PlanMaestro

Well, I think it is implied. To reach those capital levels there is not much left for anyone else.

From Monday: Matthew D. O'Connor Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division I'm going to sneak in one more and then we'll open up to audience the questions here. But as we think about -- let's just combine kind of mortgage put back and litigation costs combined here, obviously, it's been very costly for you to date, costly for the industry in various areas. How much through of this -- how much left is there of this -- it seems like things keep cropping up and it's not even just the mortgage put back right there, it's just various investigations into different parts of banking and charges being taken? Brian T. Moynihan Well, I think we are still -- if you look at the P&L, everything pales by comparison what we did in the quarter last year. We put up $20 billion. But if you think about the amount of balance sheet position we have between the reps and warranties reserves and the litigation reserves and things like that, there's a lot of money that's been put up on the various pieces and I won't go through it in detail here. But think about what we done the agency and a non-agency and $8.5 billion settlement, and all that stuff. So a lot of that has been put on the balance sheet. And so you can debate about whether we'll move a little bit, but a lot of these were put on the balance sheet. The real cost now is the operational cost.

AIG's was a long shot from the beginning, but considering Judge Mariana Pfaelzer's consisting ruling against BAC it is very nice. "filed more than three years after the bonds were first sold" should take care of all the headache vintages. (2005-2008) GSEs: SETTLED. But Fannie asking to putback mortgage with failing insurance. Private Label: Article 77 to go. Monolines: AGO SETTLED, MBIA and AMBAC to go Foreclosure/Robosigning: MOST AGs SETTLED, a couple of AGs to go. Merrill Acquisition: SETTLED AIG: in process, but far cry. DISMISSED FHFA: just starting

Full presentation including his 9 points. The best plan I've seen not only to handle this mess but also to inject capital to support housing … and as he says: * FHFA projects that Fannie and Freddie will out-earn the Treasury dividend through 2014 * Recent earnings reports are proving these projections accurate and highlighting the ability to build capital http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/WilsonCenter5.22.12.BlueprintforHousingFinanceReform.pdf 1. Immediately raise the guarantee fees (g-fees) that they charge on MBS to increase reserves and build capital 2. Refocus on core guarantee businesses and wind down “retained portfolios” of mortgages and related securities 3. Eliminate the dividend on the outstanding Treasury Preferred Stock so the reformed guarantee businesses can use revenues from the increased g-fees to rebuild their capital base and pave the way for taxpayers to recover their entire investment 4. Contribute infrastructure to establish a utility for issuing conforming MBS 5. Build reserves at the FMIC to protect taxpayers from future losses 6. Terminate the FHFA conservatorships once the reformed guarantee businesses at Fannie and Freddie have sufficient capital 7. Install ordinary, non-politicized corporate governance by re-chartering the reformed guarantee businesses of Fannie and Freddie as Delaware corporations 8. Treasury can convert its preferred stock to common stock and divest its stake over time into the public equity markets 9. the Financial Stability Oversight Council should designate them “covered financial companies,” subject to enhanced supervision by the Federal Reserve

One of the key guys behind the AIG restructuring throws his hat into the GSE ring. If he includes the deferred tax allowance people might say it is almost the same as AIG's. Could Fannie and Freddie Pay Back Taxpayers Someday? http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2012/05/22/could-fannie-and-freddie-pay-back-taxpayers-someday/?mod=google_news_blog The idea is for Fannie and Freddie to be spun off from the government as private companies again. This time, however, they would have solid protection against potential losses rather than the thin capital cushions that contributed to their near-failure. And a new government agency would provide a further backstop. How would Fannie and Freddie effectively reboot their operations? Mr. Millstein proposes that the mortgage giants stop paying the 10% annual dividend they currently must pay to the Treasury at a cumulative cost of $41 billion to date. They would also pour their earnings into the creation of an “enormous” capital cushion of around $120 billion to $140 billion to absorb losses. That would be about four times the size of the cushion before Fannie and Freddie’s takeover. The government would convert the preferred stock holdings in Fannie and Freddie into common shares and gradually sell off those holdings, hypothetically starting to repay taxpayers by 2016. Fannie and Freddie’s mortgage holdings and debt, meanwhile would be spun off into a “bad bank” structure. “We can re-engineer Fannie and Freddie’s (finances)…so as to put them on path so they can actually pay the taxpayers back,” Mr. Millstein said in a presentation at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in the nation’s capital. “Not a small consideration in a town looking for money.”

