gokou3
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Posts posted by gokou3
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All the posturing from the NAFTA re-negotiation seems to eventually target China, according to this article:
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Is this a paradigm change for (northern) BC? Would the average Joe in BC benefit from this?
Shell, Partners Approve $31 Billion Project to Speed Gas to Asia
TransCanada to begin gas pipeline construction in 2019 if LNG Canada project goes ahead
B.C.'s natural gas reserves double previous estimates
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For the past few days, ENB between C$42.7-$44; BIP @ C$49.75.
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The common shares have had a nice run up into the $1.70 range which ironically makes it harder for Dundee to exert pressure on the E prefs to renegotiate the terms. Being converted into common at $2 is a lot less scary than when the stock was much lower.
I guess when Dundee reports Q3 the common price may turn south again... more losses at Parq, no update on asset disposals, something catches fire, etc. ::)
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Thanks for sharing.
Per 2018Q2 earnings PR,
"At June 30, 2018 common shareholders' equity was $2,056.2 million, or $13.26 per share"
So adding $1.62 to this would give $14.88, close to the current stock price. The INR currrency dropped by 5% since June 30, but since with the successful investments in Sanmar and Bangalore airport, i think I can have some confidence in the Indian team's ability to allocate capital.
For this, I just initiated a long position.
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Brookfield? They have:
Hotel operation experience
Casino operation experience
Vancouver commercial property experience
Low cost of capital
Of course they won't pay high prices for it...
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Basically Roumell is asking the company to stiff the E holders instead of the common holders. I like that. E holders have been living in a fantasy for a long while (until recently) that they would get par back in 2019.
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Additional research from JLL on Nov 2017:
http://www.jll.ca/canada/en-ca/Research/CAN-Vancouver-Hotel-Market-Report-2017-JLL.pdf
As one of the highest barriers to entry markets in North America, Vancouver has seen subdued supply growth over the past fiveyears. With the outstanding lodging fundamentals, development activity has accelerated. Three new luxury hotels have opened
in the downtown area, including the 147-room Trump Hotel Vancouver, the 329-room JW Marriott Parq Vancouver and the 188-
room Autograph Collection the Douglas, the latter two projects anchor the $600 million Parq Vancouver mega-entertainment
complex. Additionally, the 202-room Exchange Hotel by Executive Hotels & Resorts is under construction and will be located in
the new Exchange Tower. The hotel is set to open in the Summer of 2018. In total, these four new hotels add 866 new rooms to the
Vancouver lodging market.
To offset the new luxury offerings, the 357-room Empire Landmark Hotel and the 199-room Coast Plaza Hotel have closed, with
a total of 556 rooms that have exited the market and will be converted to alternate uses. The trend of room supply leaving the
market on the low end of the ADR and quality spectrum whilst being replaced by newer luxury five-star hotel product, has recently
been seen in Canadian markets like Toronto. The flight-to-quality in Toronto resulted in a significant ADR push in the upper-
upscale market, with second and third tier hotels following suit, collectively lifting previous rate ceilings in the market.
Over the next few years, muted supply growth is anticipated in Downtown Vancouver, as Smith Travel Research (“STR”) reports
no announced hotels in the development pipeline as of October 2017. As demand continues to soar in Vancouver, the flight-to-
quality shift in the sector remains, coupled with major renovations expected in a number of upper-upscale hotels in the city, it is
anticipated that rates will continue their positive trajectory, with no signs of slowing down in the near term.
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Given the company is lacking cash, I think it's quite possible that management will offer to redeem the E at a discount to par, like $18 per pref, in lieu of converting to the common. This would lessen the dilution for Goodman and stick it to the preferred holders.
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More FCAU by going long the Jan 2020 $13 and $15 leaps.
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...and rates for the beginning of November, should be low season. Someone who has more experience in hotel valuations can figure out a value based on these room rates.
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Their two hotels should worth something. Here are some room rates for end of July (peak hotel season for Vancouver) - first and last ones.
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Who is making money from struggling U.S. malls?
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Common or prefs?
Commons. Not sure whether that's the best risk-reward investment but I find it easier to get a sense for value with common stocks versus preferreds.
How do you compare the two asset classes to determine best value in this case? Or did you buy both to not have to?
