ValueArb

Crazy how fast its dropping, you couldn't even put in a limit order without it running away from you. Down below $36 now, Keith has lost hundreds of millions.

The first generation Bradley’s we gave Ukraine are obsolete by western military standards, but they are dominating against Russian troop carriers just as they did decades ago against Russian tanks in Iraq. We have a thousand more in storage that we will never use, all should be sent to Ukraine. https://apple.news/A-x76W-vnQIqW96l24GlXRg

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/06/gamestop-shares-jump-30percent-as-roaring-kitty-schedules-youtube-livestream-for-friday.html Poor guy can't even schedule a livestream without the stock popping 40%;)

So is now the fastest career ending decision a NYT columnist can make is not writing a critique of Democrats, or Republican, but Wordle?

Yea, both sections require showing intent to mislead/manipulate, which is going to be incredibly hard to show here. And what is the difference between buying shares/options on GME because you think the price is going to go up, and doing it because you think others will drive the price up in a mad rush after you reveal your purchase? Should Keith Gill be banned from owning GME because of how others react to his trades? Keith Gill clearly has the right to publicly say "I like the stock" or post memes to that effect while owning the stock, otherwise a good portion of our bill of rights is moot. The SEC loves pushing the envelope on what its allowed to regulate and ban under the law, so I would not put it past them trying to file a suit against Keith Gill to establish some novel legal theory giving them authority to regulate honest public statements by market participants. But I really doubt they will file it in an election year or that they'll win. https://www.americanbar.org/groups/business_law/resources/business-law-today/2014-october/section-10-b-litigation-the-current-landscape/#:~:text=Section 10(b) makes it,] may prescribe.” 15 U.S.C.

TLNE's tender offer can be read here. The big issue is that it has an out to cancel the tender if a small basket of energy stocks drops by 10%, which by my calculations is down 14% at the moment. https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/pw3zsirmdj2uwqv7s3mut/Talen-Offer-to-Purchase-Final.PDF?rlkey=ofbeviytkuw5q3ilkn9x7p1w3&e=1&st=ufkg6s2l&dl=0

Lets get this thread back on track. Starship Test 4 just completed, and looks like a huge success. The SuperHeavy booster was able to perform its maneuvers without losing any engines (and dodging a hurtling hot stage ring) to soft land in the Gulf, and Starship flew all the way through re-entry heating in a stable orientation (despite having at least one flap burned through and nearly disintegrated) to make it's landing flip and soft (?) land in the Indian Ocean. Test 4 was with an older prototype so its test goals were pretty basic, ie they didn't attempt engine relight in orbit, etc but looked like it nailed all of them.

The mental side of working out is just as important as the actual physical side. I wanted to get back to lifting forever, had a paid gym membership for years at a very nice club 5 minutes away and always had time to go, but never went and made excuses. I didn't like the atmosphere, ie some of the people there, I was hungry, my arm hurt, I didn't have enough time, etc. What was holding me back was me. It was far too easy to make excuses. I realized in the past I always had a workout partner so that i had to show up, but now my friends have moved away and I was trying to do it myself. So if you have someone (even your partner) who is also motivated to do similar things, make a commitment to them and make them commit to you, and you'll be way more consistent. And working out is all about consistency, if you keep doing it for years on end you'll end up having great results. I couldn't find a workout partner myself and was considering paying for a personal trainer to force me to lift consistently but they are so expensive! Then one night scrolling youtube I came across a video of a hilariously foul mouthed exercise scientist criticizing a video of the actress who plays Captain Marvel being trained for the role. He walked through why certain exercises were demonstrated to be effective, and others, far less so from actual exercise science studies. It got me hooked and I watched a bunch of his videos and learned a great deal. https://www.youtube.com/@RenaissancePeriodization/videos First, I solved my consistency problem by signing up for their app, where it generates workout routines for me so every day I know what I need to do in the weight-room and thats been all the motivation I need to get to the gym. Its $35/month but thats way cheaper than a personal trainer and I have a lot more confidence in the apps advice than a random red shirted kid the gym would give me. Secondly, you don't have to buy a membership, RP's youtube videos teach good core concepts for how to build muscle as quickly, safely and as time efficiently as possible. Don't be put off by the fact RP's coaches are all professional body builders, the goals are the same. Increase/maintain muscle mass (hypertrophy) with as little time in the gym or working out as possible. In general, they will advise you to use less weight, keep reps in the 5-30 range, lift smoothly and don't drop or jerk the weights, use full range of motion to stretch and keep the muscle under tension longer, and use negative resistance to maximize the hypertrophy effect. For example, for bicep curls you want to lift the weight up as far as possible until you practically can touch your shoulders, then slowly lower it down until your arm is entirely straight at the bottom, and repeat. Think about the muscle being under tension through that entire range of motion. My gym is full of lifters trying to lift ridiculous amounts, so heavy they can only do a fraction of the movement, which forces them to spend hours doing way more reps and sets to get the same results. Yesterday I saw an old couple doing exercises they had been probably assigned by a personal trainer, and on the preacher curl they'd only move a few inches. They looked miserable, and I knew their results were going to be limited and their time wasted. You don't need heavy weights to get jacked. Pushups and a couple dumbells for sets of 10-30 curls, shoulder presses, etc will work great if you just focus on good form, full range of motion and slowly lowering to really work the muscle.

