Xerxes
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Posts posted by Xerxes
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We are overthinking this:
For all we know the Daily Journal Alibaba buys could be closing of his very successful shorts on the name as he rode it down from $317 to where it is today. The reason they appear as long position, is because the shorts were initiated against HK 9988, so you don't see it as they are not need to be disclosed by SEC, but in grand scheme of things they are offsetting each other, with the net between them left as profit.
On a more positive side, this episode got to be ammunition for finance/investment podcast re-hashing it over and over again.
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8 minutes ago, StubbleJumper said:
I am mostly happy with out it played out, except that I sold some BRK to make space to buy FFH to exploit the tender. So, I made ~10% on the FFH, but in the meantime BRK has skyrocketed ~10% over the past month! After repurchasing the BRK shares with my tender proceeds, I haven't made much money on that portion of my tender. I'd have been in the same position, more or less, if I had just sat on my ass!
That is why i never bother with these things.
At least you got your core FFH / BRK position that is benefitting from all this, if not the actual trade in isolation.
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well said Dazel, and happy new year
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Found this to be pretty funny with Munger at the end of the clip.
Was looking for some background on their investment in silver back in the late 90s, found this.
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Happy New Year All !!
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On 12/25/2021 at 10:21 AM, Spekulatius said:
I enjoyed “Don’t look up !“ much more than the middling reviews indicate.
“The power of the Dog” is more a drama than a western, but the cast, storytelling and setting are outstanding.
Both were AMAZING ...
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I did calculation in about 40 min or so, hopefully no mistakes.
Not exactly market beating against S&P500 .. but I suppose there is no price for all the stuff that I am learning.
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TFSA = 11% (i.e. most speculative positions are located here, which deflated in Q4)
RRSP = 23%
TFSA/RRSP Combined = 20% (i.e. RRSP is much larger than TFSA, so it pulled up the average)
Crypto = 46% (i.e. due to Ethereum mostly)
TFSA/RRSP Combined + Crypto = 22% (i.e. small 200 basis lift as Crypto is a small allocation)
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I could not find a thread for this, so just created one. If anyone has any ideas/take on this topic please park it over here in this thread.
There are two platforms that i could find on this topic: (Vinovest.co) and Cult Wine, where they keep custody of the goods on your behalf etc. If anyone has used them, please drop a note,
Looking for that alternative asset that is not securitized as a diversification tool (aside real-estate and crypto)
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On 12/26/2021 at 11:56 AM, StubbleJumper said:
I have the opposite problem. I specifically bought a bit more than 500 shares for the purpose of tendering them. It looks like I'll make a gain of about 10% on the shares that I tendered, but through proration, I'll end up holding 10% of those shares to the new year. So, in rough terms, I will be getting all of my original investment back in cash over the next week or 10 days, and then I'll have 50-ish shares for free. So I will need to decide whether I keep them or dump them. I'll probably dump them after the Q1 results are released, and hopefully will get US$500 including the divvy which will likely be announced in the next few days....
I only wish that I had gone to a greater effort to rearrange my tax-advantaged accounts!
SJ
well done sir, you and other helped Prem vacuum up 2 million shares.
And are componsated acoordingly.
Happy Holidays
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23,017,184 outstanding shares (pre-Allied World purchase)
26,100,817 outstanding shares (post-Allied World purchase)
24,986,170 common + 1,548,000 multiple voting shares => As of 12/24/2021 press release
Unsure, if the outstanding share # from 2016 and 2017 include the multiple voting shares or not. I believe they are. Either way, suffice to say that a good chunk of stock dilution used to fund the Allied World purchase has been bought back below where it was issued. I believe those were issued at above BV and 2 million of those (2/3 of the lot) were bought back at 0.8-0.9 or so.
Hell, maybe Bloomstran can write a chapter, how FFH strategically issued overvalued stock at close to BV and bought them off below BV.
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I have not tendered anything in my RRSP
But to think of it i should have bought additional ones in my TFSA for that sole purpose only, but was somewhat fully vested there and didnt want the tax headache of outside TFSA.
I will probably tender my FIH if there is a second opportunity. Nothing to do with the sub-holdings that make up the NAV (which I like), rather the fact that it seems to me the only entity that benefits from FIH's situation is FFH.
Anyone wanting to have a generic India exposure are better served buying an India-specific MSCI index. If there is a desire to have a specific exposure that can be bought directly from India's stock exchange, and even the airport at some point will be publicly traded. So what purpose or mission objective is FIH catering too? surely its mission objective is not to create an illiquid stock so that it parent company can benefit indirectly through increase ownership. But that is where we are now, even if that was not the intent.
it is worth asking, is there precedence where the fees could now be changed or slightly changed to reward FFH to narrowing the discount. Not in their direct benefit, but then again was the mission objective of FIH to create and an illiquid stock with a perma-discount or have a BIP/BEP like structure, where it would pull that incremental dollar looking for exposure to India to itself.
Of course, all that could change, if the model changes to something other than a holding company with a NAV. It is just hard to see the catalyst, which was not the case for FFH proper.
