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Ballinvarosig Investors

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Everything posted by Ballinvarosig Investors

  1. Just one quarter of bad numbers? The collapse in subscriber numbers is accelerating. 2012 Q3 - lost 1M subscribers. 2012 Q4 - lost 3M subscribers. 2013 Q1 - lost 4M subscribers. The launch of BB10 and the Z10 in particular looks like it has been a disaster. The fact that more people are buying BB7 devices (a platform that is all but dead) says it all. Even the diehards on Crackberry sound utterly gutted and demoralized. BB10 not being ported to the Playbook looks like the final kick in the teeth for many of them. If the Q10 or the Q5 don't gain any traction in the next quarter, then the best thing Blackberry could do is just kill off BB10 rather just burning through cash.
  2. I see that that their website (www.chanticleeradvisors.com) no longer works. Would be a shame if these guys went out of business, they always had great ideas and made money pretty consistently (from what I saw at least!).
  3. That is worse than what I expected. If it was just a bone-headed accounting error, then perhaps you could forgive management. The fact that Chanticleer did business with someone who subsequently robbed from the company is pretty damning.
  4. http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/93859/000092189512002178/sc13d07428029_11122012.htm Trading at about book value, have posted some very good underwriting numbers in recent years. You'd get expect a takeout at about 17 bucks. Interesting.
  5. $10 is very reasonable, just don't go getting ideas and end up doing a Biglari on it by jacking up the fee later on ;D Since you have a few bucks to play around with, why not run a competition in the Investment Ideas board? To make things interesting, you can use all that registration cash to put up a token prize ($20 or something similar) for the best idea. Just a thought to maybe generate some more discussion.
  6. It's nearly $900 sim-free here in Europe. Personally, I think I will stick with my $200 Nokia that pretty much does everything that the iPhone does ;D
  7. I don't see a problem in what he did (anyone dumb enough to buy based on his analysis deserves to be parted with their money), but I do think he is hurting his reputation.
  8. Dell to buy Quest Software for $28 a share. http://www.nasdaq.com/article/dell-to-acquire-quest-software-for-236-billion-following-bidding-war-20120702-00542 Looks expensive to me.
  9. http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0619/ryanair-makes-all-cash-offer-for-aer-lingus.html I believe Francis Chou has a few share in Aer Lingus (it's trading below net cash) and am sure there are a few value investors around these parts that might hold some Ryanair stock. I don't think O'Leary will actually succeed in getting Aer Lingus at €1.30, but if he gets it at anywhere near that price, I think it will be an extremely canny move. Aer Lingus have one of the youngest fleets of all the carriers and there is plenty of room in the former state-owned company for cost cutting!
  10. RE: losing shirt...Yields can only go to 0. There are limited losses on this short. My point was referring to the fact that timing markets is a mugs game.
  11. Buy an ETF - http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSEARCA%3ATBT You could lose your shirt speculating though.
  12. 30x earnings for a mediocre business? I suspect Dell will continue to deploy free cash flow in a less than optimal way. Dell at $12.50 is cheap, and might even be worth tactically trading. I wouldn't want to make it a long-term holding though.
  13. I am with Parsad on this, for once. I actually held a tiny amount of stock a few years ago, but sold when they announced the deal to buy Perot Systems. Don't get me wrong, I like Michael Dell. I don't think there is a person in the world who could run the operational part of Dell as well as he can. You only need to look at his competitors margins and to see that he is running things as well as anyone possibly could. In that regard, I commend him for his skill and enthusiasm. My problem with him though is the capital allocation part of his skillset is sorely lacking. Look at the acquisition of Perot Systems for example. A massive amount of cash was spent buying a similar business but at an inflated price (1.4x sales as opposed to 0.5x sales for Dell and 30x earnings as opposed to 6x earnings for Dell). It's all well and good talking about free cash flow, but cash is no good if shareholders aren't seeing it, or it isn't being allocated properly. On the other hand, if Dell had used that $4billion and returned it to shareholders through buybacks, we might be looking at a $20 stock today. If you ask me, Michael Dell should follow the advice that he himself gave to Apple back in 1997 - http://news.cnet.com/2100-1001-203937.html I think when Dell build up the cash balances further, they are going to simply do another Perot System-type acquisition and yet again, shareholders will see good money thrown after bad. After all, all Michael Dell knows is how to run a computer hardware company. Given his history, it's unlikely he will ever admit that he operates in a lousy business and that he should exit it and make himself redundant.
  14. First he he buys IBM, now GM - I am shocked at this move! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-15/berkshire-discloses-stake-in-gm-as-buffett-bets-on-stocks.html
  15. You didn't mildly criticise him though, you mocked him. Also, your comments strike me as a little "gleeful". I don't think Parsad has a problem with anyone attacking an investment made by anyone is is acquainted with. I know I have criticised investments made by the likes of Tim McElvaine and Fairfax here before, but I would never dream of defaming their person. These guys give a heck of a lot to the community for very little in return and just because I might think they are wrong on occasion, it doesn't give me the right to belittle them.
  16. The Greek stock market crash is now officially worse than the US market crash of 29-32! http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/05/the-greek-stock-market-has-now-fallen-over-88/256888/
  17. http://www.eclectica-am.com/temp/1_summary.png His fund is the blue line, his bench mark is the MSCI World Index Total Return fund which is in red. The letter is certainly a thought provoking read.
  18. Oh for cryin' out loud. Grow up.
  19. In most cases, Chinese companies involved in accounting scandals have real and active operations.
  20. Klarman incidently owns another French small cap company, a textile manufacturer called Chargeurs - http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CRI:FP Numbers in the last few years have been horrific and he has taken a bath.
  21. In today's news. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17732910
  22. http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Buffet-pal-and-US-billionaires-shop-for-distressed-businesses-in-Ireland--145898895.html eircom is the former stated owned phone company that has recently filed for examinership by the way.
  23. Yes, let's just dismiss her arguments as those of a hysterical old bat ::)
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