gfp
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Posts posted by gfp
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For 5 years and basic shares outstanding the only new company to show up near the top of the screener was Ted Weschler's pick RH - the old Restoration Hardware. Seems like AGO should show up on that list. Bad data I guess.
Kind of jumps out at you how popular these repurchases are with retailers. I guess the AutoZone example influenced a bunch of weaker companies to try it - several will be filing bankruptcy as a result. DDS is family controlled and the huge reduction in share count doesn't even capture the multiple special dividends they have issued. Got to love actual owner operators.
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9 hours ago, Stuart D said:
AGO would be up there. Halving their share count in the last 5yrs
Yes, it seems like the TIKR screener is leaving out some companies that look like they should make the top of the list. Maybe there is some bad data or it is the fact that I screened for fully diluted share count and we are looking at shares outstanding for most of these companies. I'll try the screener using shares outstanding and see if it spits out different companies.
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These results are from TIKR and for US and Canada only. I don't know how good their Canadian data is. Most of the results were US listed companies.
LBTYK didn't make the 10 year list because they were still issuing new shares 2012-2016. Since that peak they have retired a lot of stock. I'm sure they placed somewhere near the top on the 5 year list (but not in the top few that I posted).
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29 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:
Market reacting today learning Viking has trimmed some of his FFH positionIt's funny, for me today was the day the dividend actually cleared the accounts. If you were inclined to reinvest the dividend at least there was a dip. The "Viking" dip!
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Thanks for posting that. It makes a lot of sense to me. My experience speaking with Indian friends about this is the sentiment from that article, "for Indian people, this isn't news."
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I would also be interested in a discussion of how this may effect Fairfax India (because that is what I actually own). One the one hand, it seems like it would lower valuations for things like Adani's airports, which are often used as 'comps' for BIAL - this would certainly hurt the valuation Anchorage is awarded in any IPO. Also, Fairfax India is also using Mauritius for some part of their business structure that I don't pretend to understand - which was one of the criticisms of Adani entities if I understand correctly (likely I don't).
On the other hand, it could help Fairfax India's chances in winning bids for assets that Adani group companies may have also been bidding for. And if government entities like the Life Insurance company are already very exposed to Adani controlled entities there is a value to diversifying some with Fairfax.
There is also the possibility that even though everyone seemed to agree the stuff was highly overvalued and lots of people involved were crooks - the attention and results of the attention could mark a change in the cycle.
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The Energy thread discussions of CVX made me curious to run some basic screens on current "cannibals" so I thought I would post some here to not clutter up the Energy thread further.
I ran a screen for 5 year periods ending 2022 and ranked by CAGR of diluted avg. shares outstanding. I took out the not-real companies and data errors.
For 5 year period you get:
Ticker, CAGR diluted share count (per year avg.)
DDS (9.71%)
SYF (9.58%)
CTRN (9.27%)
HPQ (9.21%)
ORCL (7.96%)
BBBY (7.89%)ATKR (7.83%)
SGU (7.73%)
JACK (7.23%)
JEF (7.17%)
MCK (7.12%)
HIBB (7.02%)
TOL (6.99%)
GME (6.9%)ALLY (6.89%)
SLG (6.66%)
AZO (6.53%)
ZION (6.44%)
WBBW (6.4%)
BIG (6.22%)
C (6.15%)
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For 10 year period you get:
SGU (4.92%)
WAFD (4.82%)
MCK (4.76%)
HFBL (4.75%)
TRV (4.75%)
GCO (4.73%)
AAPL (4.72%)
CTRN (4.7%)
NICK (4.53%)
KR (4.46%)
URBN (4.43%)
REX (4.2%)
C (4.2%)
QCOM (4.17%)
UNP (4.15%)
...
some Buffett Holdings:
BK
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/BK/bank-of-new-york-mellon/shares-outstanding
AXP
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AXP/american-express/shares-outstanding
BAC
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/BAC/bank-of-america/shares-outstanding
C
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/C/citigroup/shares-outstanding
MCO
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/MCO/moodys/shares-outstanding
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3 minutes ago, Gregmal said:
Off the top of my head I dont know of many that can rival the trio of AZO, DDS, and NVR.
