Ballinvarosig Investors

The other PIGS must be fuming. Greece have been given a massive debt-writedown despite the fact that many of the structural reforms that were supposed to have been in place years ago have still not been implemented. How long will it be until the debts of Portugal and Ireland become so great that they too will start asking where are is their writedown?

They've interviewed together before. http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2010/1011/rich-list-10-omaha-warren-buffett-jay-z-steve-forbes-summit-interview.html

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericjackson/2012/01/02/the-seven-habits-of-spectacularly-unsuccessful-executives/

PM HarryLong, he mentioned it before to me and may know where you can get a copy.

I have been civil, so I don't understand why you are taking such a disrespectful and sarcastic tone with me. You've also decided to put a few words into my mouth to try and back your argument up, this does you a disservice. What have I said that you disagree with? That one should not keep cash on hand for opportunities? That one should not take advantage of a market sell-off driven by macro events? That one should not fish in the cheapest markets?

I agree with you Parsad. What we saw in 2008 and 2009 was likely to be a one-time, generational event. Today, there are too many folks who won't be as fearful the next time we get a crisis, and who will stand in and prevent the market from falling to those kinds of levels again. The European debate is also probably overblown at this stage. If you excuse the expression, it's a "known unknown" and the market isn't even likely to react too badly to an organized break-up of the Eurozone. Unlike some on here, I think it's madness to be fully invested in this market though. There will be surprises in the market and buying opportunities down the line. A European or Chinese bank imploding is certainly not off the cards and could cause panic. Weakness in the Chinese economy could cause the mother of all ruminations as highly-dependent emerging economies could take a pasting. Who knows when we'll get the next crisis but I will wager we won't be waiting more than 2-3 years for one, and that the folks with dry powder who are capable of holding their noses will do quite well.

I don't think so. The months following the Lehman Brothers collapse was the closest I have seen to a "Death of Equities" moment. I remember the stunned silences on CNBC as stocks continually hit new yearly-lows and later watching one acquaintance have a nervous breakdown after getting a margin call on a CFD he had taken out. Today, the market is a very different place. There is so much trash in the commanding ridiculous prices (Groupon, Salesforce, Tesla, etc.), not forgeting the mooted $100 billion Facebook floatation. You still have commodities at very high levels and even the stalwart mega-caps (PG, KO, etc.) are now looking at close to fair value. The US market certainly isn't particularly cheap on an overall level, especially when you take into consideration the usual value metric of stock market size to GDP, historic PE's and the long-term treasury yield. I think there is probably a little better value in Europe; Total, Nestle, EDF and a few other large caps are at reasonably cheap prices. There is certainly nothing to suggest a firesale anywhere at the moment. I am probably asking too much to see a return to 2008 when investors were puking their guts up and we saw real capitulation. A disorderly Euro exit, or something that would spook the markets is just what I would like to see.

Did you even bother to read anything I linked to? The two articles I mentioned are all backed up by quotes from the biggest media sources in Ireland. Richie Boucher in his capacity as head of CEO of the Retail division was personally responsible for lending billions of Euro to a variety of failed developers and companies. I don't know how much clearer I can be about this. Do you really think the reward for losing a relatively small company billions, should be a promotion? The Bank of Ireland stake is only small money in the scheme of Fairfax. However, I would prefer if Fairfax and the other dominant shareholders would push for a new, foreign CEO in Bank of Ireland, one that is untainted with the previous reckless culture of the bank. I know that Prem is no fool, so I am hoping that he is working in the background to give this company the leadership that it needs. It will certainly need it, as the NPA's are continuing to increase in the bank as the Irish economy shrinks.

Where do people get this notion that Richie Boucher (the Bank of Ireland CEO) is even remotely capable? The only reason that Bank of Ireland isn't under the control of the Irish State was because they repeatedly diluted their own stake each time Bank of Ireland were supposed to raise capital. His Wiki page is completely damning, as is this other compilation of statements he made as the bank was in the process of imploding. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richie_Boucher http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=19&t=40459 I wouldn't trust the man to make the tea, let alone manage one of the biggest banks in Ireland.

