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beerbaron

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Posts posted by beerbaron

    M&A list

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Never heard of that book. There is a copy on E-Bay for 20$ for those interested. There is a 18$ shipping charge for canadians  >:( . Let me know if any of you buys it, I might buy it back from you if I can't find any versions in the local library.

     

    BeerBaron

    Documentary on Planned Obsolescence

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Watched it 2 weeks ago. Interesting how it was really planned to make object consumables.

     

    I have to say tough that the video was biased. That light bulb in the fire department produces 1% of the light of todays equivalent wattage light bulb. The lifetime of a light bulb is inversely proportional to it's light output.

     

    Also, I don't think Apple, planned to use a battery that was designed to fail after less then a year. The battery they used needed a high capacity/low volume. Again, the durability of a lithium battery is inversely proportional to it's capacity. Apple should have mad the battery replaceable tough.

     

    BeerBaron

    Bottom just fell out of japan?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Anybody looked at uranium producers? To me, the situation is similar with Deep Horizon, Uranium producers play an essential part of society.

     

    It's not like countries will decomission all their nuclear plants already working. Heck, I don't see how anybody could close down one nuclear plant. It looks like a good idea today but 1 year from now nobody will care.

     

    My guess on how it will turn is 6 months from now, the nuclear IAEA will  publish it's recommendations for safer nuclear plants. And these recommendations will be implemented in the next 3 years all around the globe.

     

    BeerBaron

    Your position in FFH

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    Bough this week at 365, will buy more at 345. I love their deflation derivative and their muni portfolio, I believe the muni portfolio is undervalued. Watsa told it himself, there is just no ASK on the BRK bonds. Their loss of 250M in Q4 just has no impact on their cash flow.

     

    If I can buy one of the best manager in the world at a discount then it's a good opportunity.

     

    BeerBaron

    Seth Klarman

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Don't you guys feel happy about doubling your money in the last 2 years?

     

     

    Lol I am just wise the original number was a bit bigger. A little x 2 is still a little lol.

    There are 2 - 3 items I want to dig into. MBIA and 2 other stocks. I just dont have time between work and Q4 updates and studying / gym / personal. Perhaps I should post a bit less.

     

    Myth, that's the advantage of part time investors. We can get in and out of the fight without actually going crazy.

     

    If you were reading 10-k all year long maybe after 1 year you would start reducing your criterias and increase your risk tolerance. But the part time investor has the piece of mind with him, if he can't find good opportunities then beat it, he will spend some time with friends and family instead. This avoid being obsessed with your relative return and also has the advantage of making him socially accepted :)

     

    BeerBaron

    Seth Klarman

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Don't you guys feel happy about doubling your money in the last 2 years?

     

    Personnally, I feel quite good about it.  And the way I see it is that I don't have to work an extra 40 hours a week to get an extra 1% but risk losing 30%.

     

    I'm spending a lot less time researching investing because there is just a lot less opportunities. Just not worth the return on time.

     

    BeerBaron

    Too much risk, lessons not learned

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Well, I don't know much about where the market will go in the next few years but I have reasons for concern when I look at the latest 13-F from Klarman, Einhorn, Watsa and Buffett almost no shares have been bough by the 4.

     

    As for risk, we are not out of the woods yet. Invest with caution.

     

    BeerBaron

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