Longnose

I dont like the revenue declines but like you cited the revenues have been cyclical in the 10 year snapshot. I think we are seeing a post covid pull back. I personally expect them to rebound. This... They receive significant bumps in revenue when they sign new contracts. They had a bunch hit the pipeline near covid. Now we are seeing the draw down as the projects are reaching completion / maturity but this should also add an increase to overall long-term reoccurring revenue with the contracts and systems implemented for the long term. This old VIC write up talks about that. It was also written when the TBTC marketcap was at about what it is today. Casino softwares like TBTC's are very sticky like ERP systems. I believe they have a better offering. But to the above comment about being sticky... Its really hard to pull yourself off a casino software once your established on it. I think TBTC is taking a Signiant share of the new business for new and emerging casinos both in NA and INTL. This business is almost exclusively a word of mouth business built on trust. You don't sign on a new Casino management software without knowing its good and the executives that are making those decisions probably all know who each other and know which softwares are the best. I believe this is the catalyst. When it will happen i dont know... But at some point if they continue to steal share and new casinos continue to choose TBTC instead of the old dinosaur softwares. We will see one of the big guys buy them out. Does that happen this year or in 5 or 10 years I dunno. But, happy to let my position ride and see what happens. Book value per share is currently about $2 a share. So im getting the rest of the business for 1.45 a share? Havent seen history of shareholder abuse. Business reoccurring rev is sticky all they need to do is keep growing. Then hopefully they become an acquisition target. I think the CEO is about 60 and so if he decides to retire without accepting/seeking a buy out of some sort that could be problematic. He's probably the biggest wild card.

I've already built my position. so sure. Ticker is TBTC. Company is essentially Casino Software. Highly regulated industry. There is an old seeking alpha article that gives a pretty good summary of the company. They stole some nice business from their competitors during covid. to me the biggest risk is CEO retiring and not wanting to hustle anymore.

Yea, TBH most nano caps you just have to risk size them because your never gonna get all the details. You can do some scuttlebutt to get a little more comfortable but even then its still a gamble. I found a 16M marketcap OTC stock this past year that has a 10 year CAGR of 15-20% depending on when you start your timeline and not just one big moonshot where they went up like 500%. Steady growth, both in rev and profit. They are also in a pretty small niche with massive barriers to entry. There are only 3 major players above them that dominate a multibilion dollar market and these guys have been steadily stealing little bits of marketshare YoY from these mega companies. Im hoping that they continue to keep eating at the share and then become an acquisition target. Fun when you find these little guys that are out there hustling. And who knows maybe they get slammed on some regulation or something but thats why you risk size it and call it a day.

Often nano/micro caps have super low liquidity on the stock let alone liquidity on options if they even exist.

bahahahahahhahaha

I mean company inflation is defiantly real. BRK was somewhere between 10 and 22M market cap when Buffet took over BRK. He was playing with small companies. 22M adjusted for inflation would put it in the ream of ~220M and would still be considered a micro cap by todays standards.

I quite enjoy looking through the nano cap pile. Ive built several screeners in TIKR to sift through nanocaps periodically. I dont invest in tons of them but like to hold 1 or two at a time. Sizing the position according to the risk. I made a nice double on one a just before covid. A local company to me that i didnt know was listed. Bought it for 39M marketcap and sold when it went to 64M marketcap. I used smile every time i drove by them thinking I own a piece of that. Had another one I felt i had done some decent due diligence on and found out shortly after buying in that it was a shite company. I ended up taking a loss on this one reinforced the lesson that you need to really do your due diligence in this space and even then its still a risk. I currently have 2 positions the nano cap space. One ive been holding since pre-covid and the other I just started in late 2023. Companies in this space are fun and exciting and aren't without their risks but ill probably always have 1 or 2 risk adjusted nanocaps in my portfolio.

95% of the crypto mania was a scam. But i am still a fan of the technology and I believe it will continue to be influential in the future. BTC is the only one crypto I consider to be truly decentralized and potential to be an alternate currency. I think most proof of stake tokens including (ETH, SOL, AVAX, Etc..) are not truly decentralized. But I think the most interesting applications of crypto in future will occur in theses tokens. And acknowledging the stuff in the podcast. The stuff that was going on during the crypto mania was 100% whacky

my garden is so narrow that as soon as a weed starts growing it needs to be pruned quickly. (i run too concentrated.)

Searched for this and didnt see it mentioned anywhere. but i quite enjoy the all in podcast https://www.youtube.com/@allin I enjoy the various opinions of these high profile players talking tech, investing, politics, etc...

This is to me where BTC should shine. If i were stuck in one of these countries I would 100% be more happy to hold my money in BTC and over time you'd see the network effect of people just transacting in BTC grow. While in Thailand I noticed lots of vendors there were trying to move towards a cashless system using QR codes. (I believe this is being pushed by the Thai government) The QR system is still denominated in Baht. I thought to myself if you got a QR code on almost every stand. just have another QR code that goes to a lightning wallet and you'll have a lot lower transaction fees.

Big fan of Norton, Spacey, and Ryan Gosling. Interesting article. Thx for sharing.

I'd be down. Could set up a bracket for everyone who wanted to participate. Would just have to settle on time control. Bitz or Rapid, Could do them as dailys. But then it may take weeks to complete.

I play blitz and bullet on chess.com almost every day. been stagnant with my rating for years. just accepted this is where i am as i dont put extra effort in. 1300-1400 blitz and 1100-1300 bullet. Love playing! Also watch periodically I like Chessbrahs, John Bartholomew, and Hikaru Queens gambit as white, Scandinavian as black.

Nice! I just got back from visiting singapore & thailand last week. Was an awesome trip Singapore is stellar hope you have a great time.. After spending a few weeks in SE Asia and using Grab quite a bit it sparked my interest and I needa do a deeper dive on GRAB. Anyone else use / do any research on GRAB as an idea? while still not profitable and looks like its had quite the sell off since going public it does appear like it has a very long runway in front of it. We used it a lot in both Thailand and Singapore. They have a presence and visibility far above and beyond their competitors on the streets in SE Asia. Curious anyone elses thoughts.

While Im all for autonomous cars. I have a family ranch and love driving the 45 mins of dirt roads into the mountains. No autonomous car will take me where I want to go off road.

Love backpacking

Glad you enjoyed it. It really was a very fascinating view on BTC that i had never heard or considered before.

As a biology nerd and a crypto fan. I found this discussion much more entertaining than I expected.

https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2023/03/16/introducing-microsoft-365-copilot-your-copilot-for-work/

My wife gets hangry (aka fungry). When she starts getting in a mood. I start thinking in my head. OK she needs to eat where do we go lol.

Yes, I use TIKRs screener on OTC stuff.

TIKR and brain

Turned this post into a rap via ChatGPT. seemed appropriate....

Summer: Fishing, Hiking, backpacking, canyoneering, bees, working at the ranch. Winter: backcountry splitboarding, snowmobiling, hiking.