As a 60 year old man thats my #1, probably the most important quote I've ever read for guiding how you live your life. That said I struggle mightily with poor and suboptimal habits, but I spend a lot more time thinking about them and I've eliminated the worst. The second piece of advice is always live beneath your means, and always save money. Again, something I've struggled with as I'm divorced and starting over with half of my portfolio in her name. I used to play high stakes poker with an 86 year old friend who was a brick-layer (huge strong hands and fingers) who owned properties through out Phoenix area, including a mall in downtown Sedona. He moved to Phoenix in his 20s to get out of the cold weather and economy of Detroit, Michigan, and worked mostly skilled labor jobs. Him and his wife would walk around and would bid whenever they saw a cheap property that they thought they could make something of. Just from saving as much of his wages as possible and having his canny wife work the properties they built an empire. Rest in peace, Mel. Last piece of advice is maintain an active lifestyle or workout regime, because once you let it go too far, its far harder to get your body back to a healthy when you are older. I was a college wrestler in excellent shape, 5'7" walking around at 145 lbs all lean muscle. By the time I was in my 40s I had gotten up to 170 lbs, and still ran a few times a month but otherwise didn't stick with any workout program long. When I got divorced at age 56 I weighed 190 lbs, and let depression run my weight up to my peak of 208 lbs. It even got scary during COVID when I realized that I was wheezing just walking around. So then I started to want to get back in shape, but could no longer run because of a torn tendon in my ankle. Surgery and rehab took forever, and stalled when my hip started to ache constantly. Turned out I needed a new hip, which I tried to put off unwisely because when I finally succumbed to it the surgery and rehab was a piece of cake and I could finally walk and ride my bike without pain. Only then did I really commit to working out every day, and trying to improve my terrible diet*. Mainly I've been doing hot yoga every day, mixed with regular weightlifting and occasional long bike rides. I lost about 25 lbs my first 9 months, then tore both tendons and labrum in my right shoulder 6 months ago, which also led to a swollen biceps tendon that aches regularly. At first I said, that's it, I can't keep working out until its fixed, its too hard. My doctor said surgery wasn't warranted, put me in PT for 6 weeks, and said the bicep will either heal or rupture, either way it will feel better after. He told me working out wasn't going to make things worse, so I went back to yoga every day, weighlifting before, and he was right. I think the shoulder and bicep are improving, and I'm back to only one rest day a week. Lots of ice and heat help too, and occasionally tylenol. After 15 months of hard hard work, I am now 174 lbs, with a lot more lean body mass (maybe 15% body fat?), so probably within 5-10 lbs of my ideal. My resting heart rate has dropped from 70 to 48, my waist has shrunk so much that when I buy smaller waisted shorts they are too loose within a few months. My trick is every day I think about skipping my workouts, and then I just tell myself I can always skip tomorrow, or tomorrow I might be forced to skip because of other conflicts so just get this one out of the way. On the days I dread going into the 100 degree heat of hot yoga or make excuses like maybe I don't feel great, I just tell myself to just go, you can always just lay on my mat but just go. So I always go and I always end up giving it my max effort. Just go and good things will happen. Figure out good workouts and physical activities that you enjoy enough to do regularly, and stick with them and when you reach my age you hopefully won't be deep in the hole that I dug myself and be forced to dig out at the same time your body starts falling apart. * One terrible dietary habit I developed that undid a great habit the kept me relatively slim for decades was McDonalds for breakfast. In my 20s-40s I almost always started the day with a healthy high fiber low calorie cereal, but when work was stressful and I needed to get up early and beat everyone into the office to get a key project done I'd just go through the Mcdonalds drive through with a big coke and eat it at my desk. That established a nasty correlation where I associated McD's breakfast with my most productive and happy work experiences. And as I aged whenever I felt the need to bear down and work hard, I start to jonze for McDonalds breakfast to kick off the process. So by the time I got divorced I was so depressed every morning that I just defaulted to picking up breakfast at McDs as it made me feel better. I'm on the way to breaking this chain, but its very tentative, any urgent appointment/work in the morning and suddenly a bowl of healthy cereal doesn't feel like its enough. So back to #1. Be careful what habits and feedback loops you create, they are very hard to undo.

