Dinar
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Posts posted by Dinar
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6 minutes ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:
Pardon my unparliamentary language, but what the absolute fuckery is this?
https://reason.com/2024/06/15/house-passes-bill-to-automatically-register-young-men-for-the-draft/
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BILLS-118hr8070rh/pdf/BILLS-118hr8070rh.pdf
So men ages 18-26 are automatically registered for duty? Notice the language, it says residents not citizens, so your immigrant status doesn't matter. It is very clear that the Gov wants to use immigrants as cannon fodder.
It has been the law of the land in the US for decades that you had to register for selective service = the draft when you turned 18. I did it 30 years ago and I was not a citizen at the time.
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1 hour ago, Luca said:
He should have exited when he more than doubled again. Greed...
700m or whatever close to 1b is enough for me to retire. Should even be enough for @Dinar
Yeah, knowing when to stop is important - just saw a film about Napoleon. 700MM USD would be enough for me, that way I can fly by private jet and not stand in line for 50 minutes because the airline has delayed boarding. Where in Germany are you Luca? I am visiting one of your neighbors. I am frankly shocked that in a high end restaurant in a European capital, 90% of the clients were foreigners (Chinese, Russian speakers, Americans and even a French couple - why would French people go to a good restaurant outside of France is a mystery to me, the value proposition is not there for them.) This is a wealthy country.
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My two biggest regrets are starting to have kids too late (39 for number one and 44 for number 3), and I always wanted four. I also feel too old sometimes to play soccer against my son and his friends, would not have been a problem ten years ago. The second regret is abdicating my exercise regimen a decade ago, and letting weight balloon. Now it is a huge fight to stay at same level and start loosing it.
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25 minutes ago, StubbleJumper said:
Ouch. Is the market finally turning?
We are three days into the 2024 hurricane season, which the experts say will have a larger number of named storms and perhaps stronger than usual storms.
Not sure that I like the sound of all of this.
SJ
You are right, but the question is what is priced in? One can plausibly argue that Fairfax will earn its market cap over the next five to six years, so it seems to me that the market is pricing in some softness in the reinsurance space.
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According to Heard on the Street column in the WSJ, reinsurance pricing is down 5% on same risk basis.
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6% from a bond is essentially zero return after tax and inflation. So while TIPS at 2.5% are attractive in a retirement account, they are not attractive to a tax paying individual
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You don't want family control. You want between 15-30% insider ownership - big enough to care, but not a blocking position. For every Arnault pere, Prem, Vincent Bollore, you get Sulzberger (NYT), Tim O'shaughnessy and Don Graham (GHC), MNPP & the Marx family.
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8 hours ago, Luca said:
That nobody in europe or the west even questions 1% of motives of our countries and that our countries also couldnt be transparent is quite shocking, everybody takes what our governments say for 100% face value and Putin is just Darth Vader. Simple story...
Luca, no normal human being would voluntarily join the KGB. This is the organization that murdered tens of millions of Soviet citizens. So when Putin came to power in 1998, I had no illusions. Darth Vader is an angel compared to someone who would voluntarily join an organization that committed mass murder for decades on a scale that would make Hitler seem an amateur.
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1 hour ago, Haryana said:
Western folks might be unaware that both Vivanta and Ginger are part of the TATA group. Tata's IHCL is India’s largest hospitality company including the iconic Taj brand.
https://www.ihcltata.com/press-room/taj-ranked-as-India-strongest-brand-brand-for-third-time/
Media screams crony on Ambani and Adani because they are from the state of Modi but they never talk much about Tata.
The media will talk about Indian economy being run by state expenditure but the Indian government is divesting and selling business assets to private enterprise. They recently sold Air India to Tata.
Connecting the dots, Tata's Air India had recently announced developing a connecting hub at Fairfax's Bengaluru Airport.
https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/airports-networks/air-india-develop-connecting-hub-bengaluru
Tata is the largest conglomerate of India.
TCS New York City Marathon has been sponsored by Tata's TCS since 2014.
Parsees are incredible, imagine what Iran would have been had stayed Zoroastrian.
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28 minutes ago, Santayana said:
That is not true. You can trade long puts/calls, sell covered calls, and sell cash secured puts without having a margin account.
It must depend on the broker, or rules have changed. 15 years ago when I opened a couple of brokerage accounts, I needed to have a margin account in order to trade options, although I did spreads so may be that was the reason.
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6 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:
When you sign up for margin, there is a line that gives broker the permission. You are correct that they don't have to inform you when they lend out your shares.
@Mephistopheles if you want to avoid this, you need cash only account where you don't sign up for security lending.
You need a margin account if you want to trade options.
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5 minutes ago, Mephistopheles said:
Yea, IBKR customer service fails yet again....so back to square one. These shares do not show up as lent securities in my activity statement. Why am I getting payment in lieu?
If at the day before ex-dividend the shares were lent out (either via a stock lending program or because you have a margin account) then this would happen. Some brokers will lend out your shares without your permission even if you do not have margin debt simply because you have a margin account.
