Sweet

IMO biotech is going to be a major growth area, I have a preference for the ETFs since picking biotech companies is mostly like a lottery. I don’t have a position in a Biotech ETF currently but looking to build one. Have an interest in Oxford Nanopore, small British DNA sequencing company that was put on the map by covid. They really have two elements to their business, covid related revenue which is declining rapidly, and everything else life science related where revenue is growing rapidly. Outside of that I think there is a good chance that growth slows dramatically in many companies and maybe the play is high quality dividend or buyback stocks. Although, just as I type that, there is a lot of the world where living standards will rise significant in the next 50 years - 4 billion people… so idk

^ sounds unsustainable.

I like Cramer too. His CNBC interview on the financial crisis is one of the greatest things on television. He also has made his fair share of decent calls. However, there is something uncanny about this timing, he seems to say things near the top and bottoms lol

A useful accompaniment to this thread would be when to sell. I recently read an opinion that was well supported that you should never sell food companies. I noted @dealraker comments about having a few go to zero, but several 100 baggers. You only have to get a few right.

An opinion shared by others, including a couple of famous investors supposedly revered by this board.

Honestly Xerxes, some of what you wrote is a pile of garbage. To imply that I and others and are simply saying Iran and the US don’t get along because Iran is interfering in the region is a deliberate or accidental misreading of what was said. It’s clear than US and Iran’s interests are not aligned, the idealogical differences are great, and there is a history there that makes reconciliation difficult. About that history, and the Western sponsored coup, I’m betting we all know about it. It’s 2022, Wikipedia is free, and what you’re saying is unlikely to be new information to anyone. You obviously have quite a dim view of everyone else’s grasp of history, we aren’t all ignorant and we don’t require the lecture. Yes the US could have made no distinction between the Saudi citizens and Saudi government, but they did, and not just because it was convenient, but because there actually IS a distinction. And btw this is a discussion about energy, perhaps you could go back and reread some of what was argued. That you think energy wasn’t mentioned is proof you didn’t really read it or take the time to understand it.

It's not about being friends though. It's about shovelling money into the pockets of rivals, or in the case of Russia an enemy (I'm European). Russia then turns around and uses that money to buy weapons to fund wars and undermine Europe. It's also about the ability the wage war, and to remove the leverage of Russia (for example) in controlling and influencing our political affairs. The West cannot have critical supply chains reliant on hostile foreign powers. I've also long been against using China as the world's sweat shop for cheap goods. In the West we have funded the rise of a geopolitical competitor unlike any other, that is authoritarian in nature, who not only doesn't share our values but actively undermines them. It's not about the money. Cheap doesn't always mean good. Economic, energy and military security come at a cost. You are advocating that we bargain away strategic advantages for a few bucks. Money isn't everything in life. I personally have no interest in making money by investing in China or Russia.

Many of the 9/11 guys were Saudis, but it was not backed by the Saudi government. Important distinction. Those hijackers were sheltered and aided by the Taliban in Afghanistan. Al Qaeda had an agreement with the Taliban, and received support from Iran in the 90s. The US State Department has Iran as a state sponsor or terrorism and has several publications available online documenting their global terrorist networks and their activities through the middle east and indeed plots on US soil. Contrast that with the Saudis, who have a long-standing relationship with the US to provide energy in return for security. I wouldn't say the Saudis are allies in the same way that the US and UK are, but there has been long standing cooperation there that is meaningful. It doesn't make sense to compare Iran and Saudi Arabia as being similar. They aren't. One is a hostile foreign power with global terrorist networks, the other is not.

One is a friendly pariah state generally, and largest cooperative and responsive to Western interests. One is not and actively seeks to undermine it.

They want to destroy a key Middle Eastern ally - Israel. They have attacked our allies in the region - Saudis - and support rebels in Yemen to attack them. They support and funds a wide range of paramilitary and terrorist grouped which have launched attacks on the West I.e. they are state sponsors of terrorism. Got their noses in Lebanon and Syria and have destabilised those countries. And you can’t understand and why we can’t be friends? Lol

I don’t think you can get rich through diversification. Five to ten stocks IMO.

The West’s approach to weaning itself off fossil fuels forces Middle Eastern oil producers to look for alternative partners. Biden in particular has had scant regard for the interests or concerns of the Saudis and at one point discussed the withholding of important defensive missile systems. Saudis view it as a one sided relationship that can’t be depended on. Biden and his team should have been a bit smarter about this. Saudis are our friends, and it makes sense to have them as allies, even if their leadership is authoritarian. They have until recently worked in a partnership with the West but no more. From a Saudi point of view the cuts today make sense.

It’s not really the oil. It is mostly gas prices, and refined products to a lesser degree. The oil spike was very very temporary. There is something seriously wrong with supply chains, or too much money printed, maybe both that has kicked the fed into gear. Don’t think this current mess has been driven by oil, gas maybe yes. Also curious about what is going on in China, something not right. Tempting to just blame it all on covid but don’t think that’s the full story.

Not nice out there. USD is a wrecking ball. Global macro overshadowing everything. Risk off moves.

agree. Really these stocks should be higher. Everything takes time of course but the energy index is still at near historic lows.

Wheat is really only a big problem for some Middle East and African countries which very often don’t have the land necessary to grow the stuff. Not an issue for most of Europe and North America. Surprising them that many of those countries aren’t more opposed to the invasion.

Is it not obvious? No they haven’t.

Anas Alhajji said that nearly all of Irans stored ‘oil’ was actually condensate that few actually want. The market is short heavy crude, the light stuff not so much.

That’s a false framing though. You can be pro-west and also believe the world is not black or white. Many books are critical of the West and our governments. Good luck criticising Putin or Xi in their respective countries.

That would be a bad thing?

Key question to this is how much you need each year to live off. Currently a no for me, and I don’t think I would ever want to live off investments.

Iran deal looks likely, my own view is Iran has been getting a lot more oil to the market than it lets on. Still for sure some production will come back in the next 1-2 years plus they will be able to get the market price. The cynic in me says that Iran agreeing to a deal may be related to Russian sanctions kicking in. EU embargo on Russian oil is only a few months away, Russian oil may end up be exported from Iranian ports as ‘Iranian’ oil.

Can you trust China? Do you believe your capital is protected and would be free from interference by the Chinese government? Can you trust the financials of companies, that they are telling the truth and not lying or masking problems at the heart of businesses? Is there a regulator that is independent, and will do the right thing even if the government don’t like it? For me the answer to all of the above is no. Therefore I have to stay away from any company based or have the vast majority of their business in China. I think there is an unappreciated chance that your holdings would go to zero.

Xi and the CCP control China, therefore it is a China problem. Like the Nazis made Germany a global problem in WW2.