beerbaron

I refinanced last week. 3.89% for 5Y, Canada is so expensive compared with US rates >:( I almost tough of getting a US loan and hedging the currency, I think it would come cheaper then using a Canadian bank. BeerBaron

Over here in Quebec you can wait 12 hours in the emergency rooms. Some claim that it's because it's free and people with cold go to the doctor. Which is completely true, some proponents have been claiming to put a small fee on every doctor's visit to deter people from abusing it. I kinda agree with it but if you think about it waiting 12 hours will also deter me from abusing the free healthcare :) BeerBaron

Actually, some would argue that a private healthcare system is malfunctionning because of the market forces. In a private market, the buyer of insurance has an informational advantage to the seller. Which means that the buyers that thinks he is sick will get insurance while the others will not, therefore only the most expensive customers would get insured. Raising the cost of insurance for the non sick people and deferring them of buying a policy and so on... Empirical data seems to prove quite well this theory as the USA is the only country with a private system and it's the most expensive. Sometimes the market is not adequate. We need to avoid the man with the hammer syndrome. BeerBaron

Yes but your boose is so expensive in Sweeden.. how can BeerBaron ever visit such a place.. BeerBaron

This is a policy that will appear in page 25 of newspapers. Obama needs employments, that's the only number that matters for the next election. Trillion deficits, trillions of money printing, nobody cares except the 1% that has money. When your unemployed all you ask is to fix it, not how you fix it... BeerBaron

Told you Obama did not have a lot of Aces left and would use them all before elections! BeerBaron

Hi guys, I wanted to know how you guys tackle Rate of returns between different companies in the same field. For example, the Modigliani–Miller theorem states that two companies with different capital structures should trade at the same level. Are you guys using ROA instead of ROE? Or are you factoring the leverage in another variable? BeerBaron

Costco's Christmass stuff is already in their warehouses! My girlfirend went nuts... Beerbaron

Funny, I was actually reading the Dundee annual report when I saw the quote. Dundee semms like one of the only few financial adequately priced in Canada. Still trying to put a value on the different businesses. BeerBaron

It's a bet on the turnaroud with the CEO being in front. The question is how much do you trust the CEO... I seem to remember a start CEO at Sears that seems to struggle. BeerBaron

Railload http://www.aar.org/NewsAndEvents/~/media/aar/railtimeindicators/2011-08-rti.ashx Unemployment. And the loan portfolio size of big banks. (Growing or Shrinking) At this point I believe we are flat in all 3 YOY, so I would not put too much premium on growth right now. BeerBaron

At around 47 minutes he talks about Merchant Banking companies investing in resources... I guess he's referring to Altius. BeerBaron

They are 40 years late to the party following China's example. They could have followed Singapore example from the 70s and be where China is today. BeerBaron

It got me thinking, what's the expected life of a brand in the fashion industry? I can't seem to find a lot of trademark that were really dominant for a long time (40+ years). Even stores seem to have a finite life expectancy... BeerBaron

Chou Funds cough my eye with The Gap. And I'm currently browsing the 10-k and I'm trying to understand the dynamics behind fashion stores (Aeropostale is attractive too!). Maybe some people have already sent some time thinking about this industry so it would be helpful. What does a company have to do to move a dominant player? -Obtain prime real estate locations -Effective and focused advertising -Create store environment that welcomes the target group -Pricing in line with the target group's budget -Superior sales force -Buyers that understand their market AND the trends -Good inventory management Now that's all the main points I can think of. But there is certainly more. Also from my point of view all the points above except the real estate cannot be considered as a durable competitive advantage. So if most of those points cannot be considered as a durable advantage how can you evaluate them? How can something as weak as good advertising campaign become a great long term asset? BeerBaron

It seems seems to make sense. Take the following scenario HPQ sell Tablet to BBY, BBY sell tablet to consumer. Before liquidation price is 500$ so what was the cost of those tablets? BBY gross margin = 33% HPQ gross margin = 30% 500$/(1.33*1.3)=289$ which is the cost HPQ would buy the tablets from their contract manufacturers. Less S&H 2$ = 287$, assembly 25$ = 262$. So 262$ is about the parts costs. Scenario 1: Liquidate tablet at 100$ HPQ Sell price to BBY: 75$ Losses = 289-75 = 214$ Scenario 2: Throw away all parts Losses = 262$ Scenario 1 makes more sense. BeerBaron

Vinod, how exactly can you evaluate if a currency is overvalued or not? BeerBaron

Return optimization is theorically good but you need to make assumptions of the payout ratio of the bet. This proves much more complicated then evaluating the price of the business. I often used 50/50 in the past, which is a bit stupid but you need to start somewhere... A good way to solve the problem would be to have a feedback that corrects your assumptions, but that feedback would become valid after a lot of data points have been made. It could take 20 years before you truly know that when you tough you had 10% chance it really met you had 5%. BeerBaron

Maybe it is Harris Kupperman running the fund. I would say the "Kuppy" premium is built into the stock price. You can get Dalton at Altius 20% growth for the last 11 years below NAV. You can get Watsa at FFH at BV. You can get Buffett at 1.3BV ... a lot less if you put FCF metrics on the operating businesses. In order to grow the capital from 4M to the current market cap you would need a 13 bagger!!! There is something we are missing here... BeerBaron

That is a crazy valuation why in hell would I pay 13xNAV for a fund that just started? Yes Mongolia is prone for good growth but that does not justify that the hard work these guys have put is worth 60M$. BeerBaron

I am currently in the process of refinancing my house and a large chunk of money is going to get into my bank account. If I invest this chunk of money in say bonds, can I deduct the interests I pay on the mortgage from the bond income? BeerBaron

Didn't Kuppy write an article about Mongolia? What caught my eye was the 15% interest rate offered in their banks. BeerBaron

The best deals I ever made were the ones I passed... BeerBaron

So how does one seek for excess capital? Of course you could use the statuatory ratio as a metric but it's kinda useless if the company is unreserved. BeerBaron

When is FFH trial exactly? Anybody going to listen to the pleas? BeerBaron