beerbaron
-
Posts
1,487 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by beerbaron
-
-
Quick question ...If they plan to hold their muni for the long term, why are they classified as available for sell in their balance sheet?
Don't mistake I love that their bonds are marked to market, it makes my life so much easier to value the company.
BeerBaron
-
Congrats, and hopefully the next 9 years will be as successfull as the last 9.
BeerBaron
-
Grant hit it's nose on Japan. I wonder what are it's toughs on this. Too bad no students asked.
BeerBaron
-
I hate Apple products but I must admit he did great things to improve the accessibility of computers.
BeerBaron
-
Dam Buffett is not buying anything. Does it mean it's time for caution?
BeerBaron
-
Here is what I note:
Klarman, started reducing it's stock positions.
I like Brrokfield Infrastructure Partner's idea of Pabrai.
BeerBaron
-
Anyone see the 30 yr rates? Man, they have jumped in the past month. It's the first time I've seen the 30 yr rates hit over 5% in a while. Historically, we're just reverting to the mean. However, mean reversion requires an overshoot to the average. So, will we see 8.5% 30 yr rates? Will the Fed be able to monetize debt? I think anything above 6.5% and the housing market will get creamed.
Nothing QE3 can't solve >:(
BeerBaron
-
I'm worried for Buffett's safety. Maybe he's going to try a "Mark David Chapman" on him. :-\
-
Does the regulation include synthetic shorts as well?
BeerBaron
-
-
One measure that I found most interesting in the last GMO letter was the PExMargin chart. It is true that people often double count thinking a high profit margin will be sustained to eternity.
My question is where exactly do you find S&P historical profit margin?
BeerBaron
-
I'm waiting for Apple to update the iPad (hopefully with a higher-rez screen), and then I'll buy one and read the PDFs on it. I don't like to print too many things, it feels wasteful.
What is more wastefull 50$ of paper per year or an iPad very 5 years?
Your perception will tell you that throwing away paper is wastefull but if you compare both option it is really not that clear.
For example an iPad:
Consumes lots of energy to be produced/designed/refined/silicon wafers/etc..., maybe 10% of a the cost... who knows
Is not recyclable, or very little of it
Consumes energy to operate
Is not from renewable materials
Generates toxic substances into landfills
Gets obsolete or outdated
Breaks down
Does not degrade when in landfills
VS Paper:
100% Recyclable
Renewable
Potentially releases toxic chemicals at pulp plants
Remember, if you want to look at a land you are better of looking from the top of a montain then the other way around :)
BeerBaron
-
[Good points John. Something I missed, I was including the overall bailout in my assessment when you say "TARP" Bronco. The real bailout was the back door bailout, AIG, Freddie, Frannie, and the alphabet soup of programs and agreements.
For those of you that did not see it... it's sickening.
http://www.khanacademy.org/video/geithner-plan-i?playlist=Geithner%20Plan
BeerBaron
-
Most of the time I print 10-k the pages are off. For example, I'll get all the text into 1 page and the next page is empty with only 2-3 lines. Which I don't understand because it seems the 10-k has page breaks. It's especially annoying when you have a balance sheet where you are missing the Shareholder equity!
Is it because 10-k are designed for legal size paper or that I need some sort of software to make the prints all fit into 1 page?
Such a waste of paper (Don't want to encourage you FBK owners too much!)
BeerBaron
-
It's simple:
-You find what a company is worth
-You haircut it by your margin of safety
-You buy if it goes down or up as long as it meets your safety margin
-You stop buying when the value at risk is high enough to prevent you from sleeping!
BeerBaron
-
Yes I think so.
-
This is somewhat related, which I found interesting and amusing. In 1987, Apple held a competition among college students on the design of the computer of the future. The winning team's design now looks a lot like an iPad.
Details:
http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2007/5/10/project-2000-apple-computer-1988.html
http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19880008883_1988008883.pdf
Funny, talk about inventions hitting the market at the right time... 20 years later!
Wasn't there also a sort of iPad apple tried to launch in the past that was a total failure?
BeerBaron
-
For me it depends I have a 3 step process:
-Gross check: 200 in 4-5 hours, returns 5% to go to medium check
-Medium check: 1 per hour, return 20% to go to final check
-Final check: 15 Hour per final company, return 30% that I buy.
My gross check, evaluates if I can understand the company, it's cash flow, balance sheet and if I can value it.
My medium check evaluates management, the reliability of cash flow, if I still understand the business. If it passes then I place a target price.
My final check happens when the stock reaches my target price. Then due diligence becomes very focused. I go trough a 80 points checklist.
So all round I spend about 80-100 hours to find 1 stock. 1 hour per day, so we are talking maybe 3 stocks per year.
BeerBaron
-
When I look at the cash in portfolio thread it seems to me the board sentiment is all over the place. Not even close to a normal bell curve. So there are no consensus on this!
BeerBaron
-
Yes, the "could" reminds me of "Global Warming" too. Did you know that Global Warming doesn't exist notwithstanding scientific claims backed by Al Gore, "I invented the internet"? The point to my "opinion" was they were LATE in their FORECAST since rain had already taken its toll in the state! I "COULD" be Warren Buffett with a higher I.Q.-even though I don't need one-and $25 Billion more cash under my name assuming $50B flows by year's end. If I were Warren Buffett, I'd pay a DIVIDEND to my limited flock as well! imo
VelueCarl, why do you post Buffett related stuff in a completely unrelated subject? Write a letter to Buffett requesting dividend it might change it's mind more then you posting on this topic.
BeerBaron
-
All asset prices are invertly correlated to interest rates (see Buffet speech in 99, California, he explains it much better then I could)
BeerBaron
-
The table above should be adjusted for the dividend.
BeerBaron
-
What's important for me is not if BV will go down because of munis, but rather does it hurt their statutory capital?
Having lower valuations has no meanings if the bonds are insured by BRK. It does not reduce the expected cash flow or increase risk. Just a change of perception.
But not being able to write business because of this lower valuation is a totally different story for FFH.
BeerBaron
-
Wasn't it Einhorn who tried taking on Frank Stronach at MI Developments and lost?
Uccmal, what's the story between MID and Einhorn?
BeerBaron
Wall street and sec
in General Discussion
Posted
At least there are investigations by the SEC. In Canada they don't even bother investigating, I can't recall the last time I red about insider trading charges in Canada.
BeerBaron