Longnose
-
Posts
332 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by Longnose
-
-
Been looking at CWST a little recently. Strong track record. Has some acquisitions that could unlock the next growth phase.
-
fine if were gonna hijack the thread into politics at least make it funny
-
1
-
-
Dont hijack the starship thread. Take politics back to the russia thread.. or elsewhere...
This is from the launch 10 months ago when they blew up the first rocket but some of the things they highlight in this blew my mind around the impacts of making these starships feasible and eventually getting them to be reusable.
Not an elon fan but i love watching the progress hes making for mankind.
-
I used to be all this.
On 3/16/2024 at 5:41 PM, Spekulatius said:Not a mental model, but more of a checklist is what I use:
I think what’s missing is sizing though.
1) Is this a good business?
2) Do I understand the business?3) Is the stock cheap?4) Is management capable and honest?5) Is the stock safe (balance sheet, business resilience)6) Are there more head winds or tail winds going forward? (Elevator going up or down?)Now i much more of this. supported by the checklist verifying that the downside is actually pretty limited.
On 3/16/2024 at 6:29 PM, Gregmal said:No real model. But generally speaking, what are the odds I make money, in absolute terms. I honestly have never cared or played the “will this outperform t-bills/S&P/whatever” game…that’s stupid. If I see an investment, EBay for instance…I can say that at $42 a share there’s virtually no way I lose money on it with a 3-5 year timeline. If risk is low, reward does not need to be super high…but the real gems are where you can find something with super low risks and some upside call options. Nintendo at $10, same thing.
So I guess really, for the super majority of my portfolio, I look for things where at worst my money isn’t going anywhere and at best I can make a lot. Over time I’ve moved away from stuff like biotech or cigar butts where I might make a lot but I also might lose a lot.
-
15-20% approx
-
12 hours ago, jfan said:
2) how decentralized are the full nodes in the network out there?
3) who is going to update, maintaining and provide the necessary solutions for bugs, soft forks as this technology progresses through time and scale?
2) how decentralized are the full nodes in the network out there? - Fully decentralized anyone can run one.
3) who is going to update, maintaining and provide the necessary solutions for bugs, soft forks as this technology progresses through time and scale? - People who believe in the decentralization of money. Hence running a full node in your basement allows you the ability to contribute and validate the blockchain as it scales. Offsetting the comment in argument 1. big centralizing forces cant offset the myriads of little guys running full nodes in their basements.
Play with it. Playing with it will develop understanding of it 10X faster than reading about it.
-
57 minutes ago, LC said:
So, what is the solution?
JK, JK, i don't actually wanna be like Singapore. But after visiting there may be some middle ground.
-
On 1/27/2024 at 5:39 PM, bargainman said:
Not sure where I'm going but I heard there's a dude living on cruise ships 50 weeks out of the year! Apparently costs about 80K years which isn't so bad really...
Our last cruise we sat a couple for dinners who are Chronic Cruisers.
They said they have several friends who retired and just rent out their houses and live on cruise ships full time (40-50) weeks a year. It actually seemed pretty affordable when i started sketching out the math.
The dinner couple we sat with were doing an extended back to back cruise. Prior to the week we cruised they were on the ship. and when we docked at the end of the trip. They stayed on the ship to go another week.
If youre into it. Its seems very doable.
-
41 minutes ago, rkbabang said:
Sometimes this thread is just too much. LOL
Im a crypto fan, but i had to check out from this thread.
-
Then why aren't we seeing more uber and lyft competitors in the US?
I think your oversimplifying it or we would see all the local markets popping up with their own versions of uber. They've been around long enough to see someone infringe on their share.
It Uber, Lfyt, or traditional taxi. or i gotta work for 4th option and at that point your just boycotting and being "that guy"
-
1 hour ago, LearningMachine said:
With Grab, if a competitor came up and had only 5% market share but a better price, do you think some customers would be willing to use the competitor on their homogenous product?
If so, where is the barrier to entry and moat?
Similar with Sea to some extent.
To me it so similar to the Uber Lyft scenario - Lyft hasn't been really able to steal significant share from Uber. Also, I don't know that there is substantial room to undercut them long term. We are seeing it with Uber and Lyft right now where they are now trying to drive more towards profitability instead of just rev/share growth accompanied with a ton of cash burn.