Shale Gas Set to Reshape Trucking http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304707604577422192910235090.html But today, truck manufacturers are embracing natural gas for everything from bi-fuel pickup trucks like the Chevy Silverado HD to 18-wheelers that can burn natural gas either compressed, called CNG, or super-chilled, called LNG. Navistar International Corp., Cummins Inc. and General Motors Co. all are courting the market with new natural-gas powered trucks or engines. Navistar's goal is to "expand to a full range of products using natural gas in the next 18 months," says Eric Tech, president of Navistar's engine business. This year, the Illinois company is introducing delivery trucks burning natural gas. Next year, it is adding long-haul trucks with its biggest engines. Mr. Tech thinks that in a couple of years, one in three Navistar trucks sold will burn natural gas. "This is not a subsidy-driven market," Mr. Tech says. "It's developing on its own because the economics are compelling." Corporations like UPS and AT&T are buying the vehicles. AT&T recently ordered 1,200 Chevrolet Express cargo vans equipped to run on compressed natural gas, which General Motors said was its largest CNG vehicle order ever. Ryder Systems began renting out natural gas trucks in California last year, so customers could kick the tires. The response has been so strong Ryder is expanding the program to Michigan and Arizona. And it's introducing them in truck clusters it operates for big box retailers like Staples Inc. SPLS and manufacturers including carpet-maker Mohawk Industries Inc.

Dell was the best performing stock of the 90s. Partly because its moat was somewhat overstated, and mainly because we were in a tech bubble (you might have heard of it ;D). Dell the stock performed so well that its valuation was out of whack with reality. Now 15 years later: * check the earnings per share then and now * check the P/E then and now * check the cash on hand then and now * check the recurring earnings then and now. The problem was Dell then, the stock and investors, not Dell now. There is a difference between a good company and a good stock. Disclosure: I don't have Dell.

Point taken in financials oddball. There are other cheap sectors though. Hey, we have all kind of people in this forum to help. Just the other day I leaned that potash was positively charged and was not so easy to wash out. Wow. OK, one SME idea to look at. Ancestry ACOM. I found it in Zeke's port and the numbers look great. I was only stopped in my tracks after the following post: http://www.portfolio14.com/2012/04/i-am-still-easiest-person-to-fool.html. Anyone else following it?

I remember someone saying we were spoiled last December ;) Per Share Cash and equivalent $7.1 Debt $5.0 FCF/share $2.5 - $3.0 Price $13.0

Shares in the company, which like rival Hewlett-Packard Co is losing market share to mobile devices such as Apple Inc's iPad, dived more than 9 percent in after hours trade. The world's No. 3 PC maker forecast a 2 to 4 percent revenue gain this fiscal quarter, to $14.7 billion to $15 billion, well short of the $15.4 billion Wall Street had been expecting. "Clearly we are seeing a bit more challenging demand environment," Dell Chief Financial Officer Brian Gladden said in an interview. "Europe, in general, was down for us."

It is a good business but not everyone can be extraordinary. Has anyone seen Aldi's numbers?

Company is private but the numbers are public http://www.ikea.com/ms/en_CN/about_ikea/press/press_releases/Welcome_inside_2010.pdf

That is a good one txlaw and it seems that the trials against them and State Street are doing OK.

For the sake of debate, why look for golden needles in the haystack when large nuggets are on plain sight? There has been some steady flow of ideas. The ones I've been involved in the discussion: Tarp warrants, ZION/WT, HIG/WT, CRBC, CTZ/A, GKK, GKK/A, CT, WIBC, RIMM, FIGI (struggling), ABH. But you have to say, large caps American and European are appetizing and there is always time to find good small caps.

http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFL4E8GL1BS20120521?sp=true Chinese buyers are deferring or have defaulted on coal and iron ore deliveries following a drop in prices, traders said, providing more evidence that a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy is hitting its appetite for commodities.

