gfp
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Posts posted by gfp
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9 hours ago, CorpRaider said:
Yeah that stimulative theory doesn't make sense to me. Even if every dollar in increased interest is just transferring from one pocket in the economy to another, those who earn interest are almost certainly going to have lower marginal utility for dollars and propensity to spend. Not to mention credit grinding to a halt and a much higher opportunity cost for everything.
I wasn't talking about interest transferring from one pocket in the economy to another, I was describing the increased interest payments flowing directly from the governments pocket to the private sector's pocket as increased deficit spending. Conventional thinking is wrong on this. Money is spent into existence by the government. That is the only place new money can come from.
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what tool are you using to produce those pie charts?
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You look at that pie chart and worry about the concentrated positions and I look at that pie chart and wonder what the point is of having so many of those tiny positions at all? If you don't like which positions became the big ones, by all means trim them if you are uncomfortable. But having a lot of money in your very best ideas is not a bad position to be in.
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Progressive is finally starting to feel all those customers GEICO "shed" to them. I was worried about PGR underwriting results for the near future when I heard so many stories of people switching to PGR instead of accepting price increases at their incumbent carrier.
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On the other hand, our first quarter 2023 CR was a 99.0, with March posting a CR of 106.2."
Q1 report
https://s24.q4cdn.com/447218525/files/doc_financials/2023/q1/Progressive-2023-Q1.pdf
There was also a conference call today, the transcripts are out there. Not sure if any are free to link to.
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I would like to see more consolidation between and among these ECIP (and MDI) recipient banks. BFCC has started with a couple. They shouldn't be bought by or be buying banks that didn't benefit from these programs. Hopefully the better managements would survive the consolidations.
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I guess if we are talking about these banks on this forum now, we should link to a few articles
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-Y8eEOMa6gVScvqQ-E86IqagHdo5UIUM/view
https://drive.google.com/file/d/12pcz5FR4chXArz28rGYkqmqeV8Ra9T8S/view
From
https://twitter.com/dirtcheapstocks
I believe Solitron Devices made an investment in CZBS and MFBP
Alluvial Fund has a little basket of these also. Maybe BFCC, UBAB, CBOBA - I forget if they are disclosed or not
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22 hours ago, Joseywales said:
Are they any prominent or up and coming fund managers that focus exclusively on small/medium cap?
I recommend this guy. He is an occasional poster on this board. Publishes his investor letters publicly so you can follow along. Deals in very very small companies that won't overlap with stuff most people are investing in for themselves. Also runs Solitron Devices, a tiny but promising operation - ticker SODI.
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11 minutes ago, bookie71 said:
Where in the US can you trade PDRX?
On 6/15/2022 at 11:06 AM, Tim Eriksen said:Odeon ask for Michael Zlatin.
On 2/27/2023 at 11:17 PM, Tim Eriksen said:You have to be a high net worth investor or institution and use a smaller firm. Likely have to transfer in 250,000 or more in assets. Be willing to pay $50 minimum commissions per trades.
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Charlie did an interview for the Financial Times -
https://www.ft.com/content/da9f8230-2eb1-49c5-b63a-f1507936d01b
Charlie Munger has warned of a brewing storm in the US commercial….pdf
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1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:
Berkshire Hathaway Press Release [April 27th 2023].
It reads a bit weird to me, any information about the supplementary background information about this would be appreciated, if you have any to share, thank you.
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5 hours ago, netcash1 said:
thank you for attaching the Fairfax India AM transcript....Could you also provide us the Fairfax Holdings AM transcript? thank you kindly
Hey, so I got the Fairfax India transcript off of TIKR, but they don't appear to have the transcript for the Fairfax Financial meeting - at least not yet. Maybe another service will have it or someone else here will have it. Good luck!
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I was able to watch the Fairfax Financial annual meeting on the web but had to leave before the Fairfax India annual meeting. In case there are others in my boat, here is the transcript of the Q&A from this year's Fairfax India annual meeting.
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1 hour ago, Jaygo said:
GGG. Graco. Not cheap and possibly overearning. Hands down the best of the fluid pumping tech businesses. You buy graco when you demand the best and most reliable. In the contractor segment there is literally no close competitor in quality. Rookies and weekend warriors buy Titan and Wagner but it’s junk once you own a graco unit.
Price paid is too high but I need to anchor and I haven’t bought it since the 30s about six years ago. If it takes a beating I will certainly average down.
had some funds come in and wanted to place it somewhere.
My wife still reminds me (and others) of the year I bought her a 210ES Highboy for her Birthday... Pretty funny stuff. That bad boy is still going strong all these years later.
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Is it correct that 'all else being equal' this would reduce return on equity? Higher equity, lower future earning power from reserve releases, same assets..
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16 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:
Seems to me that Todd Comps isn't the right CEO for Geico and they need to replace him with somebody else, who can figure this out. Todd started his CEO role in early 2020 (if I see this correctly) and it seems like things started to go downhill from there.
