changegonnacome

This is a common mis-perception IMO - that Russia is going to seek to occupy Ukraine with troops for years etc. or even install a pro-russian government that would require Russian security assistance to maintain its power in Kiev. This is not whats happening & I don't believe this is the plan at all. Russia understands what occupying a hostile region looks like with insurgents & freedom fighters.....its hell......Russia just watched the worlds greatest military & economic power (the USA) fail to ever really gain control of Afghanistan & run away after 20 years with its tail between its legs. The plan is to make it so Ukraine won't be joining NATO or the EU ever or anytime soon. Remember Russia's red line issue? Therefore the plan is not to occupy Ukraine - the plan is to completely wreck Ukraine.........reduce large swathes of it to rubble, cripple it economically/militarily for a generation.......so its no fit partner for anyone EU/NATO/USA............AND importantly the next time Russia lays out a red line issue again which involves, let's face it, a non-strategically important country like Ukraine....the West won't push any further & will make concessions public or privately to Putin. My view now having thought about it for a while - is that as the major cities of Ukraine empty of their civilians, Putin will move to an aerial assault strategy leveling Ukraine's major cities and major infrastructure with carpet bombing Ala BBC article I linked to above........this may go on for a few weeks but it won't take so long......then he will come to negotiating table and a peace of sorts will be agreed. He will be smirking in the photos as Western leaders like Macron claim a great diplomatic victory.

As I mentioned forward thinking, strategic & pragmatic Ukrainian politicians could/should have done both……..when re-locating the physical location of your country isn't an option, geography is destiny…….the only logical path forward is to try and get on with both your neighbors……you can “join” the EU without participating in its political institutions (which over time might have increasing military aspirations) you sign an FTA like Switzerland….you make concessions in Crimea/Dombass…..setup Ukrainian/Russian cross border institutions that have some say in the contested region…..like Republic of Ireland/UK has in Northern Ireland

NATO membership, even the idea, is completely over for Ukraine……..this is the fundamental purpose of the Russian invasion………the West taught Russia was fucking around when it said Ukrainian membership of NATO was red line issue………well this is what red line issues look like……Russia backed up its talk and invaded the whole goddam country. The same way the Cuban missle crisis was a red line issue for USA in the 1960’s……it wasn’t talk, they backed up with destroyers & the blockade in the Atlantic & nuclear missles pointed at Moscow

Prolonging a conflict that is destined to end one way is not “help”. Conflicts generally end when both sides reach a mutually hurting stalemates ala Zartman’s theory. What looks like ‘help’ - in international conflicts has been shown time and time again to have unintended consequences that usually have bad outcomes simply delaying the inevitable while increasing the body count. The asymmetric nature of the Russian military vs. the Ukrainian military (+ Western assistance short of actual help) to me doesn’t appear to provide any hope of a mutually hurting stalemate. Unless I’ve underestimated the damage of sanctions to Putin regime/economy (which I concede is possible). We are in stage one of this conflict - in some ways you should see this phase of the conflict (with Russian boots on the ground right now) as a way to kick-off the war but more importantly it is designed to drive out the civilian population (which is happening right now). Russia will then move on to aerial assaults by missle/plane to Aleppo-ize Ukrainian cities (i.e. reduce them to rubble)…….this is the Russian way. It was of course the Western way in WWII when we beat Germany/Japan into submission without sending a single infantry man into Tokyo for example (see BBC below correctly identifying the next phase of the conflict). Whatever Putin’s military objectives are in Ukraine (my guess is to simple wreck it, not occupy it) make no mistakes about it he will achieve his objectives simple military math says so. See below: From Grozny to Aleppo to Ukraine, Russia meets resistance with more firepower https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60631433

Good piece from MSNBC….I’m shocked they could actually write something that might contradict the prevailing narrative/views of their audience. In zero sum journalism,as it exists today, telling your audience things they might not like to hear risks them all too easily changing channel/website. Geography is destiny……& regardless of the buffer zone theory of European security architecture being somewhat contrived by policy wonks & academics ….……simple common sense says in life that wherever possible we should try to have good relations with our neighbors…..pivoting as Ukraine did so strongly to the US/EU while taking such a hardline with the Russian’s was naive in the extreme, especially given the ethno-demography in West Ukraine………I think a mature & pragmatic political leadership in Ukraine, could have in a sense played both the Russians & the EU/USA (for aid, for economic development etc etc.) which could have been to the benefit of the Ukrainian people and the economy. Ukraine fell for the pretty girl from the West batting its eye lashes at it (who lets face it high tails it at the first sign of real trouble). We’ll never know or indeed we might find out when whatever is left of Ukraine emerges from the Ashes they might have learned this lesson…….….that geography is destiny & pragmatic realism (not idealism) is in the best interest of Ukraine in the long term when it sits with the EU/NATO to the West and Russia to East. One example you dont need to join the EU (& piss of Russia) to enjoy its economic benefits (ask the UK/Switzerland) - you sign a Free Trade Agreement (FTA).

