gfp
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Posts posted by gfp
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4 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:
I am wondering if this means WEB is bearish on auto stocks in general, because of high capx in an inflationary environment, or is it just BYD’s valuation too high.
I doubt the sales of BYD are connected to some high level take on the global auto industry but who knows. I would guess that the value (and valuation) of the BYD stake became too large inside of BHE and Greg was given permission to make a call on starting a liquidation (or a partial liquidation - we'll see). Warren didn't make the original call to invest in BYD - he sent Sokol to check it out and make the decision with BHE's (then MidAmerican's) capital.
I wouldn't be surprised if BYD sales proceeds ultimately fund some repurchases by BHE of the Walter Scott estate shares. Either way, BHE has plenty of uses for the capital.
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Interesting data on put option activity from today's WSJ -
Comments on the spike in the Put-Call ratio from the end of the article:
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Despite the appearance of fear, other indicators suggest that options protecting from market turmoil are in low demand. The Nations TailDex, which measures the cost of put options that would pay out in a major S&P 500 decline, recently hit a near-decade low.
“Common thinking is that high readings in the Cboe equity put-call ratio suggest fear is rampant, because traders are purchasing a large number of puts,” Mr. Kochuba of SpotGamma said. “Occasionally, this can be correct. In this case, it is not.”"
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BHE sold another 10.76 million shares of BYD (HK:1211).
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Martin Thompson, CEO of Brit, commented: “Jess and Jeff have built a great business in Ambridge and, with the combination with BGSU in 2021, established a highly regarded and fast-growing international MGA. While we are proud of what we have helped to create, we believe now is the appropriate time for Brit to realise the value of its investment as we focus our strategic priorities on our core underwriting capabilities across our broad distribution networks and our investment in building out market leading digital capabilities to support this. In Amynta we were pleased to find the perfect owners to take Ambridge forward, in particular as they are building a high quality MGA business. Importantly, Ambridge and Amynta remain key partners for Brit, and we look forward to a long and deep relationship with them as an independent MGA.”
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23 minutes ago, james22 said:
I'd like to see BRK to buy OXY (and the 8% outstanding BHE) and put Hollub in charge.
Are you saying here that you think Vicki Hollub should be installed as the leader of Berkshire Hathaway Energy?
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Looks like Resolute Forest Products is a done deal -
https://decisions.ct-tc.gc.ca/ct-tc/cdo/en/item/521162/index.do
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Great post longterminvestor - thanks for the color
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Thanks Dinar. This video is from March 2022 for context.
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Does BTC demonstrate tax-loss selling patterns in losing years? Or are all you crypto cowboys not paying tax on this stuff?
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Put me down as not knowing anything about it. Thanks to all for their angelic patience.
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7 hours ago, crs223 said:
Have home builder stock prices ever dropped? If so, under what conditions?
I remember 2006 very well. Homebuilder stocks were "cheap" with single digit P/E ratios and growing earnings. Classic cyclical low-PE value trap. The stocks declined throughout 2006 and continued weak until the stock market bottomed in 2009. Of course companies like NVR, with a better model, fared better than the average homebuilder.
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Just to follow up, this (OSTRW) was a 100% loss of capital, correct?
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Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe the super voting shares also lose their super voting status on Prem's death.
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Thanks for answering. I understand your point of view. Is "stable" a good quality for "money" to have? Does extreme volatility and levered correlation with risk assets (vs behaving more like gold) make this super secure thing a poor substitute for things historically used as "money."
Why is it so hard for another cryptocurrency/chain to have security as good as Bitcoin? Is this not something that is created by man and therefore man can do it again if they want to?
I'm trying to figure out if the "there is no bitcoin in space but plenty of every other limited resource" argument is any good.
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55 minutes ago, rkbabang said:
Why are they not nearly as valuable? When you fully understand the answer to that question you will understand. Related question: Why would anyone pay tens of thousands of dollars for a Rolex when you can get one in Chinatown for $50?
Why not just answer instead of using some kind of riddle or leaving it a mystery? Is Ethereum worse? Is bitcoin first and that's the only thing making it better? Just tell us already.
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1 minute ago, rkbabang said:
This applies to any natural commodity. There is no natural resource for which our galaxy doesn't have way more than humanity could ever possibly use. BTC is different. It is designed from the start to be scarce. You won't find a better way to get more Bitcoin from some hole in the ground on Earth and you won't find any more Bitcoin in the asteroid belt.
But you will find an endless supply of near-clones to bitcoin like the thousands of near-clones that have already been released. What makes bitcoin special from each near-clone that comes out? That it is older? That it is "better?" Is Ethereum special? What about the next "blue chip" name brand crypto that catches on? They seem awfully easy to create.
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Oh good - I was wondering what was taking so long. They were in need of a new "independent" director ASAP since they were technically out of compliance with NYSE listing requirements. I had thought maybe Gates would be offered a return but I guess not. Tom Murphy Jr. is a good pick. Warren has known him most of his life I imagine.
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Yeah, where I live, uninsured drivers and litigation are both off the charts. We have some of the highest cost auto insurance rates in the US. On a non-auto claim, we had a tenant slip and fall on some deck stairs (3 stairs high), in a rainstorm, documented on HD video from the security cameras, resulted in a sprained wrist documented by the hospital and multiple doctors visits, imaging, etc. Our insurance company just settled with the former tenant for $132,500 rather than go to trial in what they kept referring to as a 'horrible venue' - i.e., Orleans parish civil court jury pool. Yikes.
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Great post as usual Charlie - thanks! Will the youngsters listen and copy? Probably not!
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Not sure where to post this, but some might find this second issue of industry magazine "E&S Insurer" to have some interesting commentary. As dealraker pointed out, it reads a bit like a tabloid, much like its sister publication "insurance insider." It is also primarily written out of the UK I believe. But there are interviews and renewal scuttlebutt, etc. Only the first two issues are free, it will be paywalled after this one -
https://pdf.static.prod.wbm.infomaker.io/NByENF43Hs4HyauotoWgX6hsNGI.pdf
(link is a PDF file)
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They always say Prem "controls" Sixty Two, so I assume there is some family estate planning going on there. That would be normal in the USA at least.
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6 minutes ago, Dinar said:
Keep in mind, if under Jamie Dimon JPM could take a $50bn London whale hit, then why not GS?
I don't think that was $50 Billion! Maybe $6 Billion?
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The policies are all capped, so you can't just extrapolate a typical percentage of cat exposure and apply it to an $800B to $1 Trillion claims event.
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I don't follow RYAN specialty, but noticed the CEO there, Mr. Ryan, definitely bought the dip recently -
Cryptocurrencies
in General Discussion
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Is Houbi owned by the guy who paid up for the lunch with Buffett?