gokou3

Up 46% this year in my main, tax-sheltered account with 6-digit sums. This includes about 10 points of performance due to CAD weakness. It does 18.5% CAGR since inception in Oct 2005, albeit with very small sums back then. Obviously very satisfied with my results, especially for the relatively little effort I put into researching stocks this year due to personal circumstances (It makes me wonder though whether my limited time restricted me to only the best ideas which improves return). Big winners include the leaps of BAC, AIG, and KMI. FCAU common and VZ leaps also contributed to performance. LTS dragged on performance; almost a wipe-out for me considering I bought it in 2011. I run a concentrated, highly-leveraged portfolio and got lucky this year again (did 70%+ last year with similar leverages). I worry about a blow-up as much as I am concerned about gains. My biggest hedge is that I am still rather young (in my mid-30s) so if s*it happens I still have time to make up. Given the market level and macro uncertainties (oil price, Fed increase, Russia, China, Japan, Europe, etc), I currently have about 50% of NAV in cash having exited BAC and AIG leaps a couple weeks ago (hoping to roll over to the 2017 at a favourable prices). That said, I still hold significant, leveraged positions in KMI warrants, CBI common + leaps, and FCAU, plus some misc positions. Notionally, they still represent about 175% of NAV although I am not sure if it is a good indication of risk. For example, the KMI warrant is 10x leveraged given the high exercise price to premium ratio. In any case, I guess my return distribution will be barbell-shaped. I would like to thank the board for the tremendously valuable ideas. My out-performance in the last 2 years wouldn't have been possible otherwise. Thanks for reading my long rambling and happy new year.

Not buying enough FCAU aka FIATY. Made it a 5% position instead of 20% (I tend to be concentrated) back in August when I hoped the price would go still lower (from a 52-week high of ~$12.50). There were catalysts already, e.g. good Maserati sales, signs of Fiat wanting to spin off Ferrari, etc. I guess GM is another miss. Agree that the oil price collapse is totally from the left field (to me).

Bought CBI common and 2017 $30 calls. Currently trading sub-8x 2015 P/E per management guidance of $5.75-6.05 EPS. Much lower than peers. Two perceived problems with the company: 1) Bad nuclear contract - huge extras that may or may not be collected. One-time issue. Management is eager to buy back shares once this matter is resolved. 2) Low oil prices lowering future work demand - this is a known problem. Company has $30B backlog which is equivalent to 2-yr of revenues. Management commented during Q3 CC that they are somewhat insulated due to their diversification into various other infrastructure work. Btw, today's price is about 30% lower than when Todd Comb bought them in 2014Q2. BRK owns almost 10% of CBI. ;)

Trimmed my long positions in KMI by selling all of my 2016 $30 strike calls. Keeping the 2017 warrants. Still long-term bullish on KMI, but wanted to take some profits amid the market making new highs.

Yep that's why I bought put spreads that pay you $5 if it's fraud for the premium of 55 cents. I also would t short this for fear of halt risk and borrow risk. Some guys who successfully identified frauds got destroyed by borrow when share were halted for months. Anyways, the base case is obviously thT the deal goes through and I lose my money, but when you see a company that has delayed SEC filings announce a buyout 20 minutes after a seeking alpha article cries fraud and the acquirer is some state owned thing, I think it's a decent bet to taken given the odds the options market is giving you. Obviously to be done in small size. I know people have mixed feelings about tilson, but I think I agree with him that betting against this thing is a good risk reward , and the put spreads make it more appealing. I cloned the exact trade today, but only got 11 contracts filled at $0.55 spread. Like the risk-reward. In China, "only the fakery is real". Thanks for the idea.

Got out of the 2015 BAC calls a while ago and now partially rolling over to a 2016 $12 position. I think the $20B market cap decline relative to its recent high is excessive vs. 1) its new legal costs (credit card settlement, etc) and 2) lower than expected capital return to shareholders.

Try this: ftp://shortstock@ftp2.interactivebrokers.com/usa.txt

ftp://ftp2.interactivebrokers.com/usa.txt No password needed

Nah, Dividend $1.72 and compound that at 8% over 2 year is about $2 per share. If the yield of the stock is stays consistent at 5% (like it is now), that equates to a $40 per share stock price. The Jan 2016 $30 calls are about $3.84. If the stock trades at $40, they'll be worth $10 (or more depending on time). That's about 160% return. Thanks for clarifying for me. :)

Added to my Jan 2016 KMI $30 strike calls. 2014 dividend is expected to be $1.72 per year. If it rises 8% a year for the next 2 years and the yield remains at 5%, we get a $40 stock and the $30 calls will go up 160% at expiry. If the yield increases to 6%, I will still almost break even. As a poster on the KMI thread mentioned, KMI has authorized another $100M of common/warrant repurchases: https://www.bamsec.com/filing/150630714000014?cik=1506307 However, per the 10K release last week, the company used the last $94M of the $250M authorization to buy back the commons. Thus, perhaps the company signals the share price will not rise quickly. There are 348M warrants outstanding @$1.80, or $626M market value for these warrants. Btw, it's interesting to see a few posters entering market puts. I am keeping a lot of dry powder too, hoping for an opportunity to buy hands-over-fist soon.