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I do not think that this is correct. Payment in lieu of dividends is when your shares are lent out. This is regardless of whether you are using margin or not. I used margin last year and none of my dividend income was payment in lieu of dividends.
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7 minutes ago, LC said:
Tender offer for a huge chunk of the outstanding - and the shares already trade above the tender price. Interesting situation. Do you have a long term thesis or is this a trade?
It is a long-term investment. I have followed the company for a couple of years, but I was not 100% sure that the operating margin improvement was sustainable. Given the size of the tender offer and the fact that the management that owns 12% is not tendering, I figure that not only profitability is sustainable, but that there is either a massive profitability improvement coming down the pike or there is another ace up management's sleeve. Had they bought out all of the shares at $925 per share that they wanted, the stock would have been trading at 9x my 2025 EPS.
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COKE - the bottler
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3 hours ago, longterminvestor said:
Random thoughts:
- If you want to compare to Mr. Buffett (which it is a mistake) but if you want to, think about this. In 2000, Berkshire's "equity portfolio" was $37B total. $28B of the $37B (75%) were in 5 businesses: Amex, Coca Cola, Gillette, Washington Post, & Wells. Need to further unpack that $28B because it basically was permanently allocated - Amex/Cocoa Cola (still owned and untouched) makes up $20B of the $28B, Gillette turned into P&G which was turned into a tax free exchange for Duracell, Washington Post turned into cash, shares of Berkshire, and a TV station (tax efficient), Wells at $3B was added/trimmed and finally sold with sizable gain in 2022 - if not for a little scandal, arguably, he would still be holding today. That leaves $9B (25%) to allocate in 2000. Lets just say that again, $9B was a lot in 2000 but nothing today in relation to size of portfolio.
- Ted/Todd manage roughly $15B each, that's 10% of Berkshires "investments in equity securities". Pittance in relation to Mr. Buffett's $300B+.
- Traditional money managers/hedge funds may have $20B, $40B, $60B+. They employ 100's of people. Ted/Todd each have 1 assistant.
- Size is the biggest thing holding them back from outsized returns, who knows what other funds actually manage and their are some lists out there but here is the point, they are tiny in comparison. Both Ted/Todd proved they could deliver outsized returns with small amounts of capital in previous life. Also previous market cycle.
- Ted/Todd true value will only shine through once the loaming shadow of Mr. Buffett is gone
- Finding a "stock picker" successor was not the task for Mr. Buffett in looking for replacement, it was about capital allocation for the next 10/15/20years. Giving Ted/Todd a traditional yardstick to compare performance is not the game although monthly reports are shown to CEO.
- Trying to paint Ted/Todd as classical money managers is a mistake. They do many things for Berkshire. And just having them at the ready for future issues is important. I view them as the fire sprinkler alarm handle inside Berkshire. Rarely used but when needed incredibly important.
- Ted/Todd are going to make some mistakes with hindsight, they will lose money. Mistakes are fine. Permanent loss of large amounts of capital is not fine and trusting someone to do that job as well as deliver "alpha" is yeoman's work - could prove to be difficult in coming years as capital amounts grow.
- Ted/Todd have not had an opportunity, due to the "Fed Put" and other governmental intervention, to operate in a prolonged bear market. Everyone has made money for previous 12-15years - most glorious bull market in history coming off 2008-2009 financial crisis.
- Ted/Todd will also have to replace themselves at the end of their tenure and finding someone who can replace themselves is not an easy job. I believe both Ted/Todd have the character traits to attract/find the right kind of replacement when that time comes.
Final thought:
- Berkshire today is not the same company as Berkshire in 2000. Different game.
- Ted/Todd's value will be shown when they can allocate significant sums into situations - $50B-$100B+ and there be a significant margin of safety.
- Mr. Buffett has repeatedly said Ted/Todd are Berkshire's intellectual property. Almost like the recipe for Coca Cola, you don't share the recipe hence the reason why they do not get on the mic and to cast their views on markets/businesses. I tend to agree.
- Looking forward to watching them both grow as managers/allocators and be stewards of Berkshire's capital (our money).
With all due respect, where do you get the idea that Todd delivered outsized returns before Berkshire? As for size being an impediment to their performance, first of all, they clearly missed: MSFT, Alphabet, Meta, LVMH, Hermes, Costco, Chipotle, Progressive, Visa, MasterCard, and the list goes on and on. Also, somehow large size did not prevent sir Christopher Hohn from putting damn good numbers.
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15 minutes ago, Hektor said:
You mean the Muslims in India are treated the way Muslims treat Christians and other minorities in Muslim majority countries? Actually, Christians and other minorities in Muslim majority countries can't even dream of being treated the same way that Muslims are treated in India. How are Christians and Zoroastrians and Bahai of Iran treated? Christians of Iraq? Christians of Lebanon and Egypt? You cannot build a church in Saudi Arabia. How are Christians treated in Chechnya?
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5 hours ago, DooDiligence said:
Terrible place to be from. I remember my parents going to a school/church meeting when a black family was trying to get their kid into Pius. My parents had them over for dinner and the neighbors hated us afterwards because they thought my folks were trying to sell the house to black people (the place was for sale at the time). We moved to Milton, FL around 8th grade. No more futbol until I went to AATC in Ozark, AL (Airframe & Powerplant mechanic training), and another student organized a squad. I'd love to find a good sax player!
