gokou3
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Posts posted by gokou3
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Thank you hillfronter and rukawa. Will try it out! 8)
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Does anybody else use the excel add-in "RCHGetYahooQuotes" to pull quotes? Has worked flawlessly for a long time and just suddenly stopped this week - a quick google/twitter search doesn't highlight anything.
I switched to use Bloomberg site. It's not too hard if you know a little VBA programming.
I know Excel VBA... not sure if that is what you referred to? Do I need to be a Bloomberg paid subscriber? All I need is a function that allows me to input a stock symbol and get the last price as output.
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I am not a gambler but as a preferred shareholder did some "on ground research" last Saturday, i.e. the first weekend of grand opening. I arrived there at about 9pm and the whole place was completely packed. Let me be more specific: all the seats in the game tables and slot machines in the general area were completely occupied. The high-limit slots / tables look pretty full too. We tried to get into two restaurants and the wait time was each >30 min. Minimum bet for Blackjack is $25.
The exterior of the complex is indeed not very "Vancouver-ish" - doesn't blend well into the surroundings and I can see why we see some negative online comments about that. The inside is pretty decent. Quite luxurious but not quite on par to the best Vegas casinos. The number of slots / tables is limited to the same as what they had on the old Edgewater casino (btw does the DC.A joint venture own this extremely valuable piece of land? Build a couple condo towers and it can easily be a half billion development).
Granted this was the first weekend so everyone wants to check out what's the deal, but it looks like the casino is off to a good start.
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... I would expect the company to start doing some financial engineering which should bring this thing to $4+ in no time.
Cardboard
There are a few things they can do on this front in the near- and medium-term:
1) Refinance Parq loan at lower interest rate (I think they are paying 8%+ now in a USD construction loan; lucky for them that CAD is now strong)
2) Buy back the preferred at 10% after-tax yield. These shares offer higher return than most of their investment ventures ;)
3) Further monetize non-core assets and buy back the common
OTOH, they would need to redeem 17% of the outstanding Series 5 preferred shares in January so that's a $15M outlay. Given the net cash position they are in I am not worried about liquidity.
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Bought GGP earlier in the week. High quality mall (mostly A) owner. Valued at about 7%+ cap rate vs. private sales at high 3 to low 4% for the best malls. Death of mall stories exaggerated and not very applicable to high quality mall. Still a long run-way ahead of converting dinosaurs (dept stores, low density land) into higher value uses.
Potential catalyst is Brookfield buying out the company. They own warrants equivalent to 35% of the company and the warrants will expire this November. Brookfield has indicated it will cash exercise for for maximum share ownership and not net settle . VIC has a good recent write-up about GGP.
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Bought more Dundee prefs series 2, DC.pr.b. 12% yield, p/B <<1.
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The Q2 report shows that the company is in a net cash position at the corporate level after its $100M+ sale in DREAM shares and repayment of some $60M in bank revolver. Isn't this a huge plus for the preferred given a large portion of more senior claims has been wiped out? Or is the market still waiting for 1) the deal that plug the cash drain aka UHIC to close and 2) Parq casino for a smooth opening?
https://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=8504637627187082&qm_symbol=DC.A
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If you guys want to take advantage of the current selling, there are a few imbeciles selling DC.PR.D and also DC.PR.B pretty hard today or into a vacuum of buyers right into the middle of the Summer.
Cardboard
Thanks, I have added to the D's.
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Company estimated the new BVPS = US$384.98 per page 21 of the attached March 24th presentation. Any major change since then?
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http://newtongroupwealth.com/content/uploads/PREFERRED-GUIDE-2017.pdf
Anyone has gotten a hold of the 2017 guide to preferred shares? I think Scotia has done a great job of assembling a manual of Canadian preferred shares.
Thanks, SafetyinNumbers. Have been looking for it for a few months.
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BMO Bundles Uninsured Mortgages in a Canadian Bond First
"The bond is backed by C$1.96 billion of prime residential mortgages, more than half of which are in Ontario and Quebec, according to a Moody’s pre-sale report. Around 95 percent of the securities in the transaction will be rated Aaa. The lowest rated portion will be B2, and there is a non-rated portion as well, the bond grader said."
So... another similarity to the US housing bubble now? These are not subprime loans, but they are playing the same game of slicing and dicing just like the US did circa 2003-2006. What's next, CDO and CDO^2?
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Based on something Sculpin posted I did a cap iq screen of all convertible yielding greater than 20%. Attached is the spreadsheet. I used Excel to filter out issuers with negative equity. A few that I noticed and have come up on other threads:
Argent Energy
Zargon oil & Gas
Twin Butte Energy
Pengrowth Energy
Toscana Energy
Fortress Paper
The Argent Energy Convertibles have defaulted and have a 350% yield to maturity.
I find there is too much senior debt ahead of the TBE debentures for my comfort - especially with oil down at $33. The Fortress 2019's are a good bet. Don't know Argent or Toscana enough to comment. I like the Zargon debentures and the Pengrowth ones are beginning to get interesting. Two others that may be attractive that I own are the Discovery Air debentures and Western One debentures - both series.
Discovery Air debentures which had been trading at $30 now bid $50 on talks of potential takeover.