Oh yeah I forgot Dillard's. Unfortunately you will also usually see bad outcomes on this list like BBBY and GME. Jack in the Box shows up over 10 year periods but recently stopped. Maybe they will start again with the large re-franchising effort.
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29 minutes ago, FCharlie said:
I'm curious who the top 5 cannibals are? I would guess AutoZone would be up there somewhere. Maybe Apple?
Apple would be high (probably absolute highest) in terms of dollars spent repurchasing shares, but not in percentage reduction in outstanding shares. AZO has been at it for a long time at high annual percentages. DaVita for a shorter period of time but high annual percentages. You sort of have to define your terms, percentage reduction in shares outstanding over 10 years? 5 years? etc.. Curious what Spek's list spits out and what the parameters of the screen are.
This site is free and fun to play around with. They will chart shares outstanding over time for a company if they have the data. The data isn't Bloomberg quality (Q4 figures are usually off since the 10K data is presented a bit different from the 10Qs, but it gets the gist with a slight delay). You can try other tickers and select "Shares Outstanding."
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AZO/autozone/shares-outstanding
Ebay, HPQ, etc.. There are some companies that have ramped up the percentages recently (ALLY comes to mind) - but jury is definitely out on if they can continue at this pace sustainably.
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All that is probably due to the botched opening on the NYSE yesterday. The NYSE and brokers have now busted those trades but it still showed up in WSJ's data when they went to press. Example chart of VZ:
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It's always interesting seeing the various regional differences in tipping. I probably live in one of the highest % tipping cities in the world. New Orleans, LA, USA is a very service-dominated economy. We don't have a lot of "good" jobs here but service industry folks can make a good living (and pay their rent on time thankfully). It is very common here to tip almost everyone 20-25% on many categories of services. Nothing exceptional - that's the base rate. I tip the barber ~40% (15 on 35) but that is because he charges me less than everyone else for the haircut. People tip on takeout food from a real restaurant. Nobody tips anything at a truly "fast food" place like McDonalds, Wendy's or Popeye's. Bartenders are tipped at least a dollar a drink at a dive, sometimes much more if it is a tip at the end type situation. Since 2005 we also have a lot of cash only bars that just decided they would remain cash only after Hurricane Katrina gave them an excuse. You leave New Orleans and barely see cash anymore. European tourists that come to New Orleans are horrified and so are their servers.
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Thanks for the data points. There is no doubt that Q4 and Q1 are going to be ugly quarters at GEICO. But BRK may do just fine despite that.
Personally, I am eagerly awaiting the disclosure of how many Taiwan Semiconductor shares Berkshire owned at year end. (off topic)
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Honestly for the short duration 3-6 months, I would just go here:
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/announcements-data-results/
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4 minutes ago, longterminvestor said:
I'm the sucker whose helping.
It's certainly a good interview - I definitely recommend it. The "owner" of the content is Nebraska Furniture Mart FWIW.
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On 5/4/2022 at 7:09 PM, ValueMaven said:
Not new. Just someone on YouTube trying to monetize someone else's interview from May
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Interesting stuff Poor Charlie. I wasn't aware of Madison Industries but after looking into it I see it owns Therma-Stor. We buy a lot of Santa Fe dehumidifiers from them. Really nice company they have built. Would love to see them sell to BRK some day.
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I think people care if they think it indicates a move towards retirement and an exit from Berkshire. I don't think it does but without context buying a pad in Florida at his age could look like a step toward retirement.
Speaking of acquisitions at Marmon, they also continue to buy in the minority interest in Colson Medical from the Pritzker family. Colson Medical was spun out / carved out of Marmon just before Berkshire started acquiring Marmon. In 2019, Marmon acquired 60% of Colson and is buying the remaining 40% over 5 years. A lot of people don't know that Berkshire has a specialty medical device business. Plenty of bolt-on acquisition opportunities there I would imagine.