We in the West will keep sending weapons and encouragement and instagram/twitter likes to Ukraine till every male between 16 & 60 is dead………Russia at a certain point will dispense with the boots on the ground & mechanized attack once the body bags heading back to Moscow become a PR problem domestically….and Putin will simply resort to carpet bombing & leveling the Ukrainian cities to the ground. This requires, what is happening right now, which is civilians to flee those cities to Western Ukraine or the EU leaving only soldiers/resistance fighters behind…..then he will level those cities. NATO/the west will watch on in horror but do nothing. Ukranian’s will return to whatever is left of their country and it will take decades to ‘get back’ to anywhere close to their level of prosperity they had prior to Feb 2022…..from Putin’s point of view it will be mission accomplished & Russian sovereignty & security will be restored & the NATO buffer restored & NATO expansion West finished for a generation. The USA will returns to where it’s security focus should be which is in Asia - not a side hustle freedom & democracy project in Eastern Europe that has turned into a boondoggle. Think, for a second, of the mental overhead in DC that has been consumed by Ukraine in the last 5 years…& for what strategic goal?…….it got the last president impeached , a former vice presidents Presidential campaign nearly got derailed cause his son was on the board of a gas company there & lost his laptop and now it’s going to completely bury the democrats in the Mid-terms & as @mcliu says it could change materially the EU political map in unexpected ways as inflations and millions of refugees flood into neighboring states. Its very sad but this is the way it plays out IMO barring any policy errors or missteps.

Listen we can talk all day about how we got here - it’s only useful in terms of what happens next. Forget the mad man theory - if he is mad it’s no use anyway in trying to predict what happens next. Lets presume for the purposes of an investment discussion, he’s rational. if he’s rational - I think the aim is to wreck Ukraine so that nobody can “have it” - West or East. Buffer restored & the West doesn’t poke the bear again as @Gregmal rightly says. He will have thought the West he may be a declining state but one that makes credible threats when it feels it’s sovereignty or sphere of influence is encroached upon (save it for another thread on whether you think he’s right or wrong). If the above is the case this is a regional conflict that ends in Ukraine in tatters and kind of frozen conflict. The two big errors I see are (1) that politicians in the US & EU, driven by public support for Zelinsky/Ukraine, to please their public put boots on the ground and get into a fight with a Putin/Russia who have way less to loose than we have….all Vladimir’s nightmares of being the Tzar in charge when Russia itself collapsed to Western forces would appear before his eyes and we aren’t in Kansas anymore (2) Ukrainian forces in an attempt to draw the West into the fight concoct some circumstance to precipitate an entry by NATO. For example steal some Russian weaponry & launch it at Poland. Why wouldn’t they? They would argue they’ve spent the last 10 years being told by NATO/USA/EU that they ‘stand’ with the Ukrainian people and democracy & freedom……but have found out everyone is an idealist till they get punched in the face….and now nobody is showing up to help at the darkest hour…..we send our sympathies & money & weapons….and do everything to help, short of helping.

Of course I do - but there is I’m afraid an element of wishful thinking when people believe Putin to be in mortal jeopardy and I think they skew the probabilities in their own mind when thinking about it

Perhaps but from a very very very very low base All Kremlinologists (who were spectacularly wrong before as basically none of them foresaw the USSR implode).....point to Putin having an almost perfect strangle hold on all the institutions & levers of power that matter in Russia