March 06, 2017 13:50 ET
Discovery Air Updates Market
TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwired - March 6, 2017) - Discovery Air Inc. ("Discovery Air" or the "Company") (TSX:DA.A) announced, at the request of Market Surveillance on behalf of the TSX, that the Company has been approached on a preliminary basis regarding a potential corporate transaction. The Company has not received a binding proposal and is in discussions as to the viability of such potential transaction.
There can be no assurances that a definitive transaction will result from any such proposal, and there may be limited available alternative transactions having regard to the Company's current ownership structure. The Company does not intend to comment further upon any potential corporate transaction, or alternative thereto, unless and until it deems further disclosure is appropriate, or required by law.
Discovery Air and Clairvest Enter Into Definitive Agreement for Going Private Transaction
http://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=5421092754547494&qm_symbol=DA.A
The 8.375% unsecured convertible debenture (DA.A.DB) dropped 5% after the news, presumably because it will remain outstanding after the going-private transaction. At $44, the deb is trading at 100%+ YTM on June 2018. Does it mean the market is anticipating that the debenture holders will be screwed, i.e. not paid out at par at maturity? How would that scenario play out?
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Atlantic power (NYSE: AT; TSX: ATP). Both common and Preferred Series 1.
Very new to this one so bear with me. Why the preferred series 1, reading the board people seem to prefer series 3.
The discount to par is higher for the Series 1. Understood that Series 1 would be harmed by an interest rate increase while Series 2/3 would benefit, but I think such risk is somewhat priced-in based on the relative prices among the three series. If I were management and decided to buy back some preferred, my first target would be Series 1, again due to its higher yield and discount to par.
Finally, I already have several floating rate prefs in my portfolio so this would be a natural hedge.
I will try to post some notes on the AT thread later.
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Atlantic power (NYSE: AT; TSX: ATP). Both common and Preferred Series 1.
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For fun, I estimated the gross return of the average hedge funds. Based on 1) 1% annual fee charged by the fund of fund and 2) 2/20 charged by the hedge funds, the average hedge fund cumulative return actually matches the performance of S&P500!
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This document from Scotia McLeod is a very good resource too. It seems to be updated every year.
http://beltramewealthmanagement.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015-Guide-to-Preferred-Shares.pdf
The 2016 edition is now available:
http://robgrayassetmanagement.com/content/uploads/prefGuide2016.pdf
Anyone has gotten a hold of the 2017 guide to preferred shares? I think Scotia has done a great job of assembling a manual of Canadian preferred shares.
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I am a holder of TA.PR.D and TA.PR.E. I can see easily why the company wants to do it but this offer is very unfair to the existing preferred shareholders. It essentially stripped them of any potential capital gains in the old shares. I will vote against it and think all shareholders should say no. The company will need 2/3 approvals to put this through so they do have a decent barrier to surmount.
There was a similar saga several months ago with Dundee preferreds - there's a thread (search Dumbdee) on that. It actually worked out well for the shareholders who pressured the company to sweeten its offer.
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Other preferreds that look very interesting are AIM.PR.B and AIM.PR.C.
And looking at the recent stock price performance and trend and the fact that these have lagged other preferreds, I have a feeling that they are about to go En Fuego!
Cardboard
I just bought some AIM.PR.B today. As long as the company can renew its AC contract, even at less favourable terms, the common is worth >$0. The VIC write-up shows quite convincingly that the contract will be renewed. In the meantime, I collect 9%+ annual yields.
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Calgary landlords facing ‘grim’ times as almost 40% of rental properties sit empty
"Close to 40 per cent of Calgary’s available rental listings are unoccupied..."
The headline is misleading, but still...
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Guess they needed a quick $38 million however they did sell close to the 52 week low....
Dundee sells 6.1M Dream Unlimited shares
Dundee Corp (C:DC)
Shares Issued 55,535,423
Last Close DC.A 11/23/2016 $6.14
Thursday November 24 2016 - News Release
Mr. John Vincic reports
DUNDEE CORPORATION SELLS SHARES IN DREAM UNLIMITED CORP.
In accordance with regulatory requirements, Dundee Corp. has sold 6.1 million Class A subordinate voting shares of Dream Unlimited Corp. Dundee continues to hold 15,536,288 Class A shares of Dream representing an approximate 19.97-per-cent interest.
Sculpin, Thanks for providing updates on this and other preferred share issuers. I am an owner of the Dream Unlimited Preferred (DRM.PR.A) and own it for its cash-like characteristics (redeemable, higher up in the capital structure --> low risk). I also own Dundee Series 5 which will be redeemable in 2.5 years for similar reasons.
With this sale of Dream by Dundee, do you see any signals from the company -- Is it 1) due to liquidity concern with Dundee or 2) risk ahead for Dream (e.g. RE bubble bursting)? My view is that unless things got really bad, the preferred shares will still likely do ok given significant amount of common equity underneath the preferred shares for each company.
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He responded: if interest rates go up, prices will drop, but from a monthly payment standpoint, it may work out to the same.
The worst result for your friend is he locked in a high purchase price / giant mortgage, then is forced into a higher interest rate later on that large mortgage.
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Cheung Kong 0001.hk
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BAC, WFC
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FCAU.
So it's trading at 1.5x 2018E P/E, ~1.0x 2018E EV/EBIT now?
What are you buying today?
in General Discussion
Posted
I am interested to hear your thesis on VVI, as I work in an industry related to one of its businesses. TIA