changegonnacome

What strike you shooting for out of interest?

Crazy thing is new variant = renewed uncertainty = renewed uncertainty = more accommodative FED/ECB......omicron might extend the levitation of the indexes for a little while longer (than otherwise might have happened) if your a believer in TINA & liquidity being a key driver........however increasing signficantly the risk of CB's having to slam on the breaks later in 2022 with some non-forecasted interest rate rises to stem runaway inflation. Lets see what the data says on Omicron - but if its more transmissible than Delta (seems more likely by the day), the big question is does it escape immunity more so than delta & once infected is it more virulent such that people end up in the ER in greater numbers. Any of the last two and the FED's plan to double the pace of tapering in January will be out the window IMO. I think we've all seen strange things occurring in the broader market in recent times.....I remember one jobs report which was poor but where the indexes rallied in response knowing it would likely lead to lower for longer rates/more stimulus. Indexes have become somewhat unmoored from the real underlying economy for a while now and seem to be driven by liquidity & expectations of accommodation/fed put. It will be fascinating to watch over the coming weeks.

Thanks great info - is there much 'hustling' with them required to get their best rate (as long as your assets are in the say $500k+ category)?

100% true - but to the average Joe Schmo - its that speed number & brand/price/signup offer/friction that moves new customer adds..….not underlying tech….and to your point on speeds and people not noticing….your exactly right..…I’ve yet to come across a household that can really outline rationally to me a need for anything more than maybe 250mbps down….do the math on say FIVE concurrent 4k UHD streams, each stream requiring max 50mbps down. I mean this is 250mps down…….4k UHD content is a rare bird & rarer still for five individuals in a household to find & watch those sources concurrently. Cable plant with a solid pathway to 10 gigs down has a LONG runway. Barring some massive technologically change in the near future (say next FIVE years) - I think fixed data providers are going to find it hard to push speeds beyond 1 GIG on to consumers with pricing power…..there comes a point where perceived speed increases underpinned by no real requirement need = diminishing returns…..beyond 1 gig feels like that number to me.

Its that time of year - i wanted to sanity check a couple of maneuvers/scenarios with folks here to make sure I'm not triggering a wash sale, constructive sale or any other IRS troubles. - Scenario One - Step 1 - Sell XYZ stock for $65, cost basis of $85 for long term capital loss Step 2 - Sell an OTM 1 year put option.....$55 strike Step 3 - Buy back XYZ after 31 Days From what I can gather its all good if sold put is OTM......any 15% banding rules here? Could I fly closer to $65 current price and just ensure the put excercise date is outside the 31 days? -Scenario Two- Short Position (temporarily hopefully) gone wrong......but with juicy short term capital losses to use up Step one - Buy to cover XYZ stock at $100, cost basis was $50....good short term losses Step Two - Sell Calls on XYZ stock with $125 strike (does call expiration even matter here??) Step Three - After 34 days (31 days + 3 day time taken to deliver shares to broker) sell short XYZ stock again to recreate orginal short position Any thoughts on Scenario Two above? Also posting some links I've found in other threads & web broadly that have proven useful lest anyone else is playing around with tax loss harvesting options right now: https://www.nysscpa.org/news/publications/the-trusted-professional/article/tools-techniques-to-shield-and-defer-taxes-on-unrealized-stock-gains Strategies to Help Clients Around the Wash Sale Rule | Nasdaq https://www.optionstaxguy.com/substantially-identical https://www.optionstaxguy.com/wash-sales Wash Sales and Options – Fairmark.com

Right V & T are an exception in terms of branding - I'm talking about the pure play fibre guys nobody has heard off in their area Ting etc. Cable branding beats these greenfield players even if fibre has become a brand of sorts......ATT & V as overbuilders are a problem for cable guys, no doubt....double play (FTTH & Cell) with owner economics is a great bundle for provider AND customer........luckily for cable guys, T & VZ are in a desperately capital intensive core business where FTTH projects are the first domino to fall in a capex cutting cycle.....

Agree - to my point on speed - ADSL has serious issues getting to the speeds I mentioned 400mb - 500mb...customers want 'me too' speeds.......the reality is those same ADSL areas if presented with cable would upgrade in droves too....the natural experiment would be to find a ADSL market where a cable company edged out into that footprint at the same time a pure play fibre provider moved into the same area (not ATT fibre or FIOS). My guess, without anything to back it up & with both providers offering say 500mb for $50's a month......would be the cable companies brand recongintion/marketing in that area would beat the technical advantage of fibre provider offering in terms of penetration of that footprint. People buy speed & buy brand not underlying network infrastructure architecture.