Given this is a geopolitcal event driving equity values everywhere right now - it deserves its own thread on an investing forum. I'll start it off (stolen from a post i did in a Taiwan thread): The Ukraine invasion at a base level is about a petro-dollar economy, in the age of decarbonization, that is strategically weak already but for sure to be weaker still in decades.......... re-asserting a buffer zone (Ukraine & Belarus) that was laid down after the fall of the USSR, implicitly blessed by the USA and the West as being strategically important for Russian security in the age of the EU/NATO.......I say these things not to condone what Putin is doing, he's a monster and pig........but he is currently acting rationally for someone who's alternative to be being in the office, is being dead......and was watching over the years the EU/NATO/USA moving further & further East into the agreed "NATO/Russia buffer zone" of Ukraine with overtures around them joining NATO etc. etc. Nobody likes to say it - but Ukraine's role in life & in European peace and security (& indeed global peace & security) is/was to straddle the East & West while making the strategically weaker partner feel safe that they had some kind of buffer zone...Ukraine is/was a pawn in the balance of powers equilibrium game (ala Kissinger) that has kept Europe peaceful now for 75+ years. The mistake was to encourage Ukraine to divert itself so completely towards pleasing or 'joining' the West & giving them some false sense that we would ACTUALLY support them in a conflict against Russia.....which in turn hardened their political stance in regard to Ukranian-Russian relations & negotiations in regards to Eastern Ukraine....this aggressive pivot to the West was encouraged by the EU/USA and it shouldn't have been. The end game for Vladmir IMO is to completely WRECK Ukraine over the next few weeks and months and then leave......such that whatever is left wont be joining ANYTHING anytime soon that might threaten Russian security........and Putin in 20 years time will die in the Kremlin Palace surrounded by friends, families and ass kissers with Russia's borders exactly as they were when he assumed power. It's all a tyrant dictator in a strategically weak and weakening position could wish for.

Ok lets take a step back here - two of those on your list of three (Russia, Iran).....are not on any expansionist trail, they dont have capacity to be truly expansionist in any real sense of the word even if they wanted to be.....China YES but not yet.........Russia/iran maybe bits of land or here there but come on.....quite the opposite everything they do is in regard to basic survival of the regime and their borders as currently constructed.....The Ukraine invasion at a base level is about a petro-dollar economy, in the age of decarbonization, that is strategically weak already but for sure to be weaker still in decades.......... re-asserting a buffer zone (Ukraine & Belarus) that was laid down after the fall of the USSR, implicitly blessed by the USA and the West as being strategically important for Russian security in the age of the EU/NATO.......I say these things not to condone what Putin is doing, he's a monster and pig........but he is currently acting rationally for someone who's alternative to be being in the office, is being dead......and was watching over the years the EU/NATO/USA moving further & further West into the agreed "NATO/Russia buffer zone" of Ukraine with overtures around them joining NATO etc. etc. Nobody likes to say it - but Ukraine's role in life & in European peace and security (& indeed global peace & security) is/was to straddle the East & West while making the strategically weaker partner feel safe that they had some kind of buffer zone...Ukraine is/was a pawn in the balance of powers equilibrium game (ala Kissinger) that has kept Europe peaceful now for 75+ years until now.... The mistake was to encourage Ukraine to divert itself so completely towards pleasing or 'joining' the West & giving them some false sense that we would ACTUALLY support them in a conflict against Russia.....which in turn hardened their political stance in regard to Ukranian-Russian relations & negotitions in regards to Western Ukraine....this pivot to the West encouraged by the EU/USA was wrong IMO. The end game for Vladmir IMO is to completely WRECK Ukraine over the next few weeks and months and then leave......such that whatever is left wont be joining ANYTHING anytime soon that might threaten Russian security........and Putin in 20 years time will die in the Kremlin Palace surrounded by friends, families and ass kissers with Russia's borders exactly as they were when he assumed power. Its all a tyrant dictator in a strategically weak and weakening position could wish for and he's going to see to it that it happens and this is play.

Nice to see Medici mentioned. My blockchain/crytpo-esque investment (as small as it is) are invested in tZero….TZROP security tokens to be exact…..if there is any there there in this space…..tZero’s ATS is going to be the destination where legitimate tokens / NFT’s have to go ‘on exchange” if SEC ever gets it finger out and starts bashing heads (and it should). The level of securities fraud being permitted out in the daylight hasn’t existed since the ‘blue sky securities’ of the 1920’s…..as a I think Charlie Munger would say you can’t run a coherent civilization with so much fraud happening in plain sight……….it gnaws away at the social contract. My two cents.

rings true to me from my own personal/professional life…..