You may be correct that he's not the best person to lead the company, but I think the damage was done by Tony Nicely and Todd was brought in to fix what seemed like a real miscalculation with telematics where Ajit realized there was some major adverse selection going on. It is going to take a while to fix this. Luckily they have a rich parent and a patient shareholder base.
Incidentally, I had two more neighbors this week ask me what the hell was going on with GEICO after seeing their new premiums. I told both to get a quote at PGR and I expect both to switch.
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You may be right about it being Japanese buying that is pushing up the A-shares the last couple of days, but I don't think those companies are going to come up with the cash to buy 7.4% of Berkshire any time soon. They range in market cap from like $25 Billion USD to like $55 Billion (Mitsubishi Corp.)
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12 hours ago, LearningMachine said:
I posted the below earlier why he didn't get out of BAC that a lot of folks have been missing and that he didn't want to get into at the meeting, but he alluded to it with his love for Moynihan and by his comments about wanting to own a bank 100%. He owns 12.9% of BAC and that continues to go up, while staying under the limits.
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If you can get out of other banks, you can then help your own bank (BAC) and Moynihan plan for this at the expense of other banks potentially being counterparty to these hedges:
- Hedges on held-to-maturity: "hedging of items that are not recognized at fair value on the Consolidated Balance Sheet". See footnote 2 to table 11 on page 52: https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0000070858/000007085823000092/bac-20221231.htm . Thanks to someone on the group for sharing privately.
- Hedges on Available for Sale: "we don't have any capital impact from rising rates." See https://app.tikr.com/stock/transcript?cid=19049&tid=2592914&e=1784038192&ts=2718283&ref=u8yosp . So far resulting in about ~$800M quarterly floating interest income.
If you have the patience for securites/loans to mature and get lent out at much higher rates, interest income will be much much higher than what it is today.
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I took that line item on page 52, table 11 - the one referenced in footnote 2 - as being a loss on hedging not a gain. Is that not correct?
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16 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:
OT -
On the matter of inflation, here is one datapoint regarding HVAC (replacement of an existing condenser with a new one) 16 SEER rating 3 ton unit.
2020 quote -$4560
2022 quote - $5552
2023 quote - $8296
Again same contractor, same exact unit, same scope of work.
I am aghast about the 2023 quote and hence got quotes from different contractors, but the price is in a similar ballpark (I can get it a few hundred $ cheaper around $8k).
Hitting myself now for not replacing it in 2020 when it had a minor issue (rotor). Now the unit went (is loosing refrigerant and leaking water in the water exchanger, so it has do be done.
Probably should have bought CARR and WSO....
I assume those quotes are for the indoor air handler and the condensing unit together (or a package unit that includes both in one box). If that is just the outdoor condensing unit and not also an air handler/coil install those prices are real bad.
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1 hour ago, Whensthepaintdry? said:
Did I hear correctly that Buffett said they were building for TSMC?
He may be referring the the new subsidiary that they got as part of Alleghany, which also built the structure for the Sphere in Las Vegas
(edit: by the way, I checked this site under projects and this new BRK subsidiary is building TSM and Intel's new factories, Tesla giga, and basically everything else on a huge scale that gets built from steel)
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The first hour is available as a free podcast called "Squawk Pod" and I'm sure the next two parts are coming there soon. (edit: no video on the podcast and the content starts at the 5 min. mark)
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Personally I don't understand the focus on fatalities. I am not worried about being murdered, I am worried about being shot. My wife worries about me getting murdered.
It never made much sense to me when cities tout a falling homicide rate when shootings and violent crimes involving guns are way up in the next statistic over. Like we are celebrating that the kids shooting the guns are getting less precise in their aim?
Buffett/Berkshire - general news
in Berkshire Hathaway
Posted
try this
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/02/opinion/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-social-governance.html?unlocked_article_code=5vGDBfsq9Vo3g_jC16KqZr0QmRBtklIhg934ukWxDXF2BSFSxnxt-dbcC2O4EK41bB2B3Q5gauMTKTz4D3EAZbViDmq04kWYAtn-5avem8cRr3K3epHklXVI5uxSOw0hxyaSR5ZxJmiuYabBuqwoqSuR35jp5KocKSf1zEELs0AoajaJnPAi9PnY0IH3a4K2SL0TiwEeIVGG6UUU2dtm0IS2pG2tB7kDVnySb0Rr7l-j7YNRvWFtZYtM4Bm8iJWfXMbZ_go1_7FSofkLmkh4hIzCA6Mp_l0UTDlwwr4YpJCgakSX-jYRly4T3eiZrrwYLk8jgTr5X20_xLEIm7V441T-J5Lu-WS5NqOU6ixYfRUslEXL6Y9-2AgFWvgbzQ&smid=url-share