Sweet

He should, just to mess with those that hate him.

I can’t be the only one who regularly reads these columns and think they are either fake or some of the silliest rich people on the planet: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/we-live-in-purgatory-my-wife-has-a-multimillion-dollar-trust-fund-but-my-mother-in-law-controls-it-we-earn-400-000-and-spend-beyond-our-means-whats-our-next-move-5e3d3820?mod=home-page This isn’t even that bad.

On the diversity topic. I know there were some Universities in the UK adverting grants only for women. I believe it was a L’Oreal women in science scheme, promoted by the Universities. Wonder if Gillette sponsored a men in science scheme, and only men could apply, how long it would take to make the BBC news front page.

EIA providing an explanation as to why the US oil weekly, and to a lesser extent the monthly, are all messed up, and what they intend to do about it:

If they are expecting oil to hover around $70 - which I understand is their upper limit for purchase - I think they will be disappointed. They should put a giant bid at $70 and just let it sit.

Is oil likely to be at the price they want to purchase at, especially sour crude? Not sure I see prices at that level for a while.

Yeh, not sure why I was of the view that it was a million minimum buy. I looked it up years ago on my then broker

Thanks. For some reason I thought it was much higher. I'm on Schwab, will check it out. I thought it was 1 million minimum buy for some reason.

I have never bought a Treasury before, what’s the minimum buy size?

This is the same type of argument I’ve seen again and again from 2009 on as the market just ripped higher. We always associate the ‘this time it is different’ phrase with irrational exuberance and market tops. However I see it far more often from those always so negative on the markets. This time there is no ZIRP. Interest rates are gravity for stocks but it doesn’t following that the ass is going to fall out of markets. If in the long term the economy is growing and companies are making more money, stocks are likely to go up.

Yeh, I’m not seeing rampant inflation anymore. I could see it a year ago, but where has it been in recent months?

2015 did not have two consecutive quarters of negative growth: Q4 '15: +0.6% Q3 '15: +1.3% Q2 '15: +2.3% Q1 '15: +3.3% The working definition of what is considered a recession was always two negative quarter until last year. The economy did contract for two quarters - it wasn’t a quarterly anomaly. There is a chance that we have had the recession and the bottom is in. And remember, the covid induced recession was enormous, and it wiped out a lot of businesses and a lot of wealth. I’m not claiming to know if the bottom is in, because I can’t know, but I do feel there is an elephant in the room.

Didn't we have a recession? Or do believe that two negative quarters is no longer a recession anymore?

I know this model has been mentioned here before: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-is-close-to-being-fairly-valued-and-its-long-term-prospects-arent-great-11675975553?mod=home-page

I can read 500 pages if I skim most of it too lol. That’s how I prefer to read actually ha

I don’t think it’s possible to read 500 pages a day consistently. If you read a page a minute would take you 8+ hours to read 500 pages. Possible to do that every now and again but consistently, no way.

I wouldn’t assume that Munger doesn’t understand crypto. Just because his views don’t align with your own doesn’t mean he doesn’t understand it. Conceptually crypto is not complicated.

We had a recession already. We had -1.6% and 0.6% in Q1 and Q2 respectively last year. That's always been considered a recession....

No offence, but this is exactly the type of mental masturbation Hussman did as he sat out of the market while it ripped 100s% higher. It’s also exactly the type of thing I used to think too. I gave up on market timing long ago because it cost me so much money.

Yeh Burry I would count more as a trader. Another guy who is nearly always negative when you hear from him is Stanley Druckenmiller, wrongly advertised as an investors, he’s actually a trader that, among other things, uses technical analysis to try and time markets. Both of them wrong on big stock market macro calls the past 10 ish years. Ironically Druckenmiller, despite sounding bearish, is very often long lol.

This is what the bears do. They find a metric which states - x predicted the last y recessions, and this indicates that the bear market isn’t over. Or something similar. They then use that to sell their thesis. My experience is that far more often than not their calls are wrong. Hussman is the perfect example of this, he had data like this coming out of his ass, and yet he was dead wrong year after year. Jim Chanos performance - anyone know what it is? I don’t think it’s very good. Even his short portfolio, I remember him in an interview saying that his short positions make very little money. Regarding Jim Chanos factoid, it’s irrelevant. This bear market may or may not be over, but those data mined statistics once found are often immediately proven wrong. Next year we will get a new one.

Response: https://hindenburgresearch.com/adani-response/

Depends how big your stake was?

I don’t think anyone knew it would become this popular, or that it was intended to be popular. I see characteristics though that make me think, dam, wouldn’t it be crazy if this was a government honey trap for all the criminals. Who knows though.

So many pundits predicting economic catastrophe in Europe this Winter and in 2023. We are only a month in to be fair, but those predictions are already looking sour.