Xerxes
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Posts posted by Xerxes
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I meant “wheat” the commodity. not financial markets.
A good quarter of global wheat production is from Ukraine and Russia. -
So much talk of Ukraine impact on the market here in this thread, yet no one is talking about its potential impact on wheat
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I need to buy printer ink for the occasion. I ran out.
it is uncivilized (in my opinion) to read the letter on screen.
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2 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:
Growing cross border shelling has gone on for 2-days now, and the news has been hidden behind the Olympics. Invasion delayed because the big buyer of Russian doesn't want an upstaging of the big event they are hosting - invade while the games are on, and the deal is off? Ukrainian officials talking 'soothingly' with the assistance of a AK-47 at their head?
Tanks cross the border, for whatever reason, and WTI very quickly goes > $100. And if they don't take Kyiv by nightfall on day-1, those tanks die - by the hundreds.
SD
There is a narrow window before the spring thaw. But really who knows. Even foreign minister Lavrov doesn’t know what will be Putin’ final call -
4 hours ago, Gregmal said:
Got gold?
holding Barrick for a year now.
good boost even if it is unrealized. -
7 hours ago, CorpRaider said:
Man I might have to get HBO back for that.
perhaps this could do in the meantime. -
Maybe there was a specific advantage for the two sellers to transact through a third-party (Fairfax) than a buyback through FIH.
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Great news !
on a different note, Prem need to revise his shareholder letter to add in Shopify’ 18% plunge earlier today.
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37 minutes ago, cubsfan said:
Like one of the smart guys here said - as long as Putin can get his $100 Oil, he'll be happy.
i actually disagree with that.
Russian oil industry cost structure is ruble based, therefore there is an upper limit to that sweet spot before their cost starts to go up, re-start to compress their margins. Inversely the same helps them to buffer their margin in a downturn. I.e their cost goes down as the value of ruble depreciates with a falling oil price.
Saudi Arabia doesn’t have that since their currency is dollar-pegged. So they really get hurt in a downturn but benefit immensely in an upside as their cost stays pinned against the dollar.
lastly, big oil producers (contrary to popular belief) prefer fair price instead of high price, as “demand destruction” and “alternatives” plays a role in their calculus.
smaller marginal oil producers like high prices as their “vision” is as short term as their capacity to produce.
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12 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:
The Last Duel is on HBO+, not Disney+. Definitely not a Disney movie either (I liked it).
it is on Disney+. That is where I saw it.
part of the 20th Century Fox library and movie pipeline that Iger acquired. That is how it ended up there. I hope to see House of Gucci also on Disney+ soon.
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you can either be long against 5,000 years of human history that involve rape, pillage, war, famine but also brought with it progress, peace, innovation, cures … or be short against it … betting that human nature is different that what it historically shown itself to be.
I said this before in a different thread. We (most of us) are lucky (geographically) be living in North America with two vast oceans protecting us. But it does mean, however, that we do tend to do the espresso-sipping “ivory tower” thing.
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I recommend The Last Dual by Riddly Scott (or is it duel). Always mixing up.
available on Disney+
the movie has a really fun historical format that I think should be used more often.
on different note.
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Added to RTX and more importantly looks like Joey Levin added to MGM few days ago. They own now 14% of the company.
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I would also recommend this. A lot of good content on commercial and aerospace market. You can skip the more technical episodes and focus on the business/market related episodes.
I am subscribed to the print version of Aviation Week, for more than 10 years now. Great content.
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Find it hilarious to see Americans opining on Russia’s geopolitical chessplay.
Crimea needs to go back to the Khaghans of the Golden Horde. Sadly that entity no longer exists.
aren’t these discussions ought to be in the Political section ? So that we don’t have to see/hear people’ skewed biases all the time.
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Here is a great podcast on aerospace & defense that I usually follow
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nothing to add on the conference call aside the question/comment by the Leucadia analyst, who seem to indicate that he actually personally own FFH shares. In the Q3 call, the same analyst mentioned that he also owns Atlas. I know they are the same person since they in both times comments were made about dividend increase.
how could a sell-side analyst have personal ownership of the stock or associated stock (Atlas)??
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On 2/14/2021 at 5:21 PM, Xerxes said:
Time to update the
se tables:
REALIZED LONGS
2011: $703 million (equity) + $424 million (bond)
2012: $470 million (equity) + $566 million (bond)
2013: $1,324 million (equity) + $65 million (bond)
2014: $596 million (equity) + $103 million (bond)
2015: $818 million (equity) + $26 million (bond)
2016: ($184) million (equity) + $648 million (bond)
2017: $200 million (equity) + $419 million (bond)
2018: $1,326 million (equity) + $106 million (bond)
2019: $792 million (equity) + ($55) million (bond)
2020: $392 million (equity) + ($102) million (bond)
2021: $992 million (equity) + $338 million (bond)
REALIZED SHORTS
2011: zero
2012: $6.3 million
2013: ($1.350) billion
2014: $13 million
2015: $126 million
2016: ($2.634) billion
2017: ($553) million (almost all of it in Q4 2017!)
2018: ($248) million
2019: ($20.7) million
2020: ($311+$542*) million *included Other which I believe are the TRS
2021: missed a lot could-have-been shorts (error of omission !!)
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To me hyperinflation is when the moment you get a paycheck you need to spend it either on food or other assets, because your paycheck depreciates faster than the food that it buys does. Are we there, not one bit.
Six-nine months out for now, things could look very different.
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7 hours ago, Parsad said:
It's pretty good...more of a conventional western...interesting for the hardcore Yellowstone fans to understand the backstory. Doesn't have the dirty, twisted, scene-chewing script that Kelly Reilly (Beth Dutton) gets to deliver every week. I can't believe she hasn't won any award nominations yet. Cheers!
May I ask how are you watching 666 or 1883 ?
Paramount+ is available in BC ?
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You are stuck on a desert island, you can only read one report (and only one), and your are cut off from all media sources, which one will be:
(1) Buffett' annual letter (2) Watsa's annual letter or (3) Markel's
LOL
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Enjoy !!
There is also Yellowstone prequal. It is called "1883".
Have not seen it, but it powering fast through its first season.
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Are we talking returns or risk-adjusted returns.
If the latter, Berkshire. Easy !
If the former, there in lies the enigma
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Cheers.
For me, those 'reminder' are always good, I think, so that one sticks (& continues to stick) to the good stuff (me anyways).
A counterbalance, if you will, to my daily noisy consumption of Bloomberg and CNBC.
Have We Hit The Top?
in General Discussion
Posted · Edited by Xerxes
My uneducated guess is the inflationary pressure that we feel in North America & Europe (because we cannot get our gadgets fast enough) will be felt more globally at the most basic level. Egypt I think (for instance) is one of the largest importer of wheat. As well as so many other countries.
as far as the stock market (besides the “news” impact when it happens). Who knows … this should be tailwind for defence industry but headwinds for others
I tend to see war and pandemic in having the same impact (I.e need to build inventory, ration, duplicating infrastructure thus inflationary)