I've mentioned this over on the Altice thread - but people buy the brownie, not the recipe.....HFC v Fibre is way over normal peoples heads.....in the case of home internet they buy speed, brand familiarity & whatever enticing offer the provider might have on that month gift card / free HBO etc. etc. ......most anybody I've ever interacted with couldn't care less about connection symmetry, latency, jitter........they go for the Mid-tier speed bucket on offer, say ~300 - 400mpbs from cable/fibre guys........and if it works, it works . Its why I believe the pure play fibre overbuilders with no brand are going to struggle or certainly have scary low IRR's once they've signed up the nerds, who do care, on whatever footprint they've chosen.

Sorry posted on the run and reading my comment it looks like I'm editorializing....guess i just wanted to acknowledge I was aware of his long standing reputation lest someone come on and enlighten me....wanted to share for everyone to read its a well thought out piece.....I think his arguments and data are compelling......S&P profit margins peaking (think everyone can see labour's leverage increasing everyday), implied expectations and optimism built in to many many stocks & retail investors unrealistic return projections, inflationary trend (& deflationary effects of China/E.Europe dissipating) meaning the next 20 years is likely to one of gradually rising rates as opposed to the last 40 being falling ones. Burry, Grantham & Hussman cant be more vocal right now......but more than vocal I think there's a tone now to their warnings which is taking on the shrill of someone screaming fire in a crowded theatre.....it seem to me you only do that when your fairly certain your going to proven right! As Howard Marks says - "move forward, but with caution" and I'm heeding that advice right now with a conservative posture

Perma-bear extraordinaire: https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc211108/

Interesting know ZERO about technical analysis...whats a price gap indicative off? On the theme of Tesla/BTC..........I've also noticed the SPAC market has somewhat perked up......maybe just the Donald effect....or a sign of more risky behavior. Its funny on Tesla at this point I'm starting think of the common stock as more like a sh!tcoin than an equity.......cant help but feel that BTC gains flow in Tesla & vice versa.........both locked in an ascending spiral to da moon

I wasn’t sure the Tesla move counted as full parabolic but then Gali used that word in the first 30 seconds of his video below today…….if Gali says it went parabolic, you know it went parabolic for sure! Agree with @TwoCitiesCapital in the parabolic move BTC should rally to $100,000…….Tesla at that stage will probably be $1,500. Jeremy Grantham will be licking his lips and going on podcasts every 45 minutes at stage. He’ll have the final piece of his bubble puzzle.

One bubble template suggests that a true end to a bubble requires the riskiest assets to go parabolic at the end beyond even the wildest dreams of market participants........BTC and Tesla are my bell weathers for exuberance, confidence & optimism in the future, many have noted how they have moved together in the past..........in fact I know a chosen few who's portfolio contains only these two stocks with a sprinkling of AMC & Gamestop just to make them ultra "now"........Tesla looks like its gone vertical today and BTC not far behind......I'll keep watching these two in amazement but it certainly feels like a mania

I keep an eye on Tesla & BTC/Crypto...........feel like if risk seeking behavior & exuberance are truly rolling over it should be showing up there yet Tesla is flirting with ATH (10% off) along with BTC........these are the ultimate expression of confidence, optimism & speculative valuation zeal...........the fact neither has rolled over just yet makes me think that if you follow Grantham's logic the last chip, the last margin bet has not been pushed into the centre of the blackjack table just yet. Looking forward between now and year end - the debt limit has been resolved and sounds like to me the looney liberals are ready to capitulate on the build back better price tag such that it and infrastructure bill pass and are signed into law by Biden by Nov 15th.......then they all run back to the districts to claim credit. I personally think the market will hold up into the holiday season with that stimualtive positive tailwind of DC largesse ringing in the publics ears but 2022 will see no NEW trillion dollar packages & the economy and by extension the markets will struggle as the D.C. backed injections dry up.

@Spekulatius absolutely.......a dangerous & interesting time as the hive mind decides wether its still to da moon or back to grandmas......and like that gentleman above.........a feather could knock it over right now........be careful out there kids

Yep seems that way - each slide is met by a not so equal rally in lots of stocks i keep an eye on while slowly churning downwards in aggregate........lower lows and all that...........I expect possibly a nice rally when the debt ceiling is raised AND Biden bills pass......Biden's bill in the $2tn range seems inevitable to me despite the rhetoric.....possibly the last federal economic $ stimulus commitment for the US economy to come for a long time……….as DC slides back into a food fight where nothing gets done for years. Then its good old productivity growth + consumption/consumer confidence + inflation driving the economic numbers.

I agree with you the concentration in names is there already the only caveat would be some of those names havent gone quite yet into "bonkers" territory..............If you adjust for ultra low interest rates today vs. 1999 and think about the narrative that allowed Coca-Cola to get to crazy prices in 1999 with the 10yr T @ 5.75%. The 10yr at 1.3% today.....well it allows for some possibly nose bleed pricing on FANGMA moving forward that can be justified. Will be interesting to watch over the coming months.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-03/peak-everything-puts-shine-on-equity-market-s-sturdiest-stocks?sref=7zqHEcxJ Rotation into the 'best' companies is one of Grantham's final template steps in a bubble popping - career risk dictates it as an asset managers last defensible choice.......the keep dancing while music plays part of the market cycle according to Grantham .............if he's right expect Microsoft/Adobe et al to get outrageously expensive in the next few months while a fewer and fewer group of stocks support the broad index levels. I of course remain skeptical of these market calls but interesting to possibly see some of this play out..........regardless I stay invested in dirt cheap companies (MSGE / GLV / BIRG / LBTYK / WFC /CLPR) which by any historical measure would be cheap regardless of where the S&P sits.

