gfp
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Posts posted by gfp
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So from the conference call transcript I have Prem saying this:
And in 2022, our interest and dividend income went up significantly, and they're running today at $1.5 billion, and we are slowly increasing duration to 2, which means that '23, $1.5 billion, '24, $1.5 billion. That's probably more than we've ever had in the past, interest and dividend income of that amount.
So it sounds like this is the plan - slowly move that average from 1.5 -> 2 years. Too slow for you guys I guess, but I have no idea why so many people are assuming that the 10yr peaked at 4.3% back in October. That was the rate priced in when "everyone" was sure we were having a recession imminently. The US 5Y peaked at 4.4% back in October and is already back to 4.03% looking like it wants to go higher. The US 3Y peaked at 4.65%, October, and it already back to 4.31%, again looking like it (the rate) is going higher. There is no reason to assume they have already missed some great opportunity to lock in low 4's for a long time.
I think what they are doing is smart and they have shown that managing this part of the portfolio is one of their greatest strengths. I'm not disappointed at all. The sweet spot for where I would park my money (if I had any not invested in equities) would have a 5-handle on it. I'll bet we see the same avg. duration posture when Berkshire reports.
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I'm sure Charlie would say something along the lines of "good ideas, carried to wretched excess, become bad ideas..."
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Fairfax India Q4 results press release (PDF):
https://s1.q4cdn.com/293822657/files/doc_news/2023/FIH-2022-Q4-Press-Release-Final.pdf
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1 hour ago, aceskc said:
Gurufocus sells manuals broken down by size and/or industry
Interesting, I did not know they produced something like that. You would still have to print it and bind it up to make it like the old school manuals but something like the Gurufocus downloads, whatever ValueLine still offers, and a local print shop or Kinkos you could probably stay sufficiently old school..
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1 minute ago, John Hjorth said:
From reverse engineering the math on 23 cents it looks like the author was using 895 million AAPL shares owned by Berkshire, where the current number is actually 915,560,382. So that looks like NEAM shares omitted to me. 895m is the dataroma number. CNBC portfolio tracker actually improved their game and has correct share counts now, which is nice -
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14 minutes ago, ValueMaven said:
Happy Apple $AAPL Dividend Day to Warren Buffett Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway just received a dividend check for $205,881,319.79 from Tim Cook
Don't short Warren, the last time someone tried to chisel him for an eighth of a point he took over their entire company. Berkshire's check today was $210,578,888.
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6 hours ago, Libs said:
I've never understood this money management philosophy. I see it my business ( RIA). For instance I've taken over accounts with massively appreciated MSFT stock. Why the hell would I stick the client with a big tax bill, just so can put my imprint 100% on the portfolio? But that's what happens, over and over again.
I agree on highly appreciated stock for sure. I have one client account that came in with some Microsoft. I've never done the work to check if it was IPO shares or a later purchase, but the cost basis is pretty low -
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8 minutes ago, Intelligent_Investor said:
Surprised he sold off Visa, J&J, and Amazon shares that Alleghany had considering Berkshire has a position in those and he didn't sell off Berkshire's stake in those.
I don't think he gave Allegheny's portfolio over to Ted or Todd and I think the positions you mention are their positions FWIW
- he even liquidated Lou Simpson's entire portfolio right before he left. He's pretty adamant that you don't hold on to someone else's stuff. Lou was practically crying selling the Nike.
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On 2/15/2023 at 8:57 AM, Spekulatius said:
I thought he was in the money with TSM. So he pays taxes rather than saving them.
So he purchased 60 million shares in Q3 2022. Prices were between 91.94 and 67.74 per share during that quarter. This 13F is as of the end of the year, when TSM closed at 74.49 per share. So it is entirely possible he had a loss on 86% of his tax lots.
But I'm just speculating. He could have just thought about it further and changed his mind. If it was tax related, we should see the position grow again in Q1 2023. If he changed his mind it will likely disappear entirely.
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4 hours ago, Luca said:
Could they have sold ADR Shares and buy Taiwan listed shares?
You know Warren, he probably read that ProPublica article about all his billionaire buddies getting away with tax loss selling by swapping almost identical securities at year and and he just had to give it a try
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It's kind of funny - Warren kept Allegheny's 333,856 AAPL shares and sold every single other equity in their portfolio. "Don't sell the Apple"
This was the Alleghany equity portfolio directly pre-merger
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I've always loved that song. John Legend did an interesting cover with the Roots that he put out on an album of covers. I saw them perform it live at jazz fest and it was pretty great also. we're chicken feathers all without one gut!
