nsx5200
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Posts posted by nsx5200
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https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-stock-purchase-431172f6
"When Berkshire Hathaway disclosed its U.S. equity holdings as of Sept. 30 via its quarterly 13-F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission in mid November, it had asked the regulator for confidential treatment for one or more stocks."
"Barron’s has written about the Berkshire mystery purchase and speculated that it was a financial company based on disclosure in Berkshire’s third-quarter 10-Q report showing an increase of over $1 billion in the cost basis of its equity holdings in financial stocks.
The ultimate position in the company could total $5 billion or more."
Any idea? Trying to see what companies might be in this space, and see if the idea can be reverse engineered.
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On 2/5/2024 at 10:19 AM, Spekulatius said:
Should have monetized my “unique insight” better. Thought about buying some short dated puts but those things work maybe 1/3 or 1/4 times for me, so left it alone.
I very much like the industrial gas business. It’s like having a small royalty on industrial growth Each semiconductor fab build in the US will consume technical gases as long as they operate. This is a structurally advantaged business because once a supply is locked in, the customers rarely switch and the suppliers are highly concentrated. (Air Liquide, Lind, APD, Nippon Sanso (Matheson in the US) ). Those business will grow for decades and likely more than the GDP.
Do you have links/insight into what kind of process and gases are used in the semi manufacturing? It may be something I will need to ramp up on. TIA
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On 1/24/2024 at 1:38 PM, Longnose said:
Then why aren't we seeing more uber and lyft competitors in the US?
IMHO, the answer is in the question. There simply not enough margin in the business to support yet another competitor and the economy of scale to achieve a decent profit is not very well known. It took Uber 37 billion in annual revenue and roughly 15 years to achieve profit... I don't know about you, even if a new company is 4x more efficient, it would take nearly 10 billion in revenue to achieve profit, and I'm not sure if 4x more efficiency can be achieved without a real breakthrough in operating style. I say there are easier fish to catch, and looking at a 37 billion 10+ year problem, unless there's a real compelling new angle to this, I would, IMHO, rather just chunk money at S&P500.
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6 hours ago, FCharlie said:
Thanks for mentioning this one. In 2015 their market cap was about $3 billion and they've spent $3 billion buying shares since that time. They've opened about 500 new locations in that time. They are a lot like AutoZone.
I didn't dig too deeply, but it seems like they had to borrow to buy back shares, and yet their EPS is still not going up, if Macrotrends' data is accurate. Their operating performance is also not too consistent, even though their target market is the high volume, low margin business. Doesn't smell like a no-brainer to me yet. Is there something else besides the cannibal side that I missed, @Vish_ram?
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On 4/3/2022 at 6:24 AM, scorpioncapital said:
the next Faang is the government. You can invest in it by being a taxpayer and getting a check in the mail, forever )
So many to choose from. Any particular government do you recommend?
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While contacting them, here are some hints on optimizing your chance of getting what you want:
https://www.npr.org/2022/03/16/1086915600/get-what-you-want-customer-service
IMHO, with business-class seats, I'm pretty sure United CS will try to accommodate you as much as they can. Enjoy, and if you can, report back on how things have changed(or not changed) post-pandemic. TIA.
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Don't about untold, but I ran across these relatively unknown interviews from the Kunhardt Film Foundation with the people that interacted with WEB:
Warren Buffet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ieXLNVwshRU&t=31s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cd-w9H0G6nQ
Charlie Munger: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6s2HAzMeL0
Sandy Gottesman: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WGC69B3tWE
Peter Buffet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1bOnkLh_9E
Doris Buffett: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6C5IuD6rZjc
Howard Buffet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SY1OCV0vko
Carol Lomis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3F7SN3ID420
Bill and Melinda Gates: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBAiRcDzZ7U
The one from Howard is probably really relevant to shareholders of BRK
Possibly more that I might've missed. Most of them are on my backlog. Please share if you find any interesting nuggets in the videos, and if anybody have any interesting speech from Peter Lynch, I would appreciate some links to that. The ones I've come across seems like they have the same standard speech material and jokes that Lynch uses.
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10 hours ago, cubsfan said:
^^^ What's hilarious is that you don't think that this administration is responsible for high energy prices.
Now that is really rich. Just keep kidding yourself. Joe owns this one, just like he owns his Green New Deal.
I didn't know Biden was crowned the king of OPEC+ in secret. If you have credible news, please share. He did, however, pump in trillions of dollar that ended up inflating everything, and not just oil, so Joe's not completely blameless.
@Gregmal, I whole heartedly agree with you. If you know of a viable way to buy Gazprom at near zero pennies, I'd be happy to put in a dinner-valued lottery ticket. If the ticket is redeemable, it won't matter if we choose to blame Joe, Trump or heck, you can even blame me.
