gfp
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Posts posted by gfp
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Well according to Bill's (wabuffo) withholding chart, we are still growing wages strongly, although it is possible people adjusted their withholding percentages after a rude surprise in April -
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Thanks for the long detailed post. I basically agree that inflation doesn't matter at all except to the extent that it potentially (and usually) redistributes real wealth unevenly between cohorts. Nobody really cares if we keep score using the metric system all of a sudden, it is just a unit of account. But when the changing of the units on the scoreboard effects different groups to different degrees we have a problem.
Where we differ is that I think your wage spiral is history. Hours worked has already rolled over. Employers are reluctant to let anybody go because it was painful and expensive to find them and train them in the first place. But without sufficient new orders coming in, new hiring and wage-increase negotiations will be a memory.
We'll see how it all works out!
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Here's a good one, ISM services prices paid index time shifted forward 3 months overlaid with CPI. Capitalism and time cure the type of inflation we had. Truflation is another example. If you think most of our inflation was caused by monetary inflation and not COVID-related supply/demand shocks, the FED isn't going to do anything to help. Only adjusting the level of the deficit will help if you think the inflation is caused by too much "money" sloshing around. Since so much of the deficit is structural at this point, you would have to raise taxes. Or CUT interest rates to reduce deficit spending stimulus. Even the Federal Reserve is losing money on their balance sheet holdings - that is additional stimulus! Government deficit plus "net interest paid by the Fed" on their money losing balance sheet while the yield curve is inverted.
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26 minutes ago, NnnnotSoSmart said:
Buffett keeps buying OXY:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000095017023030512/xslF345X03/ownership.xml
OXY continues to redeem the preferred.
Preferred share count down from 93,532 shares on May 30 to to 91,964 on June 28.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000089924323014128/xslF345X03/doc4.xml
So if my napkin math checks out that is a redemption of 1,568 preferred shares during that period, at $100,000 per share face value, redeemed at a 10% premium to face (plus accrued dividends), so that sent Berkshire $172.48 million plus any accrued but unpaid dividends. I'm sure a more enterprising person could reverse engineer the size of the Occidental share repurchase for the period that would result in that level of mandatory redemption at the 50/50 over $4 TTM deal...
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14 minutes ago, benchmark said:
Interesting to see that Credit Suisse and Charles Schwab at the top, and USB, PNC at the bottom.
I believe that is only Credit Suisse's US operating subsidiary, but still it doesn't drum up a ton of confidence in these stress tests when the "strongest" bank by capital on your 12/2022 list has already failed by the time the results are released.
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So... she lives in China, worked for BABA and an IT company and needs to ask you how to get a VPN???
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So in your housing example the average homeowner has a huge fixed rate multi-decade mortgage getting inflated away right?
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I think Chompin' Chuck has been all over ERIE for some years now. (dealraker)
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I still don't get all this focus on inflation and the Federal Reserve. Inflation has been slayed, it is over for now. We do not have an inflationary economy at the moment - despite huge deficit spending stimulus. The Federal Reserve's overnight rate isn't what slayed inflation and the Fed doesn't have an effective tool for dealing with inflation going forward. Further rate increases are more likely to make "inflation" worse.
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28 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:
Is this Prizker a member a member of the family that sold Marmon to Berkshire?
Yes, he is Jay Pritzker's nephew. Also a billionaire. His Dad, Donald Pritzker, ran Hyatt for a while.
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Another deal for PacWest assets (Fairfax got the lion's share of the first large public deal). This one curiously leaves out any mention of the size of the discount / mark-down.
edit:
This was in the 8K announcing the deal:
QuoteConsistent with the previously announced strategy of PacWest Bancorp to pursue strategic asset sales and focus on our core community banking business, our bank subsidiary, Pacific Western Bank (the “Bank”), has entered into a purchase agreement to sell a portfolio of Lender Finance loans (the “Portfolio”) with an aggregate commitment amount of $3.54 billion, including an aggregate outstanding principal balance of $2.21 billion, to certain Alternative Credit strategy funds managed by Ares Management Corporation (“Ares”), a leading global alternative investment manager.
