tnathan

I am going to make Skechers a core 5% position over the next few weeks / months

dipped toes into SPSC. I think the runway is decently long and it's not too expensive for what its growing at

Bought SKX … weakness in China taking stock lower. I love the story though over next 5-10 years. And it’s trading cheaply for the growth. They have surprising strength in India…

Bought some more NU - this is a special company

Thank you!

Wanted to follow up here -- does anyone have any opinions on any of the teams at Artisan Partners (Milwaukee based) and the work they do / reputation? I'm not intentionally going down this path, but this opp kind of landed in my lap so might as well see it through.

Thinking about selling HIFS tomorrow -- not sure why that would be up so much but ill take it

Not the ideal ending outcome for shareholders - bought at book but if you've been buying more on dips its worked out ok

Yes - I was looking at banks that trade at fair or depressed multiples of book value that have a clear path to growing book value if rates come down. I own FFBB, unib, and hifs. I think all 3 have good management teams

Agreed but barring a forced breakup of the companies I think the risks are limited. Everyone hates healthcare but we don't actually have the political will to change how its working in substantial ways

I've decided to make a collection of the non Medicaid health insurers 15-20% of my portfolio. Major risk of (a) change in government policy, (b) utilization / loss rates being materially higher than estimates over more than a few years (c) some other major competitive change in the value chain I think are extremely low - with (a) being far lower now than maybe a few years ago with both parties showing no interest in changing the status quo. I think buying as a basket gets you a pretty easy 10%+ per year especially with a few of the MA players (CVS, Humana) now trading at value prices. If multiples ever go up from ~10-12 EV/EBITDA that's a kicker

Does anyone have thoughts on TWFG? They IPO'ed in July here is the s-1 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007596/000162828024029560/twfginc-sx1.htm

Per the Fed, terminal rates are not going to be as low as they were previously, but I still think HIFS grows book value ~10-15% per year and will trade up to 1.5x+ of TBV/share as rates fall so there's still plenty of room to run. When the mortgage business picks back up UNIB will truly be a monster their CEO is really sharp

Biggest 2 purchases for me were a couple banks - HIFS and UNIB. Both are extremely well positioned as rates are cut further

Thanks for the input everyone! I think I understand. Completely get that it is just a useful high level exercise to show how ROIC and growth interplay with each other but obviously these growth rates in perpetuity don't reflect the real world