Here's an interesting article I ran across regarding dictorship and Putin:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putin-dictator-trap-russia-ukraine/627064/
Something to think about if Trump decides to run again.
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They are the leader in their very small ponds. IMHO, their biggest competitor is Apple. Every time Apple makes their phone/watch a little better, Garmin’s moat gets smaller. Great pivots from Garmin over the years, but can they really keep fighting the Apple beast? Unlike Home Depot vs Amazon, where there are natural moats, I don’t see that in Garmin. Doesn’t mean it’s not there. I just don’t see it, but I haven’t been looking. Let me know if there new insights.
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15 minutes ago, Dinar said:
Really? You should read it on the 1967 war. Actually, Arab armies massed on Israeli borders and the Suez Canal was closed to Israeli shipping. Nasser was promising to toss Jews into the sea. You are entitled to your opinion, not to invent facts.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Partition_Plan_for_Palestine
You poke the bear, expect the bear to bite. It seems like the facts haven’t really changed. A minority trying to rule an area due to Karen syndrome.
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21 hours ago, cubsfan said:
^^^ Gimme a break. The Palestinians don't leave Israel because it's the safest and best place to live
precisely BECAUSE the Israeli's are in charge. You think they want to live in the hell hole West Bank, Jordan,
Gaza or Lebanon with the criminals terrorist Fatah, Hezbollah or Hamas in charge? Really?
The displaced Palestinians have been offered their own homeland AND peace 3X since 1999 - and of course
the criminals terrorist WILL NOT ALLOW IT. Those are the facts - and you can't change them with this
stupid "narrative" bullshit. The only "peace" that the Iranian backed criminals will accept is for Israel
to be wiped off the map.
The Palestinians can have peace, prosperity , jobs and safety IF they just stop killing people. PERIOD.
Seems that what the term "civilization" actually means.I remember having a mock debate on this back in high school decades ago. Back then both sides more or less came to the conclusion that Israel invaded and took over West Bank territories without any real good reason. All the safety and other reasonings were pretty much not really significant. At the end of the day, Israel just wanted more land. Why? Couldn’t explain it then, still can’t explain it today. The closest thing I can think of is some ‘divine’ prophecy about some promised land leading to entitlement complex, which I think is what Putin is suffering from right now. Over the decades of accumulating casual readings, my impression is that they are treating the Palestinians as second class citizens, if at that, and continuing to take over land while asking why the Palestinians are so angry. In a way, it reminds me of the Angry Bird game…. In a very sad way.
I guess the short summary is that we see countries suffering from the Karen syndrome as well. On a country-wide scale.
It makes me wonder. Does having more land really mean a country is great? We see countries with relatively small land area and natural resources accomplish great stuff like UK, Japan, Singapore, etc. Doesn’t it show that to make a country great, it does not take land, but the quality of the people/government?
I find it amusing that great country have problems trying to keep people out where bad countries have issues keeping people in. Use that yard stick to measure Russian in regards to what it is trying to do with the Ukrainian refugees.
The US immigration problem is a good problem to have compared to the alternative.
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We’ve only seen Munger go all in on ideas that he knows he’s got an edge on. Some idea that more or less nobody else have figured out yet. Looking at the process they went through for Coke, I suspect it’s something along those lines. Something micro, with multiple factors at play to create a Lolla effect. My current thinking is that he sees BABA will one day challenging Amazon itself but on a global scale.
I remember seeing a lot of reviews/feedback from different countries when shopping on Ali, so it’s just a matter of continuing the execution and let the network/scaling effect take care of it since they seem to have the only practical(although not great) global logistic chain that delivers from supplier to consumer.
Does anybody have seen other competitors that can challenge that? I welcome ideas that refute those thoughts.
Full disclosure, I’m long in BABA and a bunch of other Chinese companies during this time of tech crackdown. Probably prematurely…
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@Spekulatius, why you said reminds me of this great article provided by turtle bay from Jared.Diamond regarding optimal government fragment and control structure.
Probably a bit too macro to be acted upon, investment-wise, but something to ponder when looking at dictatorish government vs fragmented (US, Euro). After reading that article, I can see some of the view points of the politics on the right in regards to supporting some of the more unpopular tech like guns.
Thanks for all the interesting ideas to keep the mind going. Leads to less trading, which is a good thing.
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2 hours ago, Peregrine said:
The 2019 protests began because of an extradition bill which would allow China to detain and extradite alleged criminals from Hong Kong. The bill was subsequently withdrawn in October of that year after weeks of escalating protests.
There was certainly no "take-over" in 2019 (the official hand-over happened in 1997) and Hong Kong is still under the "one country, two systems" legal distinction. I really don't know where some of you get your news from.
