gokou3
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Posts posted by gokou3
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For what it is worth, this is a page in a slide CCME's gives to clients who want to purchase ads.
Here's the link to the slides for those who are interested:
http://www.allchina.cn/exchange/zhuanmai/userupfile/Media_attach/newmedia/20105255311159183236.ppt
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can the Fed do anything to prevent deflation?
How about a $5000 (refundable) tax credit for every citizen?
This isn't exactly dropping $ out of a helicopter as Ben originally spoke about, but it is essentially the same thing. Yet it would accomplish the same thing. Yes, some of this money will end up in banks or paying down debt, and so have no effect. However, at some point, $ will be spent. If $5000 is to small, how about a $1,000,000 refundable tax credit for every citizen. All of a sudden, a huge amount of inflation will occur. There is some level at which policy can inflate. These guys are not helpless.
I thought Japan has done that (giving money to citizens) a few times already?
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Seems obvious, but many people don't get that MSFT will never be able to release an integrated hardware/software product that's decent (Xbox excepted).
Never say never, I guess - and you provided a counter-example in your assertion too! ;)
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According to this report by Henry Blodget, the odds are not zero.
http://www.businessinsider.com/microsofts-business-could-collapse-2010-6
I supposed a lot of ppl predicted the collapse of Mr. Blodget's career after the .com bust too.. guess that didn't exactly happened.
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One of the reasons why Apple is so good is that their backwards compatibility is so atrocious. They have had the flexibility to just completely toss out the old and reinvent their platform.
Microsoft can't do that to their corporate customers. So you get these products that are compromises between the past and the present.
I would not trust Apple with my desktops if I were a very large corporation.
Exactly why I think the money will keep rolling into the MSFT castle.
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I was a buyer of MSFT at $18 (last year). The price was so low that I thought the Windows + Office businesses alone would be worth the EV. Their server business is quite valuable too although I didn't even attempt to value it. All the Bing / Mobile / zune / funny businesses are just noise (or options if you want to call them that).
Windows & Office are not going away anytime soon, especially in the corporate setting. The argument is related to compatibility. For example, however google doc / staroffice / etc improve, there's no way they will replace *100%* of the functions of Office. For a corporate user, there will always be at least 1 or 2 features that he can't find it on a competing software and this would deter the organization from switching. 99.999% similarity is not sufficient -- simple network effect. And then of course, no one wants to send his client a file that may not be 100% compatible, whether that's a perceived or real risk.
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Well the XBox is #3 in market share after the PS3 and Wii...
I think Xbox 360 > PS3 in market share.. someone corrects me if I am wrong. I think the amazing thing about xbox is it emerged from a nobody to a significant player. When the original xbox was released, I was thinking "what's msft doing? how could it possibly compete with PS2?" And now the xbox business is profitable.
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One way would be to buy out of the money calls on TBT. You can buy Jan 12 75 calls for about 2. If IRs double (about 10%), then TBT will go to 120 from 40 today and calls will be worth 45 and if IRs go up to 20% then TBT will go to 160 so calls will be worth 85. These are only 1 yr 7 mo calls vs. Klarman's calls. The one risk is if the volatility increase above 25%, then TBTs performance degrades. I wasn't able to find any LEAPs on another LT bond ETF which would remove this risk. Do you own DD to confirm the numbers above.
Packer
Thanks for your response. I have thought about TBT too - trying to figure out whether it's better to buy TBT call or TLT put.
There's also long-treasury interest rate options like TYX but alas, maturity is within 1 year.
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Inflation is a risk that Klarman said he is particularly concerned with given the government's high rate of borrowing to bail out the financial system. Baupost has purchased far out-of-the-money puts on bonds to hedge the risk, he said.
The puts, which Klarman said he viewed as "cheap insurance," will expire worthless even if long-term interest rates rise to 6 or 7 percent. But if rates rise to 10 percent, Baupost would make large gains, and if rates exceed 20 percent the firm could make 50 or 100 times its outlay.
Can someone enlighten me on whether a retail investor has access to such trades? I assume those put options have long maturity (>1-2 years) too. TIA
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One analyst estimated the amount of collateral required is $8B... that's like 8 months of BRK's earning? Hardly Armageddon. I suppose the companies will be allowed some time to come up with the collateral after the bill passes.
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Nice points, I agree with you. I think the only winners of a RMB revaluation are the manufacturers in other asian countries. Americans can dream all they want about "getting back THEIR (basic) manufacturing jobs" while paying xx% more for stuff at Walmart.
It's funny that I've seen this type of discussion thread, more and more recently. My views on this follows, not that is means much to you or it matters:
1. Most part of US population lead by polititcians are arrogant towards China. In the similar fashion that they believed in the recent wars.
