Crip1

Consistency bias: Even when it acts against our best interest our tendency is to be consistent with our prior commitments, ideas, thoughts, words, and actions. As a byproduct of confirmation bias, we rarely seek disconfirming evidence of what we believe. This, after all, makes it easier to maintain our positive self-image. -Crip

11 years ago it was a decidedly different company, unarguably worse compared to now. One has to consider that the attractiveness of company shares now is noticeably higher than it was 11 years ago. That has to be part of it. -Crip

Welcome to Fairfax-land. Your note compelled me to think and subsequently comment about a non-finance thing, not necessarily directed at you, but really for the whole group. Now, it’s fully understood that much of your note was tongue-in-cheek, but it is not good for us to refer to ourselves as being an “idiot”. It’s a psychological thing. If we keep calling ourselves “stupid”, “idiot”, etc. we start to believe it, and that’s not good for anyone long-term. Self-accountability is paramount in life, and it’s very applicable to investing. “I screwed up” or “I did not see this or that” are examples of self-accountability that are not degrading to one’s self. “Idiot” is permanent, “screwed up” is temporary…and if we’re doing something bad, it’s better for our minds to realize that it’s temporary. The opposite is true in reverse for diet and exercise. “I’m on a diet” or “I’m trying to get in shape” are temporary things. “I’m eating healthy” and “I’m staying active” are more permanent. OK, dismounting the soapbox. Welcome, there’s a ton to learn on this site, enjoy the ride. -Crip

Price dipped below US$17 early today on the TTD (Trump Terrif Diversion). I contemplated adding another 10-20% to my position with some dry powder from a recent sale, but got sidetracked at work and missed the dip. We may look back at today as one of the last times to buy this under $17. -Crip

This would seemingly be a matter of “buying what you know”. Obviously, all things being equal, doing this will work out better than “buying what you think you know”. I doubt that we’ll look back at this as a home run, but there’s not a damned thing wrong with hitting singles and doubles. -Crip

Ummm...did I miss some news? -Crip P. S. Seeing as this bounced between US$15.25 and US$15.75 a few times over the past few months, I put in a buy order to bump up my position by roughly 20% (It's tied for my second largest holding) at $15.25 on Christmas Eve figuring I could catch a few more movements up and down. Clearly, that did not work. To anyone enjoying the recent run up...you're welcome.

Quick tangent, I'm a White Sox fan. Also a fan of the Bears, Bulls and Blackhawks. Thankfully my investing results have been better than my sports teams. -Crip

This may be more applicable to US-based members. Also, this runs contrary to my normal modus operandi as a bottoms-up investor. By most measurements the US economy has performed as well as any of the major economies during the post-Covid period and the US Dollar is as strong as it’s been in the past 20 years (save for a brief period in 2022). Furthermore, pretty much every morning as I listen to Bloomberg to start the day the term “American exceptionalism” is tossed out, often multiple times. This has caught the attention of my contrarian spider-sense. This suggests that have got to be closer to “maximum optimism” now than in recent times, and max optimism often portends reversal. If that is the case, then it seems to me that buying non-US domiciled equities, especially in markets who would be “catching up” to the US economically, would give a double-dose of returns from growing earnings and currency appreciation relative to the USD. So, looking for other’s thoughts, pro or con. -Crip

First and foremost, though it is appreciated, I do not deserve in the slightest to be mentioned with Viking or Dazel in terms of what they have brought to this board. They are both all-stars, bordering on deities. Held FFH since before 2000, like 1998 or so, though I can’t recall exactly when I first bought in. After the first purchase, I made a few big decisions, some good and some less than good: Substantially increased my stake during the short attack right after the NYSE listing. Had it not been for Cardboard and BSilly0 on the Stockhouse board, I am not sure I’d have held on. (Good) When Fairfax hedged the whole investment portfolio, I held on. The Fairfax investment thesis back then was more about their investment acumen than the quality of the insurance underwriting. Hedging meant that they had to substantially outperform the market in order for this to make sense. I should have realized that this was not a good strategy and pared back my position. (Less than good) Increased the position in 2021 (Good) Sold some when they did the Dutch Auction with the full intention of buying back once the price dropped afterwards. Problem is that when it dropped 10% I got greedy and waited for it to drop more…it didn’t. (Idea: Good. Execution: Less than good) -Crip

Love that.

Well, never say never. True that listing on the US exchange was as close to a disaster as one can get, but Fairfax is a far different animal now...far different. Short attacks can happen to any company at any time, but the financial situation of the company at that time made it an attractive short-target. It's FAR less attractive as a short target now. Not advocating for them to do so, but what looked to be a "never" years ago seems to be a "Not very likely, but one never knows" now. -Crip

This may have been said before but, honestly, I don't care about index inclusion. We all invest for the return and the financial security that return provides. We all have different approaches, preferences, tolerance levels, etc. One thing I'd surmise, after reading this board for years, is that most of us want an investment that allows us to sit and do nothing but watch it grow, and at this point of it's history, that is exactly what Fairfax has become. As long as management doesn't do anything stupid, lethargy, bordering on sloth, will make us notably wealthier in the coming 5-10 years, irrespective of whether or not it's included in any index. All the shareholders have to do is to keep an eye out for any management actions that are stupid...that's it. What can be easier. Hell, I'd LOVE a whole basket of these companies and, again, could not care less about index inclusion. We can argue the level with which Fairfax undervalued, but the vast majority of the holders do believe that it's under-valued. Now, if it shot up 25%, 35%, 50% overnight, I have to think others as well as myself, would be tempted to sell...the hold/sell would require a difficult decision. Right now, the decision to hold is easy...blissfully easy. It is jumping over a 2 inch hurdle. Dismounting soapbox. -Crip

I appreciate the correction (completely forgot the OMERS piece, clearly). That changes the math. It reduces the 74% to 68.97%, which changes FFI's share of BIAL to be worth US$1.759B resulting in the rest of FFI to be valued at US$337M based on the share price mid-day.

This values the 74% stake at $1.85B meaning that the rest of FFI is valued by the market at $254M. -Crip

The one aspect of Prem that I’ve not cared for is the “cheerleader” aspect of the Annual Letters to Shareholders, always felt it was in stark contrast to Buffett’s candor. The use of exclamation points only added to that. But, at the same time, one must give credit where it’s due, and this investment has to be one of the best, if not THE best, they’ve ever done from an ROI perspective. It’s important to admit when one is wrong, and I’d have suggested that they take the money and run on this investment a long time ago…I was dead wrong. -Crip