scorpioncapital

My reasoning goes like this: I think the odds of hitting $10 is about 1/3. The odds of staying around $15 is about 2/3. So the expected buy price should be $13.20/share. Since I'm an optimist, my buy order is in at $14 :)

While I'd love to buy LUK at $10, I am not at all certain it will ever get there. At $10, it would trade (and this is my opinion of adjusted values) somewhere between 33%-50% of book. That seems preposterously low unless this is the Great Depression v2.0