I don't think the moat is impenetrable and there is probably room for a tier 2 competitor. But when you are over there GRAB's presence is dominant right now. That it would be hard to overturn that without Grab screwing up their brand image or going bankrupt.
Short answer is i don't know. But Gut instinct based on mungers idea of saying if someone gave me the marketcap of GRAB (12B) and said go build a company to compete/overturn GRAB. i think it would be freaking hard and at best you'd create a Lyft that is taking 30% share while grab retains 70% share.
Though i could be wrong and often am.
-
On 10/16/2022 at 11:07 PM, WayWardCloud said:
You could look towards South East Asia where tech growth has been decimated :
Grab (9B market cap)
GoTo (15B market cap)
Sea (23B market cap)
Ive been digging into Grab.
Ever since my visit last fall. I've been trying to get more comfortable with GRAB.
It felt like its going to be a clear winner with a long runway from an outsider looking in.
But need to get more confidence in the financials and politics.
-
3 hours ago, Morgan said:
What do you think of the declining revenues since Q12022? Revenues have had some cyclicality over the years, so maybe this is par for the course? There was a similar pattern in 2012 to 2017, then again from 2018 to 2022.
I dont like the revenue declines but like you cited the revenues have been cyclical in the 10 year snapshot. I think we are seeing a post covid pull back. I personally expect them to rebound.
3 hours ago, Morgan said:Do you feel revenues are growing from more and more business or simply keeping up with inflation? Revenues have trended upwards for 10 years though.
3 hours ago, KJP said:Revenue is lumpy because they record significant one-time revenue when they initially sell a system
This... They receive significant bumps in revenue when they sign new contracts. They had a bunch hit the pipeline near covid. Now we are seeing the draw down as the projects are reaching completion / maturity but this should also add an increase to overall long-term reoccurring revenue with the contracts and systems implemented for the long term. This old VIC write up talks about that. It was also written when the TBTC marketcap was at about what it is today.
Casino softwares like TBTC's are very sticky like ERP systems.
3 hours ago, Morgan said:Why do casinos pick this over their competitors?
I believe they have a better offering. But to the above comment about being sticky... Its really hard to pull yourself off a casino software once your established on it. I think TBTC is taking a Signiant share of the new business for new and emerging casinos both in NA and INTL. This business is almost exclusively a word of mouth business built on trust. You don't sign on a new Casino management software without knowing its good and the executives that are making those decisions probably all know who each other and know which softwares are the best.
3 hours ago, Morgan said:Why hasn't a competitor just acquired this?
I believe this is the catalyst. When it will happen i dont know... But at some point if they continue to steal share and new casinos continue to choose TBTC instead of the old dinosaur softwares. We will see one of the big guys buy them out. Does that happen this year or in 5 or 10 years I dunno. But, happy to let my position ride and see what happens. Book value per share is currently about $2 a share. So im getting the rest of the business for 1.45 a share? Havent seen history of shareholder abuse. Business reoccurring rev is sticky all they need to do is keep growing. Then hopefully they become an acquisition target. I think the CEO is about 60 and so if he decides to retire without accepting/seeking a buy out of some sort that could be problematic. He's probably the biggest wild card.
-
2 hours ago, coc said:
Care to share?
I've already built my position. so sure. Ticker is TBTC.
Company is essentially Casino Software. Highly regulated industry. There is an old seeking alpha article that gives a pretty good summary of the company. They stole some nice business from their competitors during covid.
to me the biggest risk is CEO retiring and not wanting to hustle anymore.
-
4 minutes ago, Saluki said:
I find with the very small stuff it's very hard to get comfortable even after doing your due diligence. The CEO and board are probably people that you aren't familiar with and if it's, say, a $100mm company, you may not even find a lot of articles on them if you search. The answer to that may just be proper position sizing.
Another check may be to see how long it's been around. Smith and Wesson is only a $600mm company, but it's been around since the 1800s. Some of these AI, legal marijuana, crypto businesses, drug patents, haven't been around long enough to know if they are looking to run a business or a ponzi scheme. I have a small position in a sub $100mm company, and it was hard to find any information about them, but it's been around since the 1950s, so if they were playing the long con, I think we would've seen it by now.
Yea, TBH most nano caps you just have to risk size them because your never gonna get all the details. You can do some scuttlebutt to get a little more comfortable but even then its still a gamble.