QuoteMarmon chairman and CEO Angelo Pantaleo said: “We are excited to welcome the Colson Medical Companies back home to Marmon. Their innovative, proprietary products and processes and outstanding reputation make them an ideal fit for Marmon and provide our organisation with another strong growth platform.”
Colson Medical develops, manufactures and distributes speciality medical devices worldwide. Its portfolio consists of engineered plates and screws, along with related precision tools used in orthopaedic surgery.
The products are available through Acumed, MicroAire, Precision Edge, Apex, OsteoMed and Skeletal Kinetics businesses.
Marmon acquired all these businesses, except Apex and Skeletal Kinetics, between 1979 and 1999.
Together, the companies have more than 1,300 employees across the US, UK, Spain, China and Germany.
Berkshire Hathaway chairman and CEO Warren Buffett said: “The speciality medical device market is an attractive growth opportunity and the Colson businesses are highly regarded. Berkshire and Marmon will provide a home where these businesses can continue to flourish.”
Colson Medical Companies will operate as a sector within Marmon, led by Colson’s current president Chris Smith.
This is a short bio of the CEO of Marmon, Angelo Pantaleo. He was asked to lead the integration of Duracell into Berkshire and was CEO of Duracell for a while after the acquisition. Later he returned to Marmon as President and COO.
https://www.marmon.com/about-us/the-marmon-team/angelo-v-pantaleo/
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Ajit is very wealthy and has had a different condo in Florida near the one he bought last year for a while before this. He has multiple places, it's not a retirement announcement. I do question his taste, but I haven't seen the Rye NY pad so maybe that one is nice looking.
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17 minutes ago, Parsad said:
The only one that would matter at all is if it was Prem selling. Other than that...who really cares which fund was selling. I didn't worry which one was buying when I bought (because most weren't buying), and I don't care which one was/is selling when they sell. Cheers!
But I do care if it is Fairfax closing out their total return swaps for cash profits or somehow converting them into repurchased and cancelled shares.
Nobody really thinks this is a fund buying or selling their investment in Fairfax shares. It wouldn't look like that.
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7 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:
Think more along the lines of RFP shareholders dumping their CVRs immediately upon receipt, for whatever they can get, while they can get it; the CVR gets bought into the TFSA at close to zero. 9 months later the 'story' changes, and it is slowly bled out of the TFSA at 3-4x what was paid for it. TFSA capital rises, it doesn't fall.
The underlying assumption is receipt of a single terminal payment at some unknown future date. Most would expect that it would actually just be Domtar paying back redirected duties (from use of the prepayment) - and only after Domtar has exhausted its own tax shields. 25% for the 'if/when' risk is conservative!
Not for everyone.
SD
I really think you are missing the point of these being non transferrable non trade-able with no market.
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But this CVR won't trade. There is nothing to trade.
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I had missed these filings showing Brian Bradstreet gobbling up Fairfax preferred shares in December -
https://www.canadianinsider.com/company-insider-filings?ticker=FFH
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This morning's opening trade was "only" 210,000 shares.
edit: you could see it lined up before hand, ready to go at an agreed upon price.
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Good summary StubbleJumper. Also it is important to point out that in addition to the potentially very long wait, these CVRs will not be trade-able like some other CVRs have been in the past. So you are a 'stuck-holder' with whatever capital you allocate to this CVR.
Public Company Share Repurchase-Cannibals
in General Discussion
Posted
Thanks Spek - I used the same screener but hadn't tried 2021.
One company that jumped out at me (that I had never heard of before) was Navient (NAVI). Looks like a huge reduction in shares outstanding over 10+ years. Is anyone familiar with Navient? Are they similar to NelNet? I've followed Nelnet since learning about them from Adam Peterson at Magnolia Capital / Boston Omaha. Would imagine next month's Supreme Court decision on Biden's 16m student loans will move NelNet one way or the other.
Anyone follow Navient?
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NAVI/navient/shares-outstanding