Peak optimism/confidence seemed to be sometime between late Feb - May in lots of the high flyers, which are significantly off since then with what might be a dead cat bounce happening in some of those same stocks right now…….if they roll over again in the next couple of months it will be interesting to see where the floor is on some of those. The indices of course have continued to climb higher which is of course the interesting discussion that happening over at the - Are we at a TOP - thread Seems to me liquidity is driving the hot stocks and with kids / college kids back to in-person learning now……..and big kids (office workers) drifting back into the office after Labor Day in greater & greater numbers as the weeks roll on……………your really looking at a cohort of buyers who since Mid-2020 were bored at home/alone & connected to a device that nudged them to buy the dip & preferably with options. Much harder to be messing around on Robinhood with your boss floating around or a co-worker waffling to you about how busy things are with them

I was thinking September 3rd myself……

I listened to Grantham - am aware of his permabear reputation but some things he said did/do resonate with me and I made notes from a couple of his recent podcasts & hard to argue with his points - a natural bias has occurred in my portfolio anyway away from the US but certainly his thoughts/points on the US in particular point to choppy waters ahead IMO. My notes below specifically around US valuations... some obvious, some more nuanced that could be PHD thesis in and off themselves: Historically high PE Ratio on S&P S&P Price to Sales ratio highest ever recorded Valuations underpinned by record high profit margins as % of GDP (tax cuts / DOJ allowing monopolistic industries to emerge naturally or through M&A AND one time unique SG&A corporate cost saving through globalization that saw China/Eastern Europe labor pools drive down costs & compete away labors leverage over capital in U.S. over the last 30 years). Trend likely to be the opposite over the next 20 years. Record valuations underpinned by historically unprecedented high bonds / low interest rates Valuations underpinned by ~30 year period of flat inflation as China/Eastern Europe labor capacity was deflationary.....to be reversed as demographic changes in China, Western World, Japan & Korea reduce global workforce & are not replaced by Globalization 'suitable' labor pools in stable countries i.e. Africa etc. Labor's leverage over capital will return driving down profit margins Record Issuances / Capital Raising as a TOP sign - 2020/21 record IPO’s & SPACS Extreme/seemingly crazy risk taking - Crypto sh!t coins & NFT’s even blank check companies Unprecedented retail participation - ~15 million retail brokerages accounts opened in USA in 20/21 Financial news becoming THE news (GameStop) Investors on margin at record rates Accommodative & complacent FED Particular Mania / Meme Stocks - GameStop etc. a bubble has its own language/ lingo previous nifty fifty - today - HODL, FUD, , to the moon, Breath decreases in the index while it continues higher.......career risk pushes capital away from the once high flyers that begin to rollover think pets.com in 1999 or Fastly today......and in the end herds managers into names with less career risk that allow them to 'keep dancing' as the boat goes over the cliff read Cisco/Coca-Cola in the 90's.....today maybe some of the FANG names Apple/Microsoft/Alpabet I have reservations on some of the above but just outlining points for others here seen as I'd typed them as i listened.

Confidence termites…..I like the analogy His bubble popping/deflating template does seem to be playing out…….the fastly’s & their ilk the most egregiously overvalued stocks etc. have indeed been taken out and shot…..to a certain extent……Russell is struggling and I see in my own portfolio (which skews value) a disconnect between the SP500 being up daily but my modestly priced stocks are having daily drawdowns. I foresee significant long term capital gains selling effects kicking in soon too - I’m certainly sitting on large gains in certain positions where I’m waiting only for the clock to toll midnight to sell. Suspect I’m not alone…..I’ve a hit list of domino positions that will fall over the next couple of months with 90% of them done by the end of October.

Tesla/Elon's dancing AI 'robot' in a leotard last night & the stock rising today was the top signal for me........when Elon himself has jumped the shark so badly with stock promotion antics that beggar belief its a top signal for me. I mean I wondered if this was a sketch from SNL that didn't make the cut or something it was so ridiculous. If this isnt the canary robot in the coal mine not sure what is:

MSGE

Exactly I think of ETH as a short term beneficiary of what is in effect a bunch of penny/micro-penny stock/token promotion schemes/scams...........a decentralized Stratton Oakmont for the digital age.......ETH does well as long as the plates keep spinning.......until you run out of suckers in the underlying tokens or the SEC comes knocking