I found a 16M marketcap OTC stock this past year that has a 10 year CAGR of 15-20% depending on when you start your timeline and not just one big moonshot where they went up like 500%. Steady growth, both in rev and profit. They are also in a pretty small niche with massive barriers to entry. There are only 3 major players above them that dominate a multibilion dollar market and these guys have been steadily stealing little bits of marketshare YoY from these mega companies. Im hoping that they continue to keep eating at the share and then become an acquisition target.
Fun when you find these little guys that are out there hustling. And who knows maybe they get slammed on some regulation or something but thats why you risk size it and call it a day.
-
39 minutes ago, Intelligent_Investor said:
I feel like with true nanocaps that are undervalued the play is probably LEAPS, because most are either value traps or multibaggers, so the end payout even if owning the common stock looks a lot like an option payout anyways. The option leverage will in turn probably turn a 5x return into a 50 bagger
Often nano/micro caps have super low liquidity on the stock let alone liquidity on options if they even exist.
-
21 minutes ago, alxcii said:
Before you make another "sure" bet, I'm here to collect the $100 you owe me on the ETF approval that had a 0% chance.
bahahahahahhahaha
-
39 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:
I am shocked when I look up the capitalization range of what is called small cap, micro cap or nano cap etc. . I don't think the "nano cap" classification even existed 20 years ago. A stock with $2B in market cap is now a "small cap" and $2B used to be huge, a business that employed 10 thousands of people...
I guess that's what inflation and a decades long bull market do to my perception.
I mean company inflation is defiantly real. BRK was somewhere between 10 and 22M market cap when Buffet took over BRK.
He was playing with small companies. 22M adjusted for inflation would put it in the ream of ~220M and would still be considered a micro cap by todays standards.
-
I quite enjoy looking through the nano cap pile. Ive built several screeners in TIKR to sift through nanocaps periodically. I dont invest in tons of them but like to hold 1 or two at a time. Sizing the position according to the risk. I made a nice double on one a just before covid. A local company to me that i didnt know was listed. Bought it for 39M marketcap and sold when it went to 64M marketcap. I used smile every time i drove by them thinking I own a piece of that.
Had another one I felt i had done some decent due diligence on and found out shortly after buying in that it was a shite company. I ended up taking a loss on this one reinforced the lesson that you need to really do your due diligence in this space and even then its still a risk.
I currently have 2 positions the nano cap space. One ive been holding since pre-covid and the other I just started in late 2023.
Companies in this space are fun and exciting and aren't without their risks but ill probably always have 1 or 2 risk adjusted nanocaps in my portfolio.
-
95% of the crypto mania was a scam.
But i am still a fan of the technology and I believe it will continue to be influential in the future.
BTC is the only one crypto I consider to be truly decentralized and potential to be an alternate currency.
I think most proof of stake tokens including (ETH, SOL, AVAX, Etc..) are not truly decentralized. But I think the most interesting applications of crypto in future will occur in theses tokens.
And acknowledging the stuff in the podcast. The stuff that was going on during the crypto mania was 100% whacky
-
my garden is so narrow that as soon as a weed starts growing it needs to be pruned quickly. (i run too concentrated.)
-
Searched for this and didnt see it mentioned anywhere.
but i quite enjoy the all in podcast
https://www.youtube.com/@allin
I enjoy the various opinions of these high profile players talking tech, investing, politics, etc...
-
1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:
Argentina devalued the peso by 54% overnight and is targeting a 2% monthly devaluation going forward.
Bitcoin welcomes long-term Argentinian savers with open arms
This is to me where BTC should shine. If i were stuck in one of these countries I would 100% be more happy to hold my money in BTC and over time you'd see the network effect of people just transacting in BTC grow.
While in Thailand I noticed lots of vendors there were trying to move towards a cashless system using QR codes. (I believe this is being pushed by the Thai government) The QR system is still denominated in Baht. I thought to myself if you got a QR code on almost every stand. just have another QR code that goes to a lightning wallet and you'll have a lot lower transaction fees.
-
Big fan of Norton, Spacey, and Ryan Gosling.
Interesting article. Thx for sharing.
Cryptocurrencies
in General Discussion
Posted
Literally had this conversation with a friend on Monday. I'm totally split on will we keep rolling or will there be a drop at the halving due to miner sell off.
Either way I'm still DCAing