The first tranche closed on June 22, 2023, with Ares acquiring an aggregate outstanding principal balance of $2.07 billion and assuming $187.14 million of the $1.33 billion unfunded commitment in the Portfolio, resulting in cash proceeds received of $2.01 billion before transaction costs. Additional tranches are currently expected to close in future periods as unfunded commitments are disbursed and then subsequently sold. The sale of the remainder of the Portfolio is subject to customary closing conditions, including the Bank securing certain consents required under certain of the underlying loan and related agreements.
This sale, in addition to the approximately $2.36 billion of cash proceeds received from the previously closed sale of National Construction loans, will improve our liquidity and our capital ratios.
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This lady pretty much called it correctly 12 hours ago -
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I have an extremely basic question on BTC and BTC-linked products like CME BTC futures and ETFs based on a basket of futures.
Doesn't the existence of BTC-linked derivatives undermine the inelasticity argument of Bitcoin that the supply is extremely limited? Don't these BTC-price-linked derivative contracts function like eurodollars in that they are completely elastic and can expand and contract the supply of BTC-denominated "money" outside the control of the US government (in the case of a eurodollar, or in BTC's case, the rules of the thing) ?
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Warren put out a press release regarding his annual giving -
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230621049174/en/Berkshire-Hathaway-Inc.-News-Release
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Today was a perfect example of the GNRC effect when hurricanes and power outages are in the news. Up 8% on no company specific news.
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23 minutes ago, This2ShallPass said:
Generac is a no go, premiums too high.
I looked at premiums for some comparable companies to Fairfax in this list. Criteria - ~15-20% OTM puts, Nov 17'23 expiration (or extrapolated)
Generac - 7% put premium
Hartford - 1.25%
AIG - 1.5%
Markel - 1.9%
WR Berkeley - 3.2%
My whole point on Generac was that the stock of a standby generator company goes up when a bad hurricane hits. You wouldn't buy puts on it. It's not an insurance company.
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I don't really advocate trying to hedge a specific sub-risk like that for an insurance company, but cheap out of the money call options on Generac used to be an effective pairing for hurricane season. I still think it's not worth doing and haven't kept up with GNRC since I sold it several years ago. Actually, looking it up the share price has come way down from its peak.
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30 minutes ago, DooDiligence said:
Long live the knowledgable numbers nailer of the North Shore.
Well I appreciate the sentiment but we live in the City not the north shore. Sometimes I wish we didn't live in the city, but we'll see...
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9 minutes ago, Castanza said:
I think they were referring to Stora Enso on the OTC thing. They aren't OTC in their native country - just go to their website to read their earnings results:
https://www.storaenso.com/en/investors
https://www.storaenso.com/en/investors/reports-and-presentations
( @jks327 )
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I'm 43 now. Been doing this (investing for a living) for 23 years now. We've basically stopped doing any construction / development, so I hope I don't get fat because of that. My hair is white but I still feel in pretty good shape. I probably drink too much but I do enjoy it LOL... On one side of my family (Father's), all the men died in their 50's. On the other side, the men all lived to over 100. Not sure what to expect!
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3 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:
Most of the push back I hear is related to fees and that FFH is cheap anyway so might as well own the parent.
In my experience, most people who say this fail to realize how small Fairfax India is within Fairfax Financial's investment portfolio. You aren't getting much exposure to FIH.U by buying FFH. You do get Digit when you buy the parent. I own both.
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Berkshire's official press release has a little more commentary - "
Mr. Buffett and Mr. Abel continue to be delighted with the investments and hope, eventually, to own 9.9% of each of the five companies."
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26 minutes ago, Monsieur_dee said:
Just off the top of my head I remember when he bought and sold Tenneco. Maybe 80 million and gave it to Li . He turned it into 400 million... That was from maybe the 2018/2019 djco meeting . I wish we could access what he's buying in China. Or even his letters I'd he happy with
You can see a couple of the names Himalaya owns on the HK exchange by searching -
Have We Hit The Top?
in General Discussion
Posted
Tell me more about this 5.15% mortgage you just got? Location, terms, length?
Also, bell peppers on a cheeseburger???