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n.r98

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  1. Lottery posn in NEON... alr up >10%... wish i made it bigger hahahah but actually, v interesting patent case behind fwiw
  2. i bought chunks and chunks of TSM (now my largest position, followed by TH and CLMT) during the mkt meltdown period a few weeks back and w/o traditional DD like how i would for other stonks. I listened to buffett's opinion on it and it sounds like a comfort issue - as charlie said "warren ought to be comfortable.." Buffy loved TSM's biz (margins are rarified and only a few large businesses globally can sport such margins) and multiple has never been demanding perhaps due to high CAPEX req and geographics (which is Buffy's point of concern).. but hey, I think he wouldnt mind owning it if he were just uncle warren to his nephews/niece and not to the whole world. Every article i read about TSMC's problems seem to ironically, fortify their moat- e.g. labor shortages? yeah cool, how then do competitors get labor if TSMC can't themselves? So yeah, as one earlier poster said, if not now then when? Gutted i didnt pick this when Buffy was selling tbh. hope this ages well.
  3. There goes starbucks shooting. When Elliot takes a posn, take notice!
  4. I've read a huge number of investing books and don't actually think they've been really helpful overall; actually been confusing somewhat but if you're not confused then are you even trying... Also, a lot of investment folks tend to be incredible writers - it's like a cult in the investing world - to pick stonks like a champ and write prose like Dickens so it's easy to get wrapped up in all sorts of weird philosophical ideas and misapply them. The materials that have strong shelf life are: 1. IMO Snowball + Making of American Capitalist (2 Buffett bios) - not really teaching you about investing but you get a feel on how someone lives and breathes compounding.. 2. Some J Greenblatt stuffs - u can be a stock mkt genius + maybe his lecture notes -> shows you how simple analysis work can be. 3. Trading books - love these actually - market wizards etc.
  5. Like ULTA here and building a posn. Cheaper than EL on valuation and higher margin as well. Women wanna be pretty all the time n recessions don't alter that (pull the drawers at the makeup table, check the eyelash receipts)!! ULTA also sports wide range of brands so not worried about fickleness within space. Net cash b/s, buying back shares, all for ~10x EBITDA. Also anecdotally, Ulta is superior (price to value) to Sephoraaa but please check with your missus/gfs on this,
  6. Made a few weird trades lasst night with my itchy fingers... bought more SE and IGIC, initated ULTA and TSM
  7. Strong view merger closes so sold my 25 Jan JBLU calls and closed out my SAVE option positions for March and added more to SAVE (stock as well to avoid option risk of delay or recuts) just like sleepydrag. Fings crossed
  8. Not to throw in another useless thread into the sea of COBF topics but I cant help but notice that Elliot's activisms have worked out incredibly well. I mean for one, $CRM has performed absolutely well since the whole basic cost cutting thesis and PINS hasnt done too bad since Elliot refreshed the board. Ofc, there are factors at work here and CRM is defo part of the tech rally. But it's not only confined to tech. Look at NRG energy - been on an absolute tear since the Elliot letter in June - and CCI has rocketed off the bottom (this is still fresh). PSX is also now embroiled with Elliot. Was thinking maybe we should have a discussion on Elliot's activist stonks - because this sure as hell seems like a profitable pond to fish in of late.
  9. Bought some GLOP and TBPH. TBPH has some activists involved; cash, CVRs and stake in key drug Yupelri more than covers the stock price. New drug Ampre now in phase 3 could easily be worth >$5/share even on pretty conservative assumptions. Business is trimming down staff, shutting majority of their research programs and returning capital to shareholders with a planned 170m to be returned by end of this year which should add about 10% on top of the total value of the firm. Irenic capital writing that letter was probably trying to highlight where Wally is rather than admonish management; don't see why some larger firm doesn't offer a quick premium to the extant stock price and take the remaining upside for free.
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