I have actually eaten at Fionn MacCool's and it was terrible, even for "pub grub". As bad as that was, the horrific pint of Guinness I had was even worse! Parsad, you've got a direct line to the top; if Prem is looking for a man to do some quality control on their Guinness, PM me 8)

Bmichaud hasn't said anything about whether stocks are cheap or expensive. He has merely shown that the scale of share buyback's isn't necessarily an indication that the market is cheap.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45387194

http://www.gurufocus.com/news/153165/prem-watsa-buys-lvlt-rimm-c-mmi-ppp-sells-kft Sandridge gets dumped heavily, Level 3 and RIM increased considerably. Small positions initiated in a miner and Motorola Mobility. Level 3 is now the third largest position, RIM the fifth largest.

https://variantperceptions.wordpress.com/2011/08/29/charting-banking-xxii-three-years-after-lehman/ http://variantperceptions.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/screen-shot-2011-08-27-at-9-53-45-am.png http://variantperceptions.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/screen-shot-2011-08-27-at-9-54-18-am.png?w=463&h=247 http://variantperceptions.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/screen-shot-2011-08-27-at-9-54-01-am1.png?w=459&h=246 http://variantperceptions.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/screen-shot-2011-08-29-at-12-37-56-pm.png?w=457&h=242 http://variantperceptions.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/screen-shot-2011-08-27-at-9-54-38-am.png?w=466&h=254 In my opinion, there is a lot to be said for buying selected trashy financials that have just made it through this crisis.

More on ACSOI.

How many of the protesters are on $50k a year, which puts them in the global 1% bracket? http://www.globalrichlist.com/

Biglari has responded, his arrogance is breathtaking. http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/93859/000092189511002068/prrn14a07428021_11032011.htm By the way, I can see why he is so eager to try and initiate change in Cracker Barrel. From a cost basis, he must be down by about $10-$15 million on his position from last quarter. Since BH is likely to swing into a loss for this quarter, do you think Biglari will be returning his bonus compensation for the previous quarter, Parsad ;D

How Bernie Madoff :o

St Joe hits new lows today and appears to be approaching Einhorn's valuation of the company.

In Ireland, we have all that already. The state-run electric and gas company is soon to be put on the auction block. We have been bombarded with massive tax increases (income tax is up, lower-paid workers being brought into the tax net, water charges, property taxes, etc.). There is a ban on new public sector employment and many public sector workers are been pushed into early retirement. What I have outlined isn't even the end of it for Ireland. Under the EU/IMF bailout deal, it is planned that we will have austerity budgets every year until the end of 2015, when it is expected that we finally bring our deficit to under 3%. The European crisis isn't over by a long shot and the action that has been taken this week has just introduced even more moral hazard. Nations like Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy, which are already teetering on the brink are now being told that if they do miss their targets and end up becoming a complete basket case, they'll have their debts written off. Also, the measures of this week do nothing to address the real issue of why Europe is a basket case (i.e. because most countries simply cannot live within their means). I'm getting really sick of hearing this phrase, but this is yet another instance of the can being kicked down the road.

Another thing, the Greek government look likely to nationalise the banking system. What sort of bodies will be found hidden in the Greek banking system? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-27/greek-bank-investors-facing-wipeout-as-nationalization-looms.html

Not really, the Greek debt to GDP ratio is only being brought down to 120%. Meanwhile, the Greek economy is still imploding, so that figure is likely to increase as each year passes. It may very well come to pass that Greece will be forced into another default in two years time. Also, this does nothing to address the debt of the other pigs. I know that here in Ireland, people are asking why are we being asked to endure austerity and to repay all our debts (plus banking sector debt) in full?

I was chatting with a chap who has dealt with Weschler recently. Apparently Weschler is a commited Republican too ;D

I certainly would not be impressed if I was an investor. He is like making the trade through something called a currency swaption - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swaption. His risk exposure is likely to be very asymmetric.

He won't get any credit here.