2. Whatever labels people use for different people only show their own limited views of the real world. Being it capitalism or socialism they use in this case.
3. The whole situation will continue just like religions do.
4. If you notice, WEB and Charlie Munger never framed a nation with these big words, they take things as are. They truely have objective mindset in judging things. We as investers need to learn this skill.
5. It was a mistake for the Chinese 30 years ago to have believed that all capitalism was bad. It proves a bigger mistake for the US to think that all capitalism is good.
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I own the jpm warrants.
May I ask which broker do you use? I tried looking it up through Interactive broker and BMO (Canada), but couldn't find it. TIA.
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BRK-BNI
I entered this first back in November. The trade involves selling the $100 apr put on BNI and buying the $95 put. For doing so, you currently receive about $1.1, and must post $3.90 in margin per share ($5 - $1.1 = $3.9). This results in a 28% return as long as the deal with BRK goes through.
Interesting idea. One can also short the $100 call and buy the $105 call, with the only risk being someone putting in a higher offer than $100. Such risk is even smaller than the merger falling apart IMO. As of Jan. 27 closing, bid price for Apr10 $100C is $1.15 and ask price for Apr10 $105C is $0.65, meaning a $0.50 premium earned per spread contract for maximum payout of $5 (if BNI ends up above $105). 10% return vs VAR.
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Secondly, the supply of gold is outstripping its demand. Approximately 4,100 tonnes was supplied to market in 2009. Demand for the metal was around 3,500 tonnes of which about 1,680 was for jewellery and 1,820 tonnes was for ‘investment’. That leaves at least 600 tonnes without a home.
I would be very interested in where these figures come from.
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You miss the point about Kindle and other ebook readers: the ebook readers use a new display technology called electronic ink. I wouldn't even compare this to software pdf readers or the Apple ITablet. Both, in my mind, are very different to the Kindle and Sony's ebook reader. Here's the thing, these devices, in read mode, DO NOT DRAW CURRENT FROM THE BATTERY. And they are very light, slim, and have a screen that mimics real paper. Why would I want to lug around the equivalent of a laptop when a thin, light ebook reader is all I need? When they finally have a pressure sensitive displays, I think we'll have a game changer. You'll be able to write notes in your books and mark them up like a real book. That would be great for students.
As for AMZN as a short, you've gotta be nuts. I would never short a leader with strong growth prospects. There are much better oppty's out there with better risk/reward setups than something like this. You've got no edge here.
Kawikaho, thanks for summarizing the benefits of e-reader vs. traditional devices. Any idea of the profit margin AMZN makes on the Kindle hardware itself? I know the money is in the subsequent ebook sales, but would be curious whether they make money on the hardware as well.
Although AMZN is a leader as you said, given the high valuation ratios (P/E, P/B) I don't think it's a *nutty* idea to short AMZN (maybe a mediocre idea?). However, I agree with you that there are probably better opportunities out there. Perhaps you already have an idea or two?
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Hi,
First time posting on this board. This thread is timely to me because a friend recently asked me for my opinion about AMZN as a SHORT idea and I have little knowledge of the company other than the fact that I like it as a customer. After a very brief examination of the company, I see that the stock price has made a new all-time high and its latest buzz is in the Kindle e-reader which the market sees as a growth engine.
Now, I have no experience with Kindle or any e-reader, but a question quickly comes up: Why does one need to buy a new piece of hardware to read ebooks? I understand there's also a software version of Kindle for the iphone & blackberry, but it seems that people are most interested in the hardware. However, I believe netbooks / cellphones will eventually be good enough to match and exceed the functionality of Kindle. Why make another piece of hardware that can do only one thing?
Besides, I would much rather NOT carry another device around, and I suspect many other people would share my preference. It seems that the war in e-readers will get down to software (for netbook/cellphone/whatever hardware that supports it) and this will likely evolve into a winner-take-all scenario (like ebay in the auction business) and at this stage it's difficult to see who will win. As others have pointed out already there are many big players looking to compete in this space. Maybe someone can enlighten me on the superiority of the Kindle platform vs. others. I don't see Kindle has any moat yet other than it being a first-mover (which admittedly is a big advantage in a winner-take-all situation)
I haven't reached my conclusion yet whether AMZN is a short, but at least it doesn't look like a buy to me.
Buffett hints at bond bubble
in Berkshire Hathaway
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I am not familiar with CMS, could you please clarify: if rates go to 20% tomorrow and stay at 20% for the next 5 years, would you make $11MM PER YEAR for the next 5 years (i.e. $55MM total, undiscounted)? Thanks,