Crip1

Well, never say never. True that listing on the US exchange was as close to a disaster as one can get, but Fairfax is a far different animal now...far different. Short attacks can happen to any company at any time, but the financial situation of the company at that time made it an attractive short-target. It's FAR less attractive as a short target now. Not advocating for them to do so, but what looked to be a "never" years ago seems to be a "Not very likely, but one never knows" now. -Crip

This may have been said before but, honestly, I don't care about index inclusion. We all invest for the return and the financial security that return provides. We all have different approaches, preferences, tolerance levels, etc. One thing I'd surmise, after reading this board for years, is that most of us want an investment that allows us to sit and do nothing but watch it grow, and at this point of it's history, that is exactly what Fairfax has become. As long as management doesn't do anything stupid, lethargy, bordering on sloth, will make us notably wealthier in the coming 5-10 years, irrespective of whether or not it's included in any index. All the shareholders have to do is to keep an eye out for any management actions that are stupid...that's it. What can be easier. Hell, I'd LOVE a whole basket of these companies and, again, could not care less about index inclusion. We can argue the level with which Fairfax undervalued, but the vast majority of the holders do believe that it's under-valued. Now, if it shot up 25%, 35%, 50% overnight, I have to think others as well as myself, would be tempted to sell...the hold/sell would require a difficult decision. Right now, the decision to hold is easy...blissfully easy. It is jumping over a 2 inch hurdle. Dismounting soapbox. -Crip

I appreciate the correction (completely forgot the OMERS piece, clearly). That changes the math. It reduces the 74% to 68.97%, which changes FFI's share of BIAL to be worth US$1.759B resulting in the rest of FFI to be valued at US$337M based on the share price mid-day.

This values the 74% stake at $1.85B meaning that the rest of FFI is valued by the market at $254M. -Crip

The one aspect of Prem that I’ve not cared for is the “cheerleader” aspect of the Annual Letters to Shareholders, always felt it was in stark contrast to Buffett’s candor. The use of exclamation points only added to that. But, at the same time, one must give credit where it’s due, and this investment has to be one of the best, if not THE best, they’ve ever done from an ROI perspective. It’s important to admit when one is wrong, and I’d have suggested that they take the money and run on this investment a long time ago…I was dead wrong. -Crip

Hey MMM, I'd be happy with 25% so how about I let you manage my money, I get the first 25% and you get the rest? -Crip

Well, I respectfully disagree about excluding dividends. Let's look at this example: Two companies were both priced $100 a share 4 years ago, and both are currently priced at $200 a share. Company A paid a 2.5% dividend while company B did not pay any dividend. Clearly company A had a better return than company B. Because of this, it does make sense to incorporate dividends into investment returns. That said, not only is the point regarding taxation spot on, it makes return nearly impossible to calculate due everyone's unique tax situation. Candidly, I don't have a holistic calculation in mind, but assuming dividends are reinvested and conservatively assuming a 35% tax rate on those dividends would give a reasonable ballpark figure. Folks posting here tend to have longer time horizons than most, and those longer time horizons make reinvested dividends substantially more valuable than it does for short-term traders. -Crip

Not disagreeing with the gist of what they are saying here, but the portion of the thesis referencing the fact that the stock has outperformed peer group YTD is, IMHO, meaningless in terms of whether or not it's a good investment now. -Crip

Rammstein is obviously known for the visuals at their shows, but I think that reputation overshadows their music to an extent. Like you, I am a fan. Among other things, they incorporate keys into hard rock/metal as well as anyone, and far better than most. -Crip

Among other things, this board is a lot more of "This is what I am doing, and here's why" vs. "You're an idiot if you don't do this or that". I'm still holding but if you find other investments which have better risk/reward profiles, more power to you. That said, do you care to elaborate on the better opportunity? -Crip

I would think that management does something akin to a Monte Carlo simulation on the TRS position on an ongoing basis to assess the risk potential and damage projections related to the TRS position, and possibly to create one or more “escape routes” should a more damaging scenario play out. I mean, one would think they do similar type analyses as part of the insurance business as a whole to avoid risk concentration. The fact that the TRS deal is leveraged so, even moreso than a large investment, suggests that if a confluence of negative factors do occur, the damage can be substantial. -Crip

I stand corrected. All the same, with 84K shares traded, that means about $90M of shares traded have resulted in excess of a $1B market cap hit. -Crip

Are you seeing that volume on TSE?

Just over $1K shares traded today on the US OTC market, total amount of those trades at current prices is under $1.2M. 6% share price decline applied against $26B market cap means a decline of roughly $1.6B if market cap. So, $1.2M of trades resulted in 1.6B of "lost" market cap. Yawn. -Crip

Add to the Blackberry holdings and then buyback depressed shares...BRILLIANT!!!! -Crip