As soon as I see the opportunity to become a 1%-ers, I can't resist to be a part of it. Thanks Parsad! ;D

I used it for a little while in 2010 or so for international messaging on my cell. But since imessage, fb messenger and skype app have erased this use area completely. I have no idea why it's still so widely used. I love whatsapp, it's quick and reliable. Beats imessage because not everyone uses an iphone. Beats fb messenger because not everyone is on fb (especially people from China where fb is blocked). I heard of the other apps (SnapChat, WeChat, KaKao, Line) but don't use them. It's the network effect -- for me, at least. Not saying whatsapp is worth $16B though. But then, is FB worth $170B? Could just be one overvalued piece of paper exchanging for another similarly overvalued piece.

Structural engineer -- thinking about margin of safety all day long! ;)

73% on my biggest account. By far my best performance out of the 9 years that I have been investing. Biggest winners are AIG leaps and BAC leaps (still holding both), so obviously my return wouldn't have been possible without the knowledge generously dispensed by the people on this board. Biggest loser is LTS. In terms of style, I seem to have done well on the unloved mega caps. Other previous winners in this category include MSFT and VOD leap. Thanks again for the board and happy investing in 2014.

Just sold some XIV today. Up ~50% in the two months that I have held it. Yes I am bragging about my luck. ;D Will reload when the VIX goes above 20 again.

Yes, they (gov't) are stupid like that.

FNMAK and FNMAP are even much cheaper than the above today. Are they (the preferred issues) all ranked pari passu?

Another fund manager taking a short view of Canadian RE: http://www.marketfolly.com/2013/05/steve-eismans-sohn-conference.html More info on Steve Eisman: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Eisman

Hmmm.. about as many changes as the 4 to 4S... or even 4S to 5. Talking about iphone, of course. Not many new features left to copy from the iPhone. ;) Not disagreeing eh? ;)

Hmmm.. about as many changes as the 4 to 4S... or even 4S to 5. Talking about iphone, of course.

So at $1.2B, Buffett just bought back a little more than one month's worth of cash generation ;).

I would purchase the foreign currency first. IB has super low bid-ask spread anyways. You lost on the forex rate in the past few months too. :)

LOL. I am sure that's the reason MSFT didn't create the Metro UI until recently, and also why Apple didn't add an extra row of icons to the screen until now.

I think a lot of people in the US are upgrading because they get a free/cheap phone from their carrier every 2 years (contract). But then, the more entrepreneurial / cheap types can actually sell their new phone on craigslist and thus effectively extend their upgrade cycles, say, from 2 to 4 years. The proceeds from the sold phone can be used to considerably subsidize the hefty carrier bills that people so commonly complain about. With the iphone 5 now selling at an even higher price (before subsidy), the carriers will be even more motivated to sell the competing products.

I don't see any huge upgrades from the 4S which I am using. I do a lot of web browsing (news sites). Having a longer screen certainly won't make MY web browsing experience a lot better, so yeah an even bigger screen would be better. A CPU upgrade and from the 4S is expected. A slightly better front camera is nothing to brag about. The other improvements are mostly software. Remind me of any other hardware upgrades I missed. Btw, notice the lack of NFC? The iPhone is still among the best smartphone out there, but there's no wow factor with the iPhone 5. Specifically, there's nothing that would make one say "Wow, how many years would it take the competition to catch up with this feature?". I should also mention that in Canada, they have increased the unlocked phone price by $50 to $699 for the 16GB. Wonder whether the carriers would also lift their subsidized price or whether Apple would sell to the carriers for a higher price as well. I think this move is giving the carriers more incentives to push other brands. After all, less incentive --> more profit, all else equal. I think smartphone related technologies are still only in its infancy and have a long way to go. Go check out Nokia's Lumia 920. Their stuff may not be as polished as Apple (especially in terms of marketing), but they have some neat innovations. Video stabilization, indoor GPS (they didn't call it this but that's how I interpret it), wireless charging, and nice screen.