wisdom

If a run up for 15 years proves there are fundamentals, then what happened to Calgary or any other city in Alberta after a 15 year run. Something to think about? It is human to be irrational and longer than anyone can imagine.

There are restrictions on farmland being rezoned. If I understand human nature -a point is reached where citizens exert pressure on their elected representativeso to release more land/tighten rules, etc. at some point in time. It actually seems to be playing out that way if you see what happened in recent elections and the pressure continues to build. The problem is that the prices are so inflated, that the floor is going to be a long way down once the music stops due to any reason.

That is the hot money that may be coming in and will be first to leave when and if things go south. Just makes for larger swings. The unfortunate thing is that this is real estate that we are talking about that is being used to speculate and tends to have a large impact with each move because more people own homes and leverage. Leverage can be 20x. For perspective - Last year home prices increased 30% in Vancouver on top of a 15 year run up. There are several examples where I know people who are turning around and selling a house the same day for $90k more than the purchase price. Never been easier to get rich.

Land is valuable to developers. I believe that is where most of the inventory is sitting - it takes a while for city approvals, demolishing and building. When this is over and done with - it will be interesting to look at the number of Canadians who became builders.

Nodnub - I was talking about PR's. It was just that I used a short form when you asked for the source. If you look at the graph in the article it does not look like a one time read - It looks like that is the trend. It is possible that 2004 was an anomaly. I do not know for sure though.

No - this was in reference to the anecdote that both their neighbors were from China. But, I don't see rich investors buying houses that are an hour out of the city in the suburbs for $1 mil (no backyard/no views). The suburb (Langley) is where most professional families are moving to as it is considered affordable. And no Vancouver is no silicon valley - the city has one of the lowest median household incomes amongst major Canadian cities.

http://www.vancouversun.com/Permanent+residents+from+China+drops+half/11688716/story.html Residents from China drop by half

Interesting fact - permanent residents from China to BC are down 50% in the last 10 years. City of Vancouver expects a 1,000 demolition permits this year. Could it be developers who own those properties. From what I understand there are a lot of individuals who have become builders and a lot of them own anywhere from 2 to 20 properties that they re- develop. Could this be the reason for the shortage in supply and crazy prices?

http://profit.ndtv.com/news/corporates/article-thomas-cook-arm-gains-full-control-of-us-based-mfxchange-1261356 Quest purchases from FFH

Merry Christmas

People vote for leaders who speak confidently and address major issues with simple arguments. The positions do not have to be based in reality.

http://money.cnn.com/2015/11/20/investing/trader-gofundme-drug-kalobios-shkreli/index.html

Italian immigrants went through a similar experience after the Irish. Human nature doesn't change much. Anything different is a threat.

How many were refugees? So we lock them out. What do we do with our citizens?

We are talking about choosing 100,000 out of millions.

The refugee crisis in Europe is very different to refugees coming to North America. In Europe, it is easy to cross over without any checks. To enter North America they have to go through a process and be accepted. There is a big difference. It is good that we understand the risk as I would hope it results in fewer individuals who are a risk being accepted. PS. we do not have to accept anyone whose risk profile we aren't comfortable with.

I am sure the governments will conduct background checks on refugees before accepting them. It looks like the attack had more French citizens than others involved in the attack. I do not believe we can stop every single plot. We are better off making it harder to attack soft targets and being prepared to reduce damage when these attacks happen - similar to boarding on planes after 9/11. The world is becoming more global and that involves people moving around. We cannot shut all our doors and hide. This is what China did in the past and it lead to their down fall and the power base moved to Europe. Why would we repeat something that lead to a civilization like China losing it's dominance?

Not sure if you are aware of Northern Ireland - Catholics and protestants. Even today they might kill each other. You are comparing today's Ireland to today's Syria. What about the time when the Irish immigrants were coming to the US. Have you heard of the IRA.

To add to that many Canadians are now builders/developers providing a large secondary income. One of their requirements is having an inventory to demolish and re-build as they build anywhere from 1-10 houses a year. In greater Vancouver even if we assume 100 builders hold an inventory of 10 houses each = 1,000 houses are owned by these builders. My best anecdotal evidence says the real numbers would be higher. Thus, a lot of the demand or shortage of housing you see in GVRD is artificial. It will be interesting when the music stops, because the large secondary incomes will disappear and that inventory could come back on the market when no one else can afford it. My best guess - When Canadian RE goes we will have a recession as our natural resources are already hit and housing seems to be the last pillar. RE is struggling in all cities other than Toronto and Vancouver Similar to Japan and US - our interest rates will drop as housing gets cheaper because the BoC will need to stimulate. This is how I see it playing out. Lower housing prices and lower rates going forward.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/bank+mortgages+bags+cash+behind+chinese+home+buys+vancouver/11485324/story.html?__lsa=5235-1262 Study confirms what I have stated several times. 82% of the so called houses bought by new rich Chinese investors are done using financing rather than cash. As a newcomer in Canada one needs no job, no income or credit to borrow. The so called rich immigrants have been playing with other peoples money and loving it.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2968bc5e-68fe-11e5-a57f-21b88f7d973f.html?ftcamp=traffic/partner/feed_headline/us_yahoo/auddev#axzz3ndhwzhHT Deflation in asia

Going to be close, but, conservatives have been in long enough. Need some balance and it is going to get tough with the commodity slow down. I believe, deficit spending and eventually higher taxes will happen. Probably not the best time to be elected.

7 years of money printing across the world and we are still talking about the first interest rate hike. Does that sound like inflation? I wonder what happens when the next slow down hits or all the misallocated capital over the last 8 years results in losses. I guess that may lead to inflation.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-29/german-inflation-turns-negative-for-first-time-since-january Looks like Germany too was negative.

also increased by 20%.