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"The whole basis of this thread is flawed. You are supposing that there will be long term winners in this space to brag about." Should I reply to you by saying that you are ignorant or just like the responses I received in the crypto thread? Unless you have missed it, there has been a huge surge in shares of pot producers in Canada. So some people have made tremendous amounts of money. All based on what sales should look like down the road. And no, I have never supposed that there would be some long term winners. Cardboard

Some of you may be familiar with what has happened to natural gas prices in Canada: http://www.gasalberta.com/gas-market/market-prices?p=pricing-market.htm If you look at the bottom chart, we have had days in April and May where natural gas delivered to the AECO hub was sold for $0! And the effect has been felt in the long term prices as well. As a result, stock prices of Canadian natural gas producers have been decimated. The key reason is continued growth in the Montney which has some of the most effective wells in the world to develop natural gas while shipment capacity has not kept up. And one of the reason why these wells are so attractive is that they also produce condensate which is in high demand in Canada by oil sands producers to dilute and ship their bitumen into pipelines. It sells for more than light oil and right now is $6 CAD above Edmonton light: https://www.psac.ca/business/gmpfirstenergy/ Some producers including Peyto have announced cuts to their 2018 capex which should reduce the current glut. We also have inventories at the bottom end of the 5 year average which will have to be replenished and Alberta will start to consume a fair amount of its own gas as coal power plants are switching permanently to natural gas. And while the LNG situation looked dire on the West Coast with many players having abandonned, we now have the NDP looking to forge alliances in Asia to bring them back on??? http://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/lngs-unlikely-saviour-b-c-s-ndp-premier-turns-cheerleader-in-asia-trip Anyway, while it won`t be resolved overnight and that some discount to Henry Hub will likely remain, I think that there is a solid opportunity forming up here. All players have been sold very hard so you are able to pick and choose whomever at very low prices. Cardboard

It is a new era. ;) People are simply extrapolating what revenues/profits should look like after July 1, 2018, assumed some additional growth and are paying full price today for said future. No different than trying to extrapolate how many eye balls would yield in terms of advertising revenue or sales back in 1999 and paying the price for all kind of firms promising just that. Now consider the following or what El-Erian said in 2008 in different words: people were wondering if the Big Mac would be served at the next counter at the drive-thru after having paid at the first counter? We go from one extreme to the other on the trust scale in just 8 to 10 years. People never learn. Cardboard

"...there are no instruments here yet that I know of...anyone have ideas?" You can short pot stocks and also can buy puts on them but, both alternatives are pricey! With bitcoin futures live, puts/calls cannot be far behind. However, also expect implied volatility to be out of this world rendering them near useless. Bear spreads is likely the only way as mentioned by Bizaro86 however, you need to have a brokerage account properly setup because if not, the sale of an option will consume margin even if offset by the other one. Cardboard

Bri-Chem. Sells for $0.65 and net-net is $0.63. However, it is profitable unlike biotechs and other junk companies selling for much less than net-net. It has been stuck at this price for a while despite fixing their debt and solid prospects, due to a large seller from Merrill Lynch who has been unloading for a few months now. Cardboard

No need to build more pipelines to ship the nat gas out of the Montney. No need anymore for ugly LNG plants on the West Coast to deliver a much cleaner transition fuel to Asia. Simply burn it in Alberta to solve useless calculations on a computer. https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aIBR-2559850&symbol=IBR&region=C Cardboard

"It was certainly a penalty, but it looks to me like a random mistake in a fast-moving game..." You did not see the Jags guys congratulating the one who did it with high fives and the like? There was no remorse. It is only the coach at the half that said the penalty was deserved. A 15 yards penalty is nothing to take out one of the key guys from the other team. And nowadays with the concussion procedure, players know that a shot to the head will lead to the player leaving the game at least temporarily. And by the way, the Pats are not my team but, I admire how they play. How they create a true team spirit with discipline and each player having a role to win. Cardboard