Was not him but Ina Drew that hired Irvin Goldman. All the reports show that she was given a long leash because of her long history of performance with Jp Morgan and Chemical (around 30 years). Jamie's was a mistake, but a different kind of mistake that anyone that has worked in a large organization can relate. There are still many questions unresolved: - Why the automatic risk stop loses were deactivated by Irvin Goldman? - Why Achilles Macris changed the VAR methodology and did it have anything to with the trade? - Did Jamie Dimon know about all these?

I think it is $9.79, expiration date of June 26, 2019, DPS adjustment of the strike price above $0.05, http://variantperceptions.wordpress.com/2012/04/01/tarp-warrants-let-every-eye-negotiate-for-itself/

Probably because management was taking action (VA in runoff, selling life insurance businesses)

Tempting ... if I just did not dislike so much the CEO. Time to check the numbers again.

Good points. My main worries with the Argentinian banks is a possible nationalization not the economy. I do not think it is a high probability event though. Bank nationalizations in LATAM has been more a matter "have to" that "want to" compared with energy and mining for example. Governments do not like to be involved in banks, it is only headaches for a bureaucracy. I like Banco Frances too, and dropped another 6% today, but it is part of BBVA and diplomatic relations with Spain are not in the best standing and might get in-between. K already used some strong language threatening the Spaniards with utilities and bank nationalizations ... where it hurts them (Endesa, BBVA, Santander).

If not now, when? If not he, who?

jjsto, have you checked the banks? I am following Banco Macro (BMA) that has been able to navigate all type of governments and was in good standing with the Ks. Capital ratios look good and the restriction to dividend payments will build its capital reserves to survive a crisis. http://www.macro.com.ar/dnl/infoFinanciera/Presentacion%204Q11.pdf

Argentinian stocks crashed today ... Argentina: pressure mounts on the peso http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/05/14/argentina-pressure-mounts-on-the-peso/ For Argentines today, getting their hands on dollars has become a titanic task. Everyone, it seems, has both seen them and wants them. But virtually none are to be had, thanks to tighter currency controls in place since last week, in which most applications to buy dollars (a requirement since last October) have been rejected. The result? An unofficial exchange rate that touched a record high of 5.18 pesos to the dollar, compared with a the lagging official rate of around 4.35, which the central bank manages, and appears keen not to let go too fast. .... Devaluation would stoke inflation – an elephant-in-the-room-style problem which Fernández prefers not to recognise. She has urged unions to show restraint and rationality in wage demands which means, in other words, that they accept below-inflation rises or a wage cut. Yet there are some signs that the central bank is willing to devalue a little faster than hitherto thought, says Estudio Bein, a local consultancy.

Fukuyama China has banished Bo but not the ‘bad emperor’ problem http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c71ff938-99c9-11e1-aa6d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1uh9jfkw7 This is why the recently purged Bo Xilai was such a threat to the system. Using his base in Chongqing, he used the media to build up his own authority, which was strong already given his status as a princeling, or son of a revolutionary hero. He was ruthless in the use of state power to go after not just criminals and corrupt officials but businessmen and rivals who had accumulated too much power and wealth. He revived Mao-era mobilisation tactics such as the singing of revolutionary songs at rallies. Unlike his grey compatriots, he could have dominated the CPC leadership through an independent power base had he been promoted to the standing committee. It therefore makes sense that Hu Jintao and the leadership should use the scandal to eliminate him from consideration and remove the bad emperor before he ascended to the throne. The incident has revealed a deep problem in China – the lack of formal institutions and of a real rule of law. The rules the Chinese leadership follows are neither embedded in the constitution, clearly articulated, nor enforced by a judicial system. They are internal rules of the CPC, which have to be inferred from its behaviour. Had Mr Bo succeeded in getting on to the standing committee, he could have overturned them. So the apparent institutionalisation of the Chinese authoritarian system is largely a mirage. The CPC has not solved the bad emperor problem, nor will it until it develops something like a genuine rule of law with all of the transparency and formal institutionalisation that entails.

Japan insolvent. Not illiquid, insolvent. That is a thought.