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Bloomberg has an article highlighting the 3G principals' latest troubles -
Lojas Americanas had off balance sheet supply chain financing that was apparently hidden by previous executives. (almost $4 Billion dollars worth)
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8 hours ago, sshr said:
What trade magazines do you read? How do you get access to them cheaply (or freely)?
For Insurance, I subscribed to these years ago and while I don't pay anything anymore or have access to all of the articles, they still continue to send me quite a bit of content for free. If something seems particularly interesting and is behind a paywall I can usually read about it through a company press release or another media source describing the same event.
https://www.insuranceinsider.com
I think Ted Weschler and Warren both read furniture industry publications. I do not, but those guys have businesses in this field.
https://www.homefurnishingshalloffame.com/trade-publications
Warren has mentioned being a long time reader of Banking industry trade publications like this one:
https://www.americanbanker.com/magazine
and their general website https://www.americanbanker.com/
There are many Oil and Gas industry publications. I don't know which ones Warren and/or Greg Abel read, but I wouldn't be surprised if they read some on this list.
https://blog.feedspot.com/oil_and_gas_magazines/
As an individual investor I don't think it is going to be super helpful to try to force a bunch of super specific industry chatter into your head just because the guys at Berkshire do it. They have businesses in these fields and have read these publications for decades, so a quick skim when something comes in the mail is enough.
There is also a lot of value in having a network of friends and colleagues that send you articles they think you will find value in. It used to be clippings in the mail, today it is probably web links or PDFs most of the time. If Greg Abel or Bill Gates or Charlie sends Warren an article I'm sure he will at least skim it. -
2 hours ago, Charlie said:
Any good guesses what Buffett bought in Q4 2022?
My guesses would be Occidental, Apple and some share repurchases.
Berkshire can't keep additional OXY purchases a secret. The last time Berkshire added to OXY was 9/28 -
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000089924322032210/xslF345X03/doc4.xml
I think UK is spot on with the TSM guess and I would expect that position to be larger than most expect when the 13F comes out.
I would have guessed some Celanese shares but I'm not sure that is a Buffett choice and they can't really add much to that position without it hitting 10% so that one is probably done.
Personally I hope he cools it with the Apple share purchases but Warren is always full of surprises.
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Oh man, 5v crimp with exposed fasteners? I thought for sure this was a standing seam quality property lol...
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5 minutes ago, rkbabang said:
Of course. I obviously don't think I'm wrong. I thought Krugman was an idiot when I first read that quote in the late 90's and I think Munger is just as wrong now. I think history has proven me correct about the internet and I think it will eventually prove me correct about bitcoin. But of course I could be mistaken. Munger doesn't seem to have the humility to think that he could be wrong, he just wants governments to use violence to go after something he doesn't like.
That's good you are staying humble. There is so much absolutism that I hear from Cryptocurrency owners that it makes me wince. It's all so obvious to them. There are so many ways people can end up losing big on these digital assets. Governments are just one possibility.
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Don't forget to entertain the possibility that you don't get it.
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Looks great! Which community/neighborhood is this in? This is a new build available for immediate delivery and not a resale?
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Who wants some $2.5 US natural gas? Surprised this hasn't been discussed on the board
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As far as unique management incentives go, I haven't seen something quite like this before:
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001555074/000155507423000004/aamc-20221230.htm
"the Company issued 1,000 shares of Series N Preferred Stock (the “Series N Preferred Stock”) to Jason Kopcak, Chief Executive Officer of the Company, and 1,000 shares of Series O Preferred Stock (the “Series O Preferred Stock”) to Stephen R. Krallman, Chief Financial Officer of the Company. Both issuances were valued at $10.00 per share. Holders of the Company’s preferred stock have the right to a preferred stock dividend when and if declared by the Board. The Board intends that Mr. Kopcak’s preferred stock dividend will include one share of common stock for every three shares of common stock the Company repurchases during the prior quarter."
(AAMC)
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9 hours ago, FCharlie said:
but this is a company that has repurchased over a billion shares in the last handful of years and no one cares even a little bit.
Well I know one old fella in Omaha who seemed to notice and hold his nose and buy.
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4 hours ago, cogitator8 said:
What you’ll think about this short idea from Hindenburg Research ?
cogitator8! What's up
Fairfax 2023
in Fairfax Financial
Posted
Personnel changes - Brian Young, CEO of Odyssey will share oversight with Andy Barnard over all of Fairfax's insurance companies:
https://www.fairfax.ca/news/press-releases/press-release-details/2023/Fairfax-Financial-Holdings-Personnel-Announcements/default.aspx