As long as you take Beta Force you'll be fine.

Another top signal? From Matt Levine's column yesterday.

Hey, I understand that running a site isn't easy. We wouldn't have this community if you hadn't put the work in on it, so I'm grateful to you for doing it. Frankly whatever you charge is your choice and I'll never complain. If you jack it up to Bloomberg Terminal pricing levels then I am pretty sure I'd cancel, but would never throw a hissy fit about it, just always remember the site wistfully for all it gave me.

I am an almost four decade USAA member so never really paid much attention to my auto insurance rates. Maybe 10 or 15 years ago I checked out GEICO and it wasn't close, so I have always assumed USAA was cheapest I could ever get. Then last month I had to add my 19 year old daughter to my policy. She got her license a year ago but doesn't have a car and only drives my car with me coaching her to maintain/build her skills, and she's never got a ticket or had an accident. But I added her because I am about to buy her a car, and want her to be covered if she drives my car without me. $3,000 per 6 months, nearly triple. So what are you going to do? Young drivers are expensive and I full well know she's not a great driver yet. But I chafed at paying $500/month in insurance for a car costing me $500/month in payments, so I decided to checkout alternatives, the first was Progressive. $1,100 per 6 months. I was excited enough I immediately signed up with them and canceled USAA. But then curious, I checked out GEICO. Its rates appear to be slightly cheaper. Not enough for me to undo my switch to progressive but both should be eating USAA's lunch. I have no idea what happened to USAA. 5-10 years ago their service was still outstanding, today I'm stuck on hold for long periods to deal with bogus credit card charges every single month, then they cancel my cards and slow boat me replacements that take over a week. They could have charged me double Progressive/GEICO and I never would have even shopped.

I am not going to spend $24k a year for a Bloomberg terminal as I can't (so far) justify how it will increase my returns significantly over far cheaper and sometimes free alternatives. But a $50 lifetime payment to have intelligent people contest my reasoning and perspectives on multi thousand dollar purchases? That pays for itself on even a 4 figure portfolio. If I ever post a nasty message complaining about the price of COBF you'll know I've started working at McDonalds.

Hear, hear!!

Apparently Keith Gill got out of Gamestop with most of that $50M the first time around, as he's now claiming he bought a little over $100M of GME, and as I write this up at least $45M (over $30M this morning alone). I find it hard to believe he'd YOLO everything he owns on margin, so presumably he's increased his net worth to at least $100M before putting on this trade. There is apparently a rumour he made $200M on Solana?

Did he present any evidence other than Biden's out of context public statement?

Nope. Eventually Putin will fold or be deposed and his successor will find a face saving way out. Thats if Ukraine isn't able to mount an offensive to cut the rail lines into Crimea and force a panicked dash for the last ferries out by Russian forces in Crimea first. The Ukrainians deeply care about winning, Russians are just meat fodder. Better position after Russia's mass retreat from the gates of Kyiv? Are you joking? By your logic the Russians were in a worse position after retaking Stalingrad in WW2, given the massive losses it required. That Zelenskyy quote said nothing about NATO, it said he needed stronger security guarantees. You keep ducking the issue and have no answer for how Ukraine can be assured of its security. And only a putin simp would find NATO membership ridiculous given Poland, Estonia and Finland are members. Your response to a history of Russian genocides and their invasion of Ukraine is to blame Ukraine for not de-escalating? My comment said literally nothing about how Ukraine should respond, just pointed out how reluctant your failed diplomat was to condemn Russia's documented public atrocities and aggression. Again, this is in response to pointing out doofus diplomat refusing to use the word "evil" for documented russian atrocities and aggression. Are you even capable of having a rational honest conversation where you actually address what was said? You are deluded if you think Russians stand behind Putin willingly. Russia is a police state, and everyone who speaks up against him is rapidly imprisoned, if not murdered. You may believe that the Russian people are so lacking in moral character that they don't care about Russia's genocides and how its caused them to be perceived in the world, but I don't. All of the things Russians are hated for were initiated by its terrible governments and leaders, the same ones who've been oppressing them for hundreds of years back to when they were serfs.