"Look, you don't have to be a fan but continuing to share your opinion on something you very obviously do not understand (or wish to understand) derails a legitimate thread." You are right, it would be a shame to derail a thread by some who have outsmarted Buffett, Munger, Dimon, Shiller and so many others... LOL! So we will let you live your mania. Let you enjoy this Libertarian euphoria over magnetic 0´s and 1's sitting on some server. Cardboard

Awesome game! Never ever give up! And thanks for sending home kneelers and those who took a really cheap shot at Gronk. Cardboard

This is probably the most welcome, dumbest corporate decision in history. A 2nd corporate HQ... Really? I know plenty of companies who have multiple research centers but, could you please name one U.S. company that has two HQ in the U.S.? Cardboard

"It says that he is earning between $5.50 and $6.00 per day right now (it changes from second to second). Yes I know they were hacked a month ago, but I figure if you cash out once in a while there will never be much in there to loose." You cash out hmmm? Sounds like a heck of a store of value. As soon as you make a few dollars, you want to leave asap because you are afraid of hacks. Then back to good old fiat despite its depreciating value. I can only imagine what will happen to crypto values in the next crash when people rush to get their hands on liquid. They were selling their gold in the Great Recession to access liquidity... Cardboard

Well Bizaro86, at least you are using logic in what you are doing, as you always do, so feel no shame with your returns. Regarding the "large caps" pot stocks such as ACB and WEED, I have noticed a pretty large spread between volatility on calls and puts. The puts appear to be in very large demand. I actually thought of buying some puts since the ascent in Nov-Dec is out of this world and seems to have run out of steam. However, at 100 to 150% volatility I decided to pass... So anyone "investing" in these things at 50 to 100 times revenues (LOL!) should buy a call and sell a put instead of owning the stock because you are being paid to do it. Cardboard

That is right, where are the people who always claim and brag after the fact that they made a ton of money from some speculative investments? I personally bought a tiny bit of Namaste and saw an astronomical return but, not enough to move the needle. I just don't have your balls... Come on don't be shy! We keep hearing from the crypto lovers and how their speculation made them rich because they rightly anticipated that 2017 would be THE YEAR that people would equate it to gold and its $7 trillion value. I want that crystal ball! Prior to that it was the Valeant lovers where the momentum unfortunately eventually disappeared along with the profits... What a value investment forum this is!!! Lot's of diversity! Actually, lots of people who stopped using their calculator and joined the Pavlov's dogs on Wall Street. Cardboard

Better than gold? 14 days to clear payments from one of the biggest proponents... I wish I had the "crying while laughing out loud emoticon"!!! http://www.cnbc.com/id/104939604 Cardboard

http://www.kitco.com/news/2018-01-10/Warren-Buffett-Bitcoin-Craze-Will-End-Badly.html Cardboard

"Yes gold isn't going anywhere, but if the US government gets tyrannical to the point where it shuts down the internet I suspect I'll have larger problems than my Bitcoin holdings." This gets to my point: there is no hunt right now for a store of value. The hunt right now is related to greed, the fear to miss out on something or after almost 8 years into a major bull market. Imagine this whole conversation in 2008-2009 during the major downturn. Even then the supposedly great store of value or gold was down quite a bit. Everything was thrown away. Raising cash was all that mattered. I am not saying that Rkbabang is not onto something and that crypto is worthless. However, I am quite skeptical about the store of value argument especially after the kind of frenzy that we have seen. Cardboard

"My problem with this is that "something going up 20x" doesn't account for fundamentals. Many value investors simply say its overvalued because of recent price action. Aren't we supposed to largely ignore past price movements in value investing and instead focus on fundamentals (% of gold market cap, % of world money supply, etc)? I think what is really happening here is that crypto in general eliminates the IPO phase of investments. In its first 9 years as a company, Google went from $0 to $100B+, but people were less likely to call it a bubble because most of the price rise (in % terms ) was pre-IPO. The IPO market cap was around $20B, but if you chart gains in the pre IPO price of google shares they'd look almost exactly like crypto prices. Its largely optics imo. Not saying crypto is a great investment or that it can't fall severly from here, but I don't see a lot of fundamental analysis from value investors going on in regards to crypto (both on the bullish and bearish side)." A value investor will accept that something goes up 20 times in one year if there was large undervaluation and/or something fundamental that has changed to justify this 20 times. However, I will submit that in my 20+ years of investing that this is very rare occurence and much more likely to happen to obscure, small market cap securities vs billion $ assets. So you should ask yourself, what has changed to cryptos in the span of 12 months to justify such move? Moreover, the main thesis that I have heard on this board is that Bitcoin should be valued at $7 trillion mostly because gold has such valuation. Is this fundamental analysis? Cardboard

