Ballinvarosig Investors
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30 Year Bond
Ballinvarosig Investors replied to watsa_is_a_randian_hero's topic in General Discussion
RE: losing shirt...Yields can only go to 0. There are limited losses on this short. My point was referring to the fact that timing markets is a mugs game. -
30 Year Bond
Ballinvarosig Investors replied to watsa_is_a_randian_hero's topic in General Discussion
Buy an ETF - http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSEARCA%3ATBT You could lose your shirt speculating though. -
30x earnings for a mediocre business? I suspect Dell will continue to deploy free cash flow in a less than optimal way. Dell at $12.50 is cheap, and might even be worth tactically trading. I wouldn't want to make it a long-term holding though.
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I am with Parsad on this, for once. I actually held a tiny amount of stock a few years ago, but sold when they announced the deal to buy Perot Systems. Don't get me wrong, I like Michael Dell. I don't think there is a person in the world who could run the operational part of Dell as well as he can. You only need to look at his competitors margins and to see that he is running things as well as anyone possibly could. In that regard, I commend him for his skill and enthusiasm. My problem with him though is the capital allocation part of his skillset is sorely lacking. Look at the acquisition of Perot Systems for example. A massive amount of cash was spent buying a similar business but at an inflated price (1.4x sales as opposed to 0.5x sales for Dell and 30x earnings as opposed to 6x earnings for Dell). It's all well and good talking about free cash flow, but cash is no good if shareholders aren't seeing it, or it isn't being allocated properly. On the other hand, if Dell had used that $4billion and returned it to shareholders through buybacks, we might be looking at a $20 stock today. If you ask me, Michael Dell should follow the advice that he himself gave to Apple back in 1997 - http://news.cnet.com/2100-1001-203937.html I think when Dell build up the cash balances further, they are going to simply do another Perot System-type acquisition and yet again, shareholders will see good money thrown after bad. After all, all Michael Dell knows is how to run a computer hardware company. Given his history, it's unlikely he will ever admit that he operates in a lousy business and that he should exit it and make himself redundant.
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First he he buys IBM, now GM - I am shocked at this move! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-15/berkshire-discloses-stake-in-gm-as-buffett-bets-on-stocks.html
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More Foul Play in China - Qiao Xing Mobile
Ballinvarosig Investors replied to JEast's topic in General Discussion
You didn't mildly criticise him though, you mocked him. Also, your comments strike me as a little "gleeful". I don't think Parsad has a problem with anyone attacking an investment made by anyone is is acquainted with. I know I have criticised investments made by the likes of Tim McElvaine and Fairfax here before, but I would never dream of defaming their person. These guys give a heck of a lot to the community for very little in return and just because I might think they are wrong on occasion, it doesn't give me the right to belittle them. -
The Greek stock market crash is now officially worse than the US market crash of 29-32! http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/05/the-greek-stock-market-has-now-fallen-over-88/256888/
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Hugh Hendry's letter to shareholders
Ballinvarosig Investors replied to nwoodman's topic in General Discussion
http://www.eclectica-am.com/temp/1_summary.png His fund is the blue line, his bench mark is the MSCI World Index Total Return fund which is in red. The letter is certainly a thought provoking read. -
Downhill speed in a bicycle race?
Ballinvarosig Investors replied to twacowfca's topic in General Discussion
Oh for cryin' out loud. Grow up. -
Chinese small caps and dodgy accounting
Ballinvarosig Investors replied to petec's topic in General Discussion
In most cases, Chinese companies involved in accounting scandals have real and active operations. -
In today's news. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17732910
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http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Buffet-pal-and-US-billionaires-shop-for-distressed-businesses-in-Ireland--145898895.html eircom is the former stated owned phone company that has recently filed for examinership by the way.
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Where are people in this forum from?
Ballinvarosig Investors replied to beerbaron's topic in General Discussion
London, England. -
Mother of All Bubbles -- China
Ballinvarosig Investors replied to JEast's topic in General Discussion
Hugh Hendry is suggesting a Michael Burry-esque trade to capitalise on a Chinese slowdown by betting against Japanese shipping, banking and steel companies. I believe his short-credit strategy worked out spectacularly last year. -
Wow, how did you end up meeting him? I wrote him a letter, he replied! Amazing to think what a little flattery can do.
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I had the pleasure of meeting Walter; even though he didn't know me from Adam, he put up with me speaking to him for nearly an hour. All that time he was incredible warm, patient and humble, and despite his years, was still very lucid. A real gentleman, and a huge loss for all.
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Biglari holdings owns berkshire, GS??
Ballinvarosig Investors replied to Gopinath's topic in General Discussion
ITEX is not deemed reportable by virtue of the fact that it's traded OTC. The SEC maintains a list of securities that must be filed in a 13F, see this link, might be helpful in future - http://www.sec.gov/divisions/investment/13f/13flist2011q3.pdf -
Biglari holdings owns berkshire, GS??
Ballinvarosig Investors replied to Gopinath's topic in General Discussion
Re-post - http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/biglari-holdings-investment-portfolio-revealed/ -
The Greek parliament passes the Troika bailout conditions! - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9078221/Greece-passes-crucial-bailout-vote-as-country-burns.html I have to say, I thought the bolded statement from Papademos was cute considering he is an un-elected, ECB lackey.
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http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100014697/for-greece-a-tear-for-brussels-a-blush/ http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100014720/greek-death-spiral-accelerates/ As Greece reaches a deal, the situation continues to deteriorate rapidly.
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So Whos makin money?
Ballinvarosig Investors replied to moore_capital54's topic in General Discussion
Was lucky enough to have bought BAC close to their lows, RLI and PRA have also walloped it out of the park. Other positions have gone with the market. Still holding a decent cash position and dipped into it to buy TSCO. Don't think the market is cheap, but it is an election year, the Fed balance sheet is soaring and liquidity is being pumped into the system both in America and abroad, so only a fool would take a position against national governments. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/01/living-in-a-qe-world/ - article is well worth reading http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/balu1.gif I await the torrent of abuse from those that say macro doesn't matter, and that "I only buy cheap stocks" 8)