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gokou3

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Posts posted by gokou3

    Fed can't keep the rates low

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Do you think we'll keep low rates and low inflation

     

    yes.

     

    long rates are going back to where they were before the pandemic.  Nature is healing. 

     

    If hyperinflation was truly here or on its way,  stocks would go down, gold would go up. The opposite is happening.  If you are reading anything about inflation coming and the author is quoting M2, velocity of money, Fed 'printing money', etc.. -- ignore them, they've given away that they don't know what they are talking about.

     

    Could we go too far?  I guess anything is possible.

     

    wabuffo

     

    What indicators should one pay attention to instead?

    What are you buying today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Topicus

     

    Although it’s likely going lower in the short term seems like a pretty good deal.

     

    I am interested in TOI, but wonder if you notice this section in page 14 of the prospectus which mentions a EUR$200M drawdown of the credit facility prior to the completion of spin-off?  Maybe I understood it wrong, but that would make the EV even higher than implied in the 2020Q3 financials.  38x EV/LTM FCF @$59 share price.

    TOI.png.389048137c39017322ff5a186360639a.png

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    This virus has no symptoms initially. By the time you have fever, it need to be treated very quickly. But a lot of people died because they couldn’t be admitted to the hospital.

    This is a country who gave billions to Africa and boosted about their Trillion dollar GDP, yet they don’t even have enough masks at times like this?!

     

    It has masks but not for its people. Wuhan Red Cross intercepted over 36000 N95 mask donations and sent it to an abortion clinic.

    China also donated 30 Million masks to Hong Kong

     

    Any source for your mask donation to hk comment? The news I see from hk is all about people desperate for masks and lining up overnight for them.  One video shows literally thousand+ ppl lining up at a small pharmacy.  Another news shows masks made by hk prisoners ending up in guangdong province

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Since we have some Chinese on this forum, if you want to donate to the efforts and couldn't find way that seem reliable, Li Lu is organizing a donation effort to support cities around Wuhan that need medical equipments.

     

    http://www.himalayacapital.com/chinese/20200130NewRelease.htm

     

    There have been many previous cases in China (not referring to Li Lu's, but in general) where donations have gone missing or directly into the Party comrades' pockets.  I am sure the Chinese govt with all its might and power can come up with the required resources on its own.

     

     

     

     

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers.

    The actual number is likely in the 100k range.

    Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down.

    I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in.

    There are thousands and thousands of such patients.

    There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.

     

    Lol what? How were they diagnosed BEFORE being hospitalized?

     

    Why not? They come to the hospital, wait for 5 hours while infecting all other patients waiting in line (and being infected as well). Then they met the doctor, who asked the nurse to do a series of lab testing for them. Then results show positive. And doctor says sorry we don't have any beds for you today. Go home and try to come here again tomorrow to see if we have any empty beds.

     

    Your story sounds like a whole load of BS. There is absolutely no way the hospital is letting an infected victim just go home. They’ll house them in tents if there aren’t any beds and keep them quarantined.

     

    Your comment is like adding salt to the wound. You have no respect and no sympathy for my relatives and for people who got infected.

    You don't have to believe anything I said. Just go there and look at it yourself.

     

    Thanks Muscleman for telling your story; much appreciated and hope you can provide more updates in the next little while.  It's sad but not surprised to read about what is happening on the ground.  Speedy recovery for your families.

     

     

    P.S. Ignore the ignorant.

     

    Fake News? US China Trade Deal? Brexit Clarity? Santa Sighting?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    China to ramp up U.S. buys under trade deal, but skeptics question targets

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china/china-to-ramp-up-u-s-car-aircraft-energy-purchases-in-trade-deal-source-idUSKBN1ZD0FN

     

    Under the trade deal to be signed on Wednesday in Washington, China would also buy over $50 billion more in energy supplies

     

    So this is like 2.4 Mbpd of incremental (?) oil purchase from China?  Must be bullish for the US oil producers and midstream companies.

    What are you buying today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    MPLX at <$27; 10% yield.  1.4x distribution coverage. K1.  Possibly catalyst from Elliott requesting to break up MPC (sponsor).

     

    https://www.remakingmpc.com/

     

    A breakup of MPC ( Sponsor and majority owner of MPLX  ) is not a positive for MPLX most likely.

    Could you kindly explain?

     

    As a majority holder of units, MPC would be on both sides of the transaction. If a transaction is favorable for MPC and marginally favorable or neutral for MPLX, it would pass a fairness opinion and would go through. I believe the main Elliot pitch is that MPLX units should be distributed to shareholders. If that happens, I would expect a hell lot of selling because most shareholders can’t or don’t want hold MLP units.

     

    This is not directly a negative for the MLP itself, but certainly for the current minority unit holders.

     

    Understood, thanks for the elaboration. Of course there is no guarantee that things will go the way Elliott envisions, but I believe their plan calls for a simple three-way split of the company, i.e. the MPC shareholders end up owning shares in 3 companies.  Wouldn't this simply involve the MPC shareholders getting a pro-rata share of MPC's current 63% ownership in MPLX? I am not creative enough to imagine how MPLX will get screwed in this process.

     

    I do agree with you that there may be forced selling after the spin, but the Elliott plan also calls for the conversion to C-corp at the same time so perhaps some forced selling can be offset by new shareholders who currently cannot buy into a MLP.

     

    Do you have any insight into MPLX's assets?  Seems like demand for the New England pipeline capacity (20% of EBITDA) is slow, but assets in other areas are in high demand and have good growth opportunity.

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