I was fortunate to hear Sonny Rollins live a couple of decades ago in Carnegie Hall. Still love to listen to Coltrane. You got to spend some time in NY for the music - we went an amazing Argentian music concert the other day - Pablo Ziegler.
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26 minutes ago, DooDiligence said:
Yes. I (62yom) went to Catholic school in Mobile, AL when he was still at Man U. Played soccer at St. Pius X and our coach (Fr. Nicolas) was straight from the motherland. I had nun's all the way to the 7th grade and thought most of them were IRA terrorists. I still get nervous when I hear Edelweiss because of the trauma of sister Gertrude's music class. Was an alter boy, love fart jokes and my Dad grew up in the UK. Dribble on brother!
edit: I don't keep up with what's going on in the game now but do catch important matches. Don't care who wins, just enjoy watching the artistry.
That's funny, my college suit mate was from Mobile Alabama. Black kid who played the saxophone, although he is 15 years younger than you are.
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7 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:
We live paycheck to paycheck and are very happy with this.
Though I'm not american...
I work 80% and my wife 60%, we got a massive mortgage so that we did not have to put up a lot of money up front and instead invest it.
So we don't really save any money from our paycheck, we spend most of it leading a normal comfortable life and whatever is left we use for renovations.
That said, our portfolio's combine to roughly 6 years of net annual salaries.
The gains we realise on this (which are untaxed in my country) outweigh whatever we could save by working more because the tax rate on labor is so high (55% in the highest bracket, where I am).
Belgian?
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So, I think that this is sadly very true. Two examples from this week:
a) A doctor and his wife, $400K+ annual income in NYC, two kids, late 40s, kids aged 12 and 7. Zero savings, except for $300K in 401(k). Own their apartment, worth probably $800K (there is a mortgage on it), which was bought nine years ago, with the downpayment provided by parents. Spend money like drunken sailors - take out several times a week, camps for kids at $25K total for the summer, three vacations per year including a $20K cruise in 2023.
b) A doorman (who just got fired) and his wife, a cook for NYC DOE. The guy also worked a second job. Combined income of about $100K after-tax, two kids both grown and out fo the house. Couple's age is 50. Zero savings. Why? Stupid decisions - no bank account so 3-5% paid on every check cashed, smoking a pack a day ($7K per annum on cigarettes per person) and things of that nature.
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16 minutes ago, Sweet said:
What’s the argument? That the allies should have diverted bombers to bomb the concentration camps?
The argument is that Allies did not give a damn about saving Jews, and fought Nazis for their own reason and not for the purpose of saving Jews. This does not take anything away from the sacrifice of millions of young men who lost their lives or became seriously injured. I and everyone in the West owes them a deep debt of gratitude. However to say that Allies fought to save Jews when they took every opportunity not to is absurd.
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30 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:
Peace .... and an end to 7-months of war.
SD
Peace? What are you smoking? Hamas has claimed time and time again that it will fight until Israel ceases to exist. There was peace on October 6th, so if Hamas is interested in peace, why did it attack on October 7th? Hamas has never shown that it wants peace. It wants a break in hostilities until an opportune time to strike again. https://www.answering-islam.org/Terrorism/peace_concept.html. Read the Quran, and read the history of Islam.
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22 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:
Keep in mind that as long as the Gaza war remains ‘over-there’, the western world can just wring its hands, and send weapons/money. Different story when it’s ‘here too’, on campuses all over the world; and much more effective when the targets are the kids of the wealthy - with disproportional influence.
It is a simple matter to divert Israeli bound artillery shells, rockets, bullets, etc. to the Ukraine which desperately needs them; and straight forward to ‘delay’ gasoline and money flows as well. It is also hard to prosecute a strike for any length of time with limited reserves, and a horrific daily burn.
Over the weekend, Hamas offered peace and an end to the war; the only reason the war continues today is because Israel chose to walk away in favour of a strike on Rafah. Hot pursuit is defensible, whereas this? …. not so much.
Cut off the oxygen, and even a warlord can only live for so long.
SD
What has Hamas exactly offer, besides bombing a humanitarian crossing?
Share your Portfolio 2024
in General Discussion
Posted
Aimco (AIV) - 4.7% position
Ashtead PLC - 4% position
Vistry PLC - 3.9% position
Caseys General Stores - 4.5% position
Dior - 5% position
Coca Cola Consolidated (COKE) - 4.5% position
CRH - 8% position
Fairfax International (FRFHF) - 9% position
GE Aerospace - 4% position
St JOE (joe) - 10.5% position
KSB AG - 4% position
L'Oreal - 5.5% position
Monarch Cement - 4% position
MSGE - 4% position
New England Realty - 13% position
Progressive Insurance (PGR) - 5% position
Philip Morris International - 7% position
Safran - 5% position
Transdigm - 4.5% position
Tel-Aviv Stock exchange = 9% position
Yellow Corp = 1% position