kh812000

This is the first time we’ve had an administration pretty much say with a straight face that the objectives are going to cause short term pain. To me this is as transparent as you can you get.

I think you are looking at this with the wrong lens. The U.S. national debt is currently $37 trillion (122% of GDP), and it’s growing at a rate of $1 trillion every 100 days. This translates to $3.65 trillion/yr of additional debt and soon it will be balloon to such a huge number that its unfixable outside of bankruptcy/dollar devaluation.... So what is needed to fix the problem? 1. Need interest rates to come down (Trump focus is the 10 yr), so the US can roll the 7TR+ of Treasury bills at 4.4% into long term bonds at much lower interest rates... This can save at least 100-200B/yr on interest payments by do so. Possibly bring down our run away 1.2TR+ and growing of interest payments/yr to a flat 800-900B/yr.... Easiest way to do this is to bring the US into a slowdown/recession short term. 2 Cut government spending/waste. Musk's goal is 1 TR of budget cuts. Current Government spending is 7 TR and a 2 TR deficit/yr which is tacked on to the US debt load. If Trump wants to balance the budget, assuming Musk is successful, he needs to cut 1 TR out of the budget ex Medicaid/SS/Defense by privatization/shutting departments/etc... Doable? Unclear... 3. Tariffs. Yes its short term inflationary but a 1x bump. Some have calculated that 32% of US spending is from goods vs 68% services, and of that 20% is imported which implies 6.4% of total US spend. Supposedly, the long term goal is tariff revenue of 2.5 Tr after 10 years which implies 8-10% tariff on every import. If successful, he can cut the IRS revenue (5TR/yr currently) by 50%, eg tax rates go down 50% across the board! I think this is the long term goal... 4. Long term budget fix needs to be a reform of 4 TR of the yearly budget from Medicaid/Care, SS, defense... But I'd think that's for the next administration... Clearly, Trump has no choice but to tackle this problem now or the US is doomed... The US debt clock shows the severity of this problem. U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time

New spin-off SNDK. 0.6X BOOK. Significant discount versus other memory players and its JV partner Kioxia. Just raised prices of its offerings into a flash memory recovery...

20% PAYO 20% LSXMK 15% EXPE 15% ACLS 10% META 10% NSIT 10% BRK.B

$SPHR and $PAYO

Eisman basically said the financial sector is uninvestible. More regulation is coming even excluding any other financial black swans out there. These regulations will clamp down on ALL banks, meaning even the "too big to fail" will suffer.... I'm with him 100%

With the FED/FDIC effectively backstopping unlimited deposit amounts, it effectively negates any advantage of balance sheet size. So to me its unclear big banks are the winners as now ANY bank deposit at ANY bank is "safe"...

AEHR. Undiscovered play on SiC. Earnings growing 70%+ trading at PE of 25x.

https://techtieguy.com/mark-zuckerberg-braces-meta-staff-for-intense-interval/ Speaking of coasting.... Zuck in my META feed always hard at work...

More Semiconductors. ON, AEHR, MU

Good time to buy some BYD.

EQIX trades at 40x FFO DLR trades at 26x FFO AMT trades at 27X FFO With COR (~30xFFO) and CONE (23x FFO) recent takeouts. So range of these assets are low 20s for low quality and mid/high 30s for high quality.... So generally can see where the true mkt values are. SWCH is a quality asset its more akin to EQIX or COR like mults.... However, most people dont realize it yet, hence the discount. But SWCH is now also on the radar as a next takeout....

SWCH. Amazing how under the radar this co is. Just had analyst day yesterday. Guides double digit revenue growth for next 10 years. Guides best in class EBITDA margin 55% for mature properties In the catbird seat for migration of workloads off enterprise into cloud / tier 4 colocation. REIT conversion on track for January 2023. Just a solid solid co that noone talks about.

BHE must be loving this Biden Infrastructure proposal. This new Grid Deployment Authority is exactly what BHE Infrastructure CEO Chris Brown was asking for (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/more-than-pipe-dream-how-we-can-better-deploy-electron-chris-brown). BHE has physical locations which are THE best locations for wind & solar. THE key bottleneck was building transmission to move cheap energy sources to population centers. With a Federal Grid Deployment authority permitting now can be like gas pipeline permits which takes 1.5 yrs for permit compared to 10 years for transmission permitting.... Surprised BRK is down on this. Suggests none is aware of the big implications....

Volume in Brk/A is certainly quite active recently....hmm. Maybe Buffett finally got religion on buybacks of his stock or does he know something??