-st/

Just surprised than nobody has commented on it: The budget calls for a ten-year, $61 billion “financial crisis responsibility fee” on the largest financial companies. According to the White House document, the fee would be levied “in order to compensate the American people for the extraordinary assistance they provided to Wall Street, as well as to discourage excessive risk-taking.” (This is not a new idea, and was first introduced by the White House in January 2010 amidst the outrage over excessive bonuses on Wall Street). http://www.thenation.com/blog/166217/president-obamas-new-foundation-budget http://biggovernment.com/bshapiro/2012/02/14/obamas-cynical-revenge-on-wall-street-the-61-billion-fine/

Auch, now December is easier to understand.

Now I get, he bought another equal 5% position in Citibank

Mohnish sold 70% of BAC. Not sure why he thinks that WFC is safer (because cheaper is not)

And it is a different decease. Two types of recession: inflation fighting recession vs balance sheet recession. http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/01/1921-and-all-that/ http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/23/more-than-you-want-to-know-about-warren-harding/

For nearly two hours, they peppered him with questions. Where did he get his business background? I read a lot, he replied. Did he have an MBA? No. I dropped out of college. Did he have a clever computer model or algorithm? No, he replied. I don't use spreadsheets much. Could the group look at some of his investment analyses? I don't have any of those either, he said. It's all in my head. The investors were baffled. Well, could he at least tell them where he thought the stock market was headed? "I don't know," Mecham replied. Bravo.

I am having a hard time following this comparison. On the eve of the crisis, Argentina had a debt to GDP ratio slightly above 50% and a deficit around 2.5%. By comparison Greece has a debt to GDP ratio of roughly 140% and a deficit around 10%. Immediately after the Argentinian devaluation the peso went above 3 (33%). Over the next ten years, the peso briefly strengthened to around 2.8 (36%) and currently trades at 4.3 on the official exchange, and over 5 (20%) on the unregulated market. During those 10 years, Argentina's real gdp growth rate averaged over 7% per year. They benefited greatly from surging global prices in their primary export (agriculture) and surging demand from their primary trading partner, Brazil. If Greece devalues/defaults, why would their economy be expected to perform better than Argentina's, and why would their new currency stabilize at a higher rate than Argentina's? What am I missing? That being said, OPAP still seems cheap based on almost any metric. And a monopoly on gambling in a country is almost, by itself, the definition of a "wonderful" business. Does anyone know what percentage of apop's revenues come from turists? There are many different experiences. The one I am closest to is Chile. They devalued in steps from a fixed $39/USD regime in 1982 to $200 in 1986. http://intl.econ.cuhk.edu.hk/exchange_rate_regime/index.php?cid=17 Inflation was very high in the mid 20% and was still 20%+ when the democratic elections were held in 1990. Official unemployment numbers, that included very large government sponsored employment programs, were in the 30%s. GDP fell 13% in 1982, only to fall another 4% in 1983. http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/country/Chile/year-1982/ But as you can see in the GDP PPP per capita chart at the top of that page, there is light at the end of that tunnel.

I have to say, I thought the bolded statement from Papademos was cute considering he is an un-elected, ECB lackey. Unemployment 20.9% and going up after this. This is just the start.

I struggled to find where to publish this interesting historic economic data. And since it would generate some crazy comments anyway, I chose the craziest related thread i could find. On James Grant, the gold standard and the FED http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2012/02/why_not_abolish.html

Cannot find it in google finance, ticker? adr? Building candidates in case of a devaluation. Never bet against people gambling and drinking coke.

Very good detail on the Allstate case: Bad News for Countrywide MBS Investors http://blogs.reuters.com/alison-frankel/2012/02/06/bad-news-for-countrywide-mbs-investors-la-judge-tosses-bofa/

Supposing is good, but finding out is better. - Mark Twain

Was trying to do the same here with other stocks, waiting to put it all in AIG and BAC when they cashed out. Investing is a game of regrets, balancing what and when to buy and sell. If I did not buy BAC and AIG at those prices, and many in this board probably thought the same, and they run afterwards, as it happened, I would have kicked myself for eternity. Some stocks are on third, others on second, all ready to run to home. But it is hard to predict which ones are going to get their single first. Did I get my baseball right?

And Eric "Rothstein" has done his due dilligence and I will stop here.

I was thinking on the downside but that works too

Ha ha ha. So many movies come to mind, ha ha ha. Only one question Eric. You are not only betting all, or mostly all, but you are also betting on the timing of the event, aren't you? PS: I would not be able to convince my wife of doing something remotely like this, lucky you.

When to bet it all ... Arnold Rothstein the gambler

Ericopoly = Arnold Rothstein from Boardwalk Empire 8) hehehe but he thought of himself a gambler not a value investor ... and he died young I think http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arnold_Rothstein

Amen from a Chilean that lived through the 1982 crisis, married with a Mexican that lived through the 1994 crisis. A little history can put some perspective on "end of the world" premonitions. It was bad but we recovered, and the companies with the right balance sheet and cash flow lived and prospered.