If you actually follow what is actually practiced, Hong Kong citizen have essentially lost their Democratic rights since. The Hong Kong citizens no longer can elect officials that have real power(lost of the second system, for all intent and purposes). Yes, on paper, it’s still two systems, in reality, it’s not. Similar to the Texas abortion non-ban. On paper, it’s not a ban, in practice, it’s more or less a ban. To argue otherwise is to deny reality. Here’s a sample of that type of analysis.
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/hong-kong-freedoms-democracy-protests-china-crackdown
If you have other credible sources that shows otherwise, you’re welcome to share. I concede that there’s a high probability that I may have missed another angle to it and welcome challenges to that.
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1 hour ago, Peregrine said:
China has massive income inequality. With 1.4 billion people, most people are still very poor. But the relevance to young Taiwanese isn't how the average Chinese person is doing - it's how well those living in coastal cities are doing because that's where they're most likely to relocate to find work.
This article provides some context: https://supchina.com/2019/02/26/young-taiwanese-are-dreaming-of-careers-in-china-but-not-unification/
"81 percent do not support Xi’s “one country, two systems” model"
Yet,
"According to a 2018 survey by Taiwan’s 1111 online job bank, 76 percent of Taiwanese said they would be interested in working in China, citing linguistic and cultural similarities and a stronger economy."
A minor, but significant detail: that article was written in 2019, pre Hong-Kong take-over.
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9 hours ago, Peregrine said:
...
I visited Taipei a few years ago and was astounded by how antiquated their society was - their banking system was still pen and paper, the population is old and in the words of the locals, the economy had been in stasis for 20 years. The contrast is night and day compared with China's Tier 1 cities. Taiwan's young also sees this and are making conscious choices to move to China in search of better jobs.
Taiwan is actually more Chinese than China, not having gone through the cultural revolution. So you actually experience more of the thousand years of legacy there. Some of the traditional spots may look older, but if you look closely, there is actually a lot more high-tech compared to a typical U.S. city. High speed rail connect the whole (small) country. Smart pass/card that's actually unibiqutious and usable. Government services can actually be accessed via non-descript terminals in 7-11's. Universal healthcare that covers both western and traditional medicine. Open digital government platforms (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G0v) that hackers can contribute to. Merit based society, starting from high school admission. Having a smaller area means program experiements are cheaper to run, and so the government have a willingness to try new things. For example, the smart pass/card has already evolved several generations already. It was this attitude that got the government investing in the semiconductor industry back in the 80's.
Taiwan uses a lot of tech where it really matters. IMHO, it's one of the most high tech Democratic country you'll find.
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On 2/25/2022 at 9:03 PM, LC said:
To allude to what Greg said earlier I think the best hedges are good undervalued companies that would be a decent investment on their own, AND also would benefit from whatever situation you are trying to bet against. So you give yourself multiple ways to potentially win under various scenarios.
Did I hear somebody say Coke, Berkshire, or Costco? (maybe not (too) undervalued...
)
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Speaking for myself. Parsad, I thank you for sponsoring this board to share valuable ideas and information. Whatever you need to do to keep the site operation is probably okay with me, as my tolerance for noise is fairly high and the signal level is sufficiently high enough to keep me coming back. Maybe there are other high roller out there that where every second lost can mean the difference of a few million lost. I find that long term investing is fairly tolerant in regards to timing and think that if we can weed out short term thinkers by adding more ads, I’d welcome that. Again, thanks for keeping this site operational. From rolling my own sites, I know this stuff is not cheap, time and resource wise and I hope others can appreciate that.
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I think he is talking about flawed ideas (investment ideas) here...not the concept of concentration.
I think he got burned by DFC (as did I... teach you to follow blindly) and realized that his ideas are not 100% flawless (or anywhere near, even with the best of the best) to concentrate like he used to. Couple this with the Kelly discussion above, and he's diversifying a bit more to play it safer.
The question that I pose is, is Buffet diversifying w/ his deals regarding gs, dow, etc, or asked another way if there were a opportunity that is big enough, would he be comfortable sinking all his current cash into it.
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In this article http://www.forbes.com/2009/02/23/graham-dodd-buffett-personal-finance_fund_managers.html?feed=rss_news, it lists a few stocks that he owns. Any body have any input on these zinc, cresy.
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I'm not sure how much leverage(margin) other gamblers are still using out there, but a minor dip in general stock price could cause margin calls, and turn those minor dips into bigger dips. It's very likely that since Berkshire hasn't dipped as much as the other stocks, people are liquidating it to cover their margin.
'23-'24 hidden stock purchase ideas
in Berkshire Hathaway
Posted
I thought about DFS as well, but the hidden disclosure (Nov. '23) was before COF announced DFS acquisition intention(Feb. '24). That in itself is not an issue, but was there wasn't an obvious catalyst back in late '23. In fact, it seems like their net income (quarter) dropped. Maybe he thought the drop was only temporary so that's why he bought into it.
FI is an interesting possibility. Anybody know what might be cause of the run up from late '23 to now (~$120 to $150)?