"I've never physically owned gold as an investment, but I have in the past owned SGOL." Do yourself an immense favour: go buy right now an ounce of gold and bring it back home. Johnson Matthey is a highly reputable refiner and these are accepted/recognized anywhere. This will cost you near nothing as these have very little commission to buy but, the process could show you what I mean. Cardboard

The latest e-mails from Rkbabang should demonstrate clearly why this cannot replace gold. At least not for now. The complexity, relying on third parties is way too high. Moreover, I just entered this on my PC to see what this market is doing right now: https://www.coindesk.com/price/ and the screen is locked. How could one of the largest exchanges be experiencing this on a regular basis and attract more users/demand and a sense of security? Finally, when something goes up 20 times in any given year, it should give a pause to most rational players. That is at least what I would expect from participants on a website who know one thing or two about value investing. This should also be especially true, when this new "hunt" for a supposedly store of value occurs during a raging bull market in paper assets. Cardboard

Could selling short term, slightly out of the money covered call be an option? It would generate income which could be seen as an offset to the eventual taxes on capital gains. And if the stock rallies above the strike price and the stock is called away, this gain on the rally could also be considered as an offset? Since I don't sense an urgency to sell and little upward potential maybe this could work? Cardboard

Sold all my holdings and bought Bitcoins only. This is a guaranteed 20 baggers as soon as the Goldbugs realize that this is better than their gold or the ancient metals of Kings which accumulated only $7 trillion of value out of $296 trillion of world wealth after 4,000 years. Took them way too long to realize that this was a store of value. Poor fools! Oh yeah, and the other "fake" cryptos not controlled by the 21 million max allowance go to zero too. Cardboard

"Please enlighten us on the gold market, its properties, its owners, and why your insights demonstrate that bitcoin has <=5% chance of obtaining a $7tn value (gold)" I don't have more time to waste with you as I already explained why your probabilities are way off but, you are too stubborn and greedy to understand. Cardboard

+1 Al And for those who keep making these silly comparisons to owning gold, then I say with full knowledge of the gold market that you have no clue on gold, its properties, owners, etc. I will also bet that very few to none of you have ever held physical gold as a store of value. Cardboard

You should check your math: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/02/bitcoin-dominance-of-cryptocurrency-market-lowest-level-ever.html Emily brought a very good point and crypto's as a whole are now valued at around $640 billion with Bitcoins accounting for 36% per this article. So your odds have dropped to 9%. If not, why would you assume that all other crypto's will disappear? This competition among crypto's is not conducive to confidence as dilution becomes real or getting right to the point that Charlie Munger has made. Moreover, if there is only $7 trillion "hidden" in gold today, then why should it jump to $14 as an alternative has emerged? If this is a so good alternative to gold, then many will switch. There are only so many people and money who don't trust the system. And $7 trilion is an overstated amount as around 18% of gold is held by central banks. Then add to this all the gold held by Indians who see gold as a cultural asset, a family treasure. Do you think this is all switching to crypto? Finally, have a look at hedge funds. Once authorities realized that mom and pop could get hurt, they got regulated and truly only the rich can now get their hands on them. That is another risk. Even gold was confiscated by Roosevelt in the 30's. No asset is totally "safe" from governments. Remember 2003? What happens to confidence when electricity goes out? Even gold dropped in 2008 with the crash... Cardboard

How could one possibly compare gold with crypto is beyond me? There is simply no comparison in terms of confidentiality, liquidity, ease to buy and sell, and on and on. Maybe you made lots of money, maybe it will continue but, it isn't comparable at all. Cardboard