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Happy Holidays all,
Best wishes to everyone and their loved ones
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I heard a wiseman say on Bloomberg Radio that S&P500, all it is, it's a tracker on Fed's balance sheet.
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No worries folks. You will get the full list of growthy-tech @ their 52-weeks lows in Fairfax 2021's Police Report (sorry I mean letter to FFH shareholders) coming out in Feb 2022.
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Great move there TCC
That said, i think FIH is a bit of a different beast than FFH. It is hard to see FIH discount ever close meaningfully (unless something happens transactionally; best hope is that BV inches higher and pulls its MV kicking and screaming higher inch by inch even with its yawning gap), but it is not hard to see FFH discount to eventually collapse (especially in a higher rate environment) -
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Q3: $80 million
Q2: $268 million (is that right !)
Q1: $87 million
2020: $10 million
2019: $47 million
2018: $235 million
2017: $84 million (loss)
2016: $81 million (loss)
Not exactly the smoothest earning history. Perhaps there has been one-time losses here and there pre-pandemic, don't know the year to year history. Is it just the operating leverage kicking in with the surge in the base commodity prices dropping into the bottom line faster than they can buyback shares in the 'good years'. I think if we take $150 million per annum as an estimate, that is good enough.
We can ignore the share-buy back that is increasing FFH' stake overtime, and just take 40% of that $150 million as an approximation.
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On 11/29/2021 at 4:18 PM, Thrifty3000 said:
I didn't include it because Resolute happens to be pretty far down the list in terms of carrying value. I'll be happy to edit my post and add Resolute's or any others' look through earnings that anyone wants to toss out.
I do prefer normal or mid-cycle earnings for cyclical investments.
Do you have any sense of what Resolute's "normal," mid-cycle, earnings might look like? (I know the TTM earnings have been pretty nuts.)
Hi
sorry for forgetting to answer. I suppose one way to see it is that the bulls are right going forward, thus the mid-cycle point would be today's snapshot, which is the average of the previous bad 5 years and forward good 5 years.
I think the concept of mid-cycle point is more relevant when the cycle is short-medium term. If this is a structural secular shift, than it is less relevant.
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Fairfax India is getting Tapered-Tantrumed
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I realize this may not be accurate but a quick Google search about his land ownership has his overall wealth estimate. So although a $1.8 billion invested into Liberty medias is a good chunk of his overall wealth, but those are balanced against large ownership of hard assets :
”Malone owns 2.2 million acres across several different states including Maine, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Texas, Wyoming, Maryland, and Colorado. He has a net worth of $9 billion.Aug 28, 2020”
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here is a podcast on KW.
I haven't listened to it, but thought folks here might find it interesting.
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Any reason why Resolute is not shown in the your numbers.
It has a higher dollar earning than Atlas this past quarter and seemed to be a significant contributor at least in the short term.
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I think you are referring to the three-way transaction with Blackstone and LSE for Reuters' analytic division ?
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And yet Tesla is up who knows how much, since he added a slide on it in his AGM in April 2021, shown below. And probably the dollar value market capitalization created by Tesla during the same period that you alluded was more than 30% combined lost on PTON,SHOP,ZM,PINS, and perhaps dare I say, many times over.
Bottom line no one knows anything.
I like this new Fairfax that only talks about how outrageously overvalued these companies are as oppose to go around and act like Valuation Policeman by shorting it.
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Why is it that it is fashionable to complain how complex Fairfax Financial is BUT it is not fashionable to complain about the complexity the John Malone' constellation fiefdoms. (i.e. don't you get it, he is the most tax-efficient investor)(i.e. you are not sophisticated enough to understand the Malone' canvas)
Why is it ok to complain about Fairfax Financial lack of performance in the past 5 years BUT it it not ok to complain about Liberty's fiefdoms performance in the past 5 years (which ones are we suppose to look at anyways to gauge performance, i am lost)
Why is it ok to complain about Brookfield treatment of minority shareholders (the dreaded BAM), BUT it it not ok to complain about Liberty's fiefdoms treatment of minority shareholders.
Just some high level observation, i am not a Liberty expert and hope not offending any hardcore fans here.
EDIT: That said, I agree that the Malone fiefdoms needs its own sub-section (aka Church of Malone) in par with Berkshire and Fairfax, but not my call
Asset Prices Are Climbing As Debt Soars
in General Discussion
Posted · Edited by Xerxes
Agreed with the comment that the next one will rarely looks the same. Think of all the TV commentary, majority of which saw mid-March/April 2020 as the first leg (Ala Lehman Oct 2008) with the real bottom in March 2009. Or all the value investors that sat on their hands because it needs to play out like the dot.com right away in 2020. As oppose to see it as a 1987 like drawdown. To her credit, Kathie was one of the ones that made the bold case for the latter.
I always tell my friend, just like in the morning you would never know that you will have a bad car accident that day, you are not going to see the drawdown come in and that we had only three since the mid-1980s. =>. 1987, 2008 and 2020.
I don’t not include Dot.com since in my book it was the market rolling over 2 years. Just one big bear market and not a drawdown that takes everything down (including the kitchen sink)