tnathan

Bought some more NU - this is a special company

Look we all know that Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme until it creates real utility. Crypto / blockchain does have a chance of creating tons of utility at some point. We also know that asset prices move up when demand is more than supply. I don't think we need to make this that much more complicated. If enough people want to own crypto and it keeps making ATHs after multiple cycles, there's a greater and greater chance it is here to stay. There's going to be tons of demand for people / governments to have just a few % of their reserves in this, and that will push BTC price higher. End of story stop arguing about this stuff its dumb

I'll grant you the housing piece, which I do think is a major issue for young people, myself included. But to act like this economy is somehow much different than the Trump economy is just not factually correct. Near record unemployment, VC funding in not doing well partially as a reaction to the excesses of 2021, which cannot be blamed on Biden. The U.S. dealt better with inflation than nearly every major country in the world. Agree the deficit is a problem, but it's not like Trump is a better option for any of these problems. He essentially has 2 policies (1) Deport all the illegal immigrants and (2) Tariff everything. On (1) I am actually not that far left and agree we need a stricter process for people to enter the country legally, and should give preference to highly skilled workers. But how can someone look at the current situation and think it is taking away jobs from American citizens who want these positions? Look at unemployment... On (2) This is one of the most economic illiterate policies ive seen floated in recent memory. It's one thing to say to China they need to play the game by the same economic rules as everyone else, but to think that with global tariffs all of the manufacturing that was lost decades ago is coming back is ludicrous. If the tariffs become high enough to the point where it would be economically feasible for lots of jobs to come back home, it would be highly inflationary and doesn't even make sense in a full employment world. I understand your point of view, but you're still making leaps based on anecdotes and vibes and others are providing statements that are close to factual. Watch any collection of interviews with voters on both sides of these issues and you'll see the voting populace doesn't fully understand these issues and are VERY swayed by what they are told is happening by various media sources. This applies not just to Fox but also CNN, etc.

I would also point to that the left clearly has gone further left on social issues and that makes a lot of people uncomfortable, across demographics. If they want to win elections that have to tone that down -- for better or worse

I'm very open to hearing other better interpretations -- do you have specific data that points to what we've said clearly not being true? By all accounts the data is on one side of the argument, and perception is on the other side.

Totally agree -- I think perception plays such a big role in this, and perception does not match reality. When you get your news from sources that have a vested interest in telling you that you're worse off and that you should blame a lot of this on people who don't have the same skin color / are from the deep state / from a different country as you, it breads crazy amounts of resentment and that is simply misplaced. Makes me incredibly sad and I've been around long enough to know that the economic literacy in this country is so bad that people likely can't reason through things themselves and just believe whatever Fox BS propoganda they are seeing.

Thank you!

Wanted to follow up here -- does anyone have any opinions on any of the teams at Artisan Partners (Milwaukee based) and the work they do / reputation? I'm not intentionally going down this path, but this opp kind of landed in my lap so might as well see it through.

Thinking about selling HIFS tomorrow -- not sure why that would be up so much but ill take it

Not the ideal ending outcome for shareholders - bought at book but if you've been buying more on dips its worked out ok

Yes - I was looking at banks that trade at fair or depressed multiples of book value that have a clear path to growing book value if rates come down. I own FFBB, unib, and hifs. I think all 3 have good management teams

Agreed but barring a forced breakup of the companies I think the risks are limited. Everyone hates healthcare but we don't actually have the political will to change how its working in substantial ways

I've decided to make a collection of the non Medicaid health insurers 15-20% of my portfolio. Major risk of (a) change in government policy, (b) utilization / loss rates being materially higher than estimates over more than a few years (c) some other major competitive change in the value chain I think are extremely low - with (a) being far lower now than maybe a few years ago with both parties showing no interest in changing the status quo. I think buying as a basket gets you a pretty easy 10%+ per year especially with a few of the MA players (CVS, Humana) now trading at value prices. If multiples ever go up from ~10-12 EV/EBITDA that's a kicker

Does anyone have thoughts on TWFG? They IPO'ed in July here is the s-1 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007596/000162828024029560/twfginc-sx1.htm

Per the Fed, terminal rates are not going to be as low as they were previously, but I still think HIFS grows book value ~10-15% per year and will trade up to 1.5x+ of TBV/share as rates fall so there's still plenty of room to run. When the mortgage business picks back up UNIB will truly be a monster their CEO is really sharp