So you post two different screeds from the same failed diplomat? Anyone who says this is being willfully obtuse about Putin's history of abiding by his agreements. When he talks about a "negotiated peace" without providing good strong arguments on why it won't be a temporary peace, how we can trust Putin, or acknowledging how untrustworthy Putin is, he's actively misleading his audience. A document from a negotiation forced upon Ukrainians in their darkest hour, with Russian troops surrounding Kyiv, when they still didn't know the extent of western support they'd receive, and written by a Ukrainian team that was alleged to include Russian double agents, that would allow Russia to keep territory they had seized in the war, and leave Ukraine nearly indefensible in any future invasion. And then the Bucha massacre became public right in the middle of negotiations. Zelenskyy rightly demanded more protections and Russia rejected them. Yet this lying "diplomat" doesn't even address those concerns, just pretends that in his fairy world filled with chocolate streams and gumdrop rain showers everyone would have been happy. Russia invaded Ukraine. It has performed numerous massacres such as a Bucha. It has targeted civilians with military weapons. If this donkey doesn't draw a good/evil line against those actions, he's an idiot. Seriously, he's so disingenous he's either a deluded pacifist or he's a paid FSB proxy. Russia has genocided tens of millions in the last century alone. Russian troops raped their way through Europe in WW2. They murdered millions in the cold war to keep half of Europe as their slaves. And then after the breakup of the USSR when the west spent hundreds of billions helping them and the former republics they impoverished, they became a dictatorship again. And kept killing and murdering political opponents across Europe and the world, until finally invading free Ukraine to murder and genocide tens of thousands more. And he's confused why Russians are hated? Our job is to support Ukraine to the hilt. It's the Ukrainians job to decide when peace negotiations are necessary.

Russia loves at drawing red lines. No aid for Ukraine or we might use nukes. If you give HIMARS to Ukraine we might use nukes. if you give Patriots to Ukraine we might use nukes. If you give ATACMS to Ukraine we are going to use nukes. If you give F-16s to Ukraine we are going to check our nukes to find out how many haven't been dissembled and sold for reactor fuel by kleptocrats and might use any that still work.

Unclear to me. Latest order included 48 “launch stations”, 644 missiles, and 12 latest radar systems. First (2018) order included 2 “batteries”. So maybe it’s 14 batteries total? https://www.defensenews.com/land/2023/06/29/us-state-dept-clears-15b-sale-of-missile-defense-system-for-poland/

Ukraine doesn't conscript anyone under the age of 25, it may not have as many troops as it would like but its not going to run out for years. It will just keep lowering the conscription age (it was 27 until recently). Nope. Russia knows they'll be subject to far more long range strikes and possibly direct intervention by NATO if they let the nuclear genie out of the bottle. Its the clearest way to motivate the west to massively increase support for Ukraine. Ukraine can't lose. Even if Russia pulled off a miracle break through that put all of Ukraine under their control, their proxy government will be quickly bled to ciollapse from relentless partisan attacks. Ukraine isn't full of pacifists like Germany is. All that remains for Russia in Ukraine is to bleed their forces and fertilize sunflowers. You are just advocating for surrendering all of Ukraine, because there is no peace treaty that Putin will sign that would truly guarantee Ukraines long term safety. Which at a minimum would require full NATO/EU membership along with full demilitarization of the Donbas and Crimea.

I've said we have at least a thousand Abrams and Bradleys and hundreds of F-16s in long term storage we should be providing Ukraine, along with more ATACMS with unitary warheads for deep strikes. Never did I say we need to send in NATO troops, which was your attempt to poison the well.

I wouldn't worry much. Any Russian incursion would be in Poland, and would end with Polish troops in Moscow within a month. Poland has purchased 32 F-35s, 48 F-16s, 48 Patriot batteries, 18 HIMARS launchers, 45 ATACMS launchers, nearly 400 Abrams tanks, 96 Apache helicopters, and 800 JASSM-ER cruise missiles, etc, etc. The Polish military is far stronger than Ukraine's was at the start of the war, with far more modern weapons than Ukraine has even today. Poland also has a deep institutional memory of the numerous historical genocides Russia inflicted upon them, and its well trained troops can't wait to run through the outdated, poorly lead Russian military like a hot knife through butter.

The classic Russian threat to escalate to nukes has been repeated over and over ad nauseum for decades. They've threatened it when the US started aiding Ukraine, when US decided to send HIMARS, when US decided to send ATACMS, when discussion of sending F-16s became public, etc, etc, etc. The Kremlin isn't going to do it for two reasons 1) They and their families will get incinerated. 2) They don't know how many of their nukes even work anymore. Al most every Russian sub missile test for decades has had failures. Its not likely getting any better with Putin's team of kleptocrats having their fingers deep in the military budgets. And their ABM systems are far worse than the Wests. No one should believe Putin. He's a proven liar who only wants "peace" to rebuild before re-invading. He'll never give they type of assurances that we can trust, so the only way to end the war is to eject Russia from Ukraine and Crimea.