For Dundee, I simply do not trust the competency or integrity of the management so from a risk perspective I don't have enough confidence in the commons. The preferred OTOH offers a nice 12% dividend return (on cost) and I think it's very safe given the large discount to NAV at the moment. However, if management continues to screw around and has more writedown, even the preferred may become uninvestable. If they are able to turn around, then yes the common could provide a much greater return than the pref.
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Common or prefs?
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14M sqft as of April '18, giving us a very clean $2,500/sqft valuation, before community adjustments of course.
This is insane. WW is basically in a spread business - pay long-term rent to a landlord, do something to the premise, and then sub-lease it short(er)-term at a hopefully higher price while taking all the hassles and risks of vacanies, dealing with small tenants, etc. If they are successful at it, then 1) the landlord would rise its rent at renewal, and/or 2) the landlord will copy the not-so-secret sauce. In fact, large landlords like Brookfield must be already thinking about it, per below (i think the deal has been called off since though):
https://www.ft.com/content/2e670bea-e82a-11e7-bd17-521324c81e23
Does anyone know how much spread WW earns, i.e. what's the rent difference between their premises and a comparable space?
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A little bit more BRK-B at $190
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More PVF.UN (Partners Value LP). 30%+ discount to NAV now.
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More Dundee preferred. DC.pr.d
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One is not eligible for infrastructure, it just is for being there. Healthcare has no real additional cost. I mean countries in Europe serve anyone , you just pay cash or through private health insurance (also a pretty small fee). You can go to private clinics (but there are hardly any in canada and that is a criticism of the healthcare system not that the wealthy choose to come to a nation that has limited healthcare options) . I've lived in countries that had no capital gains tax and very low flat income tax. All medical is included in a small fee. What's wrong with that? They get capital flowing in which is spent around. Even investment in real estate has benefits if the owner is living somewhere else. There is a fundamental mismanagement of resources I think in some countries versus others. Also I believe the issue is this wealth is coming but they are not declaring themselves as residents. Smartly so! Canada has a departure tax. If they became resident and their assets globally increased in value they would have to pay a departure tax when leaving even if they don't spend time in canada. Doesn't sound like a great deal so I would probably try to do the same. However I agree that collecting child benefits or gst credits is silly. They should just cross-index it against total assets. But I also believe they should stop charging exit taxes. It's not like there is some great privilege to using the roads. Every country in the world would laugh at the idea of charging for the use of day to day things, even more-so if one is spending more time abroad than domestically.
Infrastructure costs money to maintain... and in many cases their deterioration is inline with usage.. and sometimes the cost is not monetary, but in the declining level of service. Vancouver has the second worst traffic jam in NA.
Healthcare has no real additional cost? I am not sure how to respond to that.. in any case, I wouldn't want my tax dollars go to the treatments of abled people who just happen to be a resident and have never paid income tax because they are rich enough to not need to work.
And for departure tax... I actually never heard of them; not saying it doesn't exist, i just don't know. Perhaps because I have never heard people paying them? When someone decides to leave for good, I am not sure if they would have the appetite to pay for a departure tax. Not like they would get stopped at the airport for not paying the tax...
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I read sometime ago that Richmond is one of the poorest communities in BC - ranked by income, of course. Go figure.
There are people who live in $5+ million dollar homes and receive childcare benefits due to their "low incomes". Their income may not even pay off their property tax.
Why would one support a system where people could bring their wealth to Canada, not work for a single day here and hence not pay any income tax, and be eligible automatically for all benefits (healthcare, infrastructure, etc), is beyond me.
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Bought Terraform Power (TERP) today. TERP just completed a private offering of $650M at $10.66/share to its sponsor Brookfield for the acquisition of Saeta Yield, owner of >1000MW of solar/wind power. 7% dividend yield, 5-8% annual growth guided by management. 80% 2018 pro-forma pay-out. First-class management and alignment of interest with Brookfield. Downside is high leverage but management states it is working on lowering to 4-5X, and the Saeta acquisition helps that effort.
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Darn! That's really too bad. Bloomberg was one of my last few sources for good business news after WSJ toughened up their wall.
You can break the WSJ paywall with
What are you buying today?
in General Discussion
Posted
WFC