Sweet

So Luca, you’re saying we would be better off closer to Russia whilst simultaneously heralding that Russia would never attack us because of NATO. Right. European tech companies cannot hold a candle to US. I wish it wasn’t the case but it’s simply a fact that America beats Europe easily on innovation and technology.

I’m saying your ideas are fringe to inform others reading along that I’ve never met anybody in Europe who shares your belief. They are fringe because it’s truly a moronic take and I think the reasons why are self-evident. There is a saying Luca, ‘peace through strength’ and another which is ‘weakness invites aggression’. Two percent was never appropriate. Putin has been picking away at Ukraine for nearly a decade so it’s strange that Europe only just found religion. Russian energy and German engineering is not an economic threat to the US. The US has pulled away from Europe many years before the Ukraine war. Look at the divergence in economic performance from 2008 to the Russian invasion. There is little innovation in Europe, we are over taxed and over regulated. Russia is not an adversary? LMAO! You’re insane.

Biden was never going to sort the border to the satisfaction of the GOP and its supporters. I think this was clear a good while ago. And I think Biden was more than happy to lay the blame for Ukraine at the feet of the GOP (even though he had the power to gift weapons to Ukraine without Congress).

Yes Luca, a sphere of influence thousands of miles away. It’s not a new concept. A war between the US and China in the Eastern Pacific is a real possibility in the future, not according to me, but according to the US military. Nuclear war - unlikely. You don’t know who bombed the Nord pipeline anymore than I do.

I’m European Luca, and I find some of your beliefs astonishing. Your view that we should be closer to Russia and China is fringe and that’s a charitable interpretation. I don’t know anybody else, especially after the invasion of Ukraine, who thinks we would be better off closer to Russia. Many European countries have not been meeting their 2% defence spending commitment for a long time. Our security has been subsidised by the US for decades. We should have been more independent militarily decades ago. We need to get real. And instead of thanking Americans from saving Eastern Europe from Russian domination and subsidising our security we get ungrateful comments like yours? Are you serious with that crap? Trump and Blinken are also right on trade. By trading with nations which are our adversaries we are helping them get strong and then they use that to undermine our values and way of life. No thank you.

War is expensive. The package is immediate and urgent, it perhaps doesn’t feel that way in the US, but it’s very different in Ukraine. I know many Americans don’t give a crap about Ukraine and that Russia threatening to overrun their country. The benefits to America from a defeated Russia aren’t immediately obvious either. In recent history America stood for something, it exported its values and beliefs to other countries, helped defend them and along the way made friends and became most powerful country in the world. That sphere of influence are a buffer to hostile nations. If America had withdrew from WW2 or the Cold War, its friends could have been overrun and America would have been less prosperous, more isolated and less secure. Is America secure if China and Russia team up whilst they simultaneously chip away at Americas friends? Of course not. That sphere of influence that America has in Europe and Asian contributes massively to its security. It’s in the best interest of the US and the West generally to ensure Ukraine survives. Trump was right about European nations. They don’t pay enough to their own defence, they aren’t grateful for US assistance, and they were beholden to Russian energy. I remember he got shit for this but he nailed it. Europeans know the value of American support now:

Some of this is of course true but I also think some of it verges on conspiracy theory as well. I don’t think there is some plot to hand more control to government, either with the Ukraine or Israel war.

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/china-jan-mar-foreign-direct-investment-fell-26-1-on-year-to-cny301-67-bln-1f812956 FDI into China dropped 26% yoy

Who do you mean? In America or Europe? Or in Israel?

I wonder how widespread this is? It may explain some of the multiple differences between Europe and US:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-68838219 Good article that mixes the concerns of the West, the receding of manufacturer from China, and shows that even though we are not at war with China there is a real human cost to this as well. Can't help but feel sorry for the many ordinary Chinese - although I would note that 40 years ago it was Western workers that were in the same boat. Still a sober story.

Good. I do think this is too important. And I think it gets the Ukraine monkey off their back and it allows the GOP to return the focus to the border.

Thanks. That’s not 5.3%

Where are you getting those GDP figures from?

Efficient for who though? You’re thinking of it as a buyer. If you are a seller of options, and Tesla is known for its large price swings, it makes sense that ATM options are going to have a lot of volatility / time priced in. When the option is far away from the money the more it behaves like owning the underlying stocks and that is why there is a lot less volatility / time etc costs baked in. Tesla looks to be priced like many other options are, it would be difficult to make money on ATM except through enormous swings. I’d say that’s fairly efficient. Sometimes the options markets are really REALLY out of whack though. I’m thinking oil etfs options were priced so low in 2020 it was laughable. So yeh, that price structure on Tesla seems pretty normal.

You aren’t missing anything, it is a ‘better deal’ and it’s somewhat safer too. However if Tesla the $157 puts cost less to own the same amount.

Why is it bold to post that? I didn’t detect anyone complaining about commentary like this.

Certainly seems possible. Disagree and agree with Greg here, Powell imo has done a very good job, but less talk please JP.

Oil lower - hard to believe.

Thanks for the explainer. Yeh no 30 year fixed from where I am from. Thirty year fixed would have been amazing when I bought.

Agree with this. I had a friend who asked me ‘what’s the point of saving money, isn’t it better to enjoy it’. I get what he means, but I said to him that even though I hadn’t spent the money it was buying me other things. He was confused. I think some get it and many don’t. Question, what do you mean by ‘mortgage pay down magic’?

Sorta feel the same, and I read on Twitter it’s drones that fly about 200 mph which will be easily intercepted if true.

I’d be shocked if we didn’t see a big drop Monday, but this could fizzle provided the drones don’t cause major damage. The last thing Biden wants is another war. Remember when Iran struck the Saudis? Trump and the Saudis didn’t reply immediately. Let things settle and then took out the military guy (cannot remember his name). Might be the same playbook here.

Bound to spike higher. I think what matters here is if Israel decide to respond to Iran. Conceivably if nearly all of them are intercepted then I can see it fizzling out. However, I could also see the US and Israel just deciding fuck it, this is the last straw.

Luca, respectfully, I don’t know what you are talking about. ‘Buys the government’ - really? In the US there is undoubtedly too much money in politics, way too much, but ‘buy the government’ - I don’t see that. There have been several rebuttals of that paper which I could find online which argue the analysis and conclusions are flawed. Nevertheless I agree with the paper that rich influential people have an outsized impact on government policy, that is obvious, but that’s far away from saying it’s a capitalist oligarchy. The money and lobbying in the US does need addressed. I disagree that ordinary people have no impact. This paper was published before the 2016 election of Trump and the Brexit vote in the UK which categorically destroys such an idea. In both instances the vast majority of influence groups and rich people took the side which opposed Trump and Brexit and they lost. Another recent example is the referendum defeat in Ireland.