Cheers

see this mentioned alot - dont see an investment idea thread....could be worth starting one...... any write ups you could point me towards that nail the essense of the thesis.....have to say a nicotine/tobacco company thats growing volumes like SWMA are has to catch your eye.....any thoughts on spin dynamics of the cigar biz later this year....simplifies the smokeless nicotine remain co company story I presume?

Sold MSGE Dec 22 $50 Strike Puts for $4.20 a contract......selling CAT insurance on the worlds greatest arena feels like good insurance underwriting to me.....I'll need to text Prem or Ajit later to double check

Market calls are useless - buy cash flowing assets with durable business models & at valuations that are not completley out of line with long run median multiples, hold them and you’ll be rewarded over time…….simple to say perhaps and harder to do for some.

My two cents and investment theme...........2022 is the year when the Chinese economy comes off the skids IMO.......three convergent forces will in the next 18 months ensure that China will print negative GDP numbers or maybe the Chinese juiced up number equivalent of negative say +1.x%! Which we all know will mean they are in recession. Three reasons: PROPERTY..... negative wealth effects from property sector bubble bursting/deflating - Chinese already have high savings rates and are economically sensitive to perceived wealth destruction. Savings rates will sky rocket & the economy will slow. Watch the paradox of drift rip through the soceity as folks mark down their apartments they'd hoped to flipping to the next guy by now but cant. Useless concrete box apartments in Tier 3 cities are clearly not going to be transacting for 2019 prices anytime soon, if ever again. COVID Comes to China - Sinovac barely works against Delta, doesn't work at all against Omicron......there is almost zero base level COVID immunity in the Chinese population and Omicron is way TOO contagious to run a containment strategy successfully on a country of 1.4 billion people.....China will have a very rough COVID wave in 2022 with the inherent chaos it will cause to their economy Post-COVID in the West = China slowdown - the world stayed home in 2020 & 2021 and bought made in china "things" from Amazon........post COVID savings and disposable income will be directed to experiences in the West to the detriment of MIC producers (add in here strategic supply chain alterations which will see some activity diversified away from Chinese producers to Vietnam etc etc.) Put em all together a very rough 18 months for the worlds largest economy

Good idea: ATUS: -59% from 52-week high

yeah difference here vs. fund manager letters you referenced…..is Cathie has a publicly available ETF…two clicks away for the gullible…..an ETF who’s core constituency is novice retail investors….here comments and presentation of future 40%!! CAGR on CNBC, for those who care to watch it, would be what I’d expect to see at a Boca Raton investment conference where it’s free to attend but you pay to present….if you catch my drift.

Yep for real - and good reminder to me (all)….way more shit can happen than you can even imagine might happen…..its possible to spot a trend which has a few months life in it & ride it for a while, say for example the unraveling of nosebleed bonkers pricing on bananas securities where the future priced in required imagination beyond the realms of reality….….but beyond that its the deep blue sea & the devil

Saw that.…….Cathie has shown something which I think confirms her to be exactly what many had thought her to be ……..which is simply a lucky manager with the right strategy at the right time….….the lack of humility to go on TV and spout projected 40% annual returns for the next five years as a result of your fund being down nearly 50% is bonkers…….all this while the market is kicking your funds ass around……it felt like the emperor has no clothes moment and a desperate plea to the apes to send her more cash. Didnt sit well with me……and CNBC just let her say this crap uninterrupted. Unreal.

I know they say TWO times crazy is still crazy…..but Tesla at $1tn is already two times crazy ……feels like there isnt the collective optimism/craziness left to get it to $2tn……….

Starting to feel like Jeremy Grantham’s early 2021 warnings and into the summer are coming to pass……….the Microsoft’s and Apple’s haven’t been taken out the back and shot yet but I can hear the click clacking of the soldiers feet. I’m so tempted to sell some naked 2024 calls on Tesla at a $2trn valuation…the believers still seem to be buying them up….Elon being Man of the Year feels like the top of Musk-Mania

I had a somewhat bearish market viewpoint heading into Q4 (taper/4th delta wave hitting north east where I have some NYC reopening plays) so realizing some gains against some losses was a way to express that - its turned out to be somewhat right so far but lets see in a few more weeks…..also the things I’d sold had good reporting windows i.e. not reporting earnings inside my 31 day window so more likely just to ebb & flow with the beta. Finally some of the option positioning I outlined above, seems to from my research, allow me to participate in bearish/bullish moves in a somewhat similar way but without triggering wash sale rules given their OTM levels and/or contract expiry.