Xerxes
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Posts posted by Xerxes
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2 hours ago, ValueArb said:
I didn't watch the whole video, so I jumped to the wrong conclusion that you thought it was outrageous because he was blowing up a Mosque.
No, filming operations isn't acceptable from several perspectives. First, it damages operational security and can be used by the enemy to plan counter-tactics and strategies. I would hope that the IDF at least approved release of the video, that soldiers aren't randomly posting videos.
That said, while releasing video of a demolition might serve some purpose, like the IDF wants to send a message? But its not a positive message, and especially not blowing up a mosque. The core reasons for the conflict is religious, no reason to intentionally stir up emotions more.
I'm not in the "Israel can do no wrong" camp, I'm in the "Israel is better than their enemies" and fully expect them to live up to it. I think Israel itself is a borderline Theocracy, and thats part of the problem. I look forward to the end of the war hoping that Israel can come to grips with the religious fundamentalists and settlers in their own country that helped fuel the conflicts with Palestinians. And I look forward to Bibi's arrest and imprisonment, not for war crimes, but for corruption.
Thanks ValueArb
I know it is tough, but IDF is under the microscope with international community. Fairness has nothing to do with it. It is what it is. Nothing is fair in life.
At the best, they can take a page from Petraeus’ book, but at the minimum they should get the optics right.
And as soldiers, they can do better. To me anyways serving one’ country means something and that’ the image that I have in my mind when I think of soldiers.
Not to forget that the founders of ISIS came out of Al-Gharib prison camp, for them Al-Qaeda was too soft. We don’t want a cesspool in Gaza.
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So much nonsense knitted together by AI. Apparently Chubb is Canadian -
12 minutes ago, ValueArb said:
The main war crime that Putin committed was the invasion of Ukraine, so in an imaginary world where Ukraine started the war that wouldn't have been a crime. How much of the other Russian war crimes we can show that Putin directly ordered or is responsible for I have no idea. Every military force commits crimes at some level.
No idea. Not sure why blowing up a Mosque that was being used as a base for military operations against the IDF would be a crime, or wrong in any way.
DudeI couldn’t care less what he blew up (it is war, things blow up)
I couldn’t get the context from this short video, not sure how you got that full context, in any case that was not the point of the comment.
Is that type of behaviour by soldiers (filming themselves destroying things) acceptable?
Given your answer just above, it seems to be ok with you.
Either that or you just happen to be in the “Israel can do no wrong” and “I will not offend them openly” camp.
Anyways. Not going to waste your time any further. Thanks for the chat. -
1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said:
Have to think the helicopter crash wasn't an accident; it's 2024, this level of dignitary fly only with the best pilots, in suitably modified craft, and with all kinds of 'other' support. May-18, Gantz demands a plan for post Gaza by Jun-08 or he quits (bringing down the government); about the same time, Netanyahu is issued an international arrest warrant; executable as soon as he is no longer in government. And two days later a helicopter auspiciously flies into a mountain, killing all on board? perhaps with a little help from some friends?
The US built Gaza floating pier is now complete, and the aid trucks have begun rolling. Driving the population out of Gaza has failed; and it is a simple matter to replace the drivers and distribution with blue-helmets. It would appear that Gaza is pretty much done; and that even Gantz can see that. https://ca.news.yahoo.com/aid-flows-gaza-u-military-155901057.html
It would seem that Netanyahu himself is perhaps the only person in the world gifted enough to make MBS look good.
https://www.ibtimes.com.au/us-envoy-touts-potential-israel-saudi-deal-netanyahu-talks-1848158
Of course oil prices will rise on this, but one has to hope that the saner heads will prevail. Have to think that US 'protection from prosecution' in return for an 'exile' will on the table; and that the precedent will be extended to MBS when it becomes his time.
SD
Iran and Israel are not in the best terms. Surely, an enemy of Iran will not help its people by removing an highly incompetent manager of economy.
If there was foul play involved, it would be from factions of IRGC and other interest group within the country, gearing up for the power play that will come soon at the supreme leader level.
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As an example, Qasem Suleimni was incredibly capable manager, proconsul, military leader all rolled into one. He had to go. You live by the sword, you die by the sword.
Incompetent fools like Raisi, enemies of Iran wouldn’t mind at all.
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7 minutes ago, cubsfan said:
Yeah, lots of conspiracy theories going around. We all know what Mossad is capable of...or the USA for that matter.
The best I've seen is the pilot was a Mossad agent named Eli Copter. Certainly to be expected from Israel haters. Sure to stir up the Arab world against Israel.
But, the world is rid of one more rat - President Raisi was responsible for the executions of thousands of political prisoners - estimates range from 3000 to 30000 - and they went on for months. Who can forget the sights of hundreds of bodies hanging from cranes all over Iran in the 1980's.
So whether it was Mossad or the incompetence of Iranian pilots/mechanics - who cares.
very well said -
34 minutes ago, ValueArb said:
Depends upon if he wins the war and stays in power or not. Lemay himself said if the Allies had lost he'd have been executed for war crimes. The allies deliberately targeted civilian areas to reduce the Axis economic production capacity and morale. Dresden and Tokyo are the most obvious examples.
In the case of Israel I see them attempting to be very selective in the targets they attack, even though Hamas puts its military assets directly in civilian areas including hospitals to try to shield them. Any military position should be fair game, regardless of how many civilians are nearby, and that would still be vastly superior morally to the carpet bombing the Allies inflicted in WW2.
At the beginning of the conflict IDF intelligence was making phone calls to Palestinian civilians to warn them that an attack was inbound for military positions in their apartment buildings, and giving them time to warn neighbors and evacuate. Not sure if they are still doing that, as it had to have lost them targets and cost Israeli lives, but it is just one in a long list of examples that shows the IDF is attempting to reduce civilian casualties as much as possible.
While they should always try to reduce civilian casualties they should never attempt to "minimize" them. That just keeps Hamas operating longer and the war going longer. The only one would can end the civilian deaths is Hamas, by surrendering and signing a peace agreement that recognizes Israels right to exist. Any peace short of that just restarts the rocket attacks within a few months turning Palestinians into human shields again.
I get that the outcome of the war, will allow the winning side to write whatever it wants. The more total is the victory, the more total will be the essay. Your WW2 example is case in point.
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But that was not the question. I am looking directly at another conflict happening in parallel to the Gaza War, and asking your opinion and not so much what will be in the history books.
What do YOU think ? Is changing what was triggering factor of the war in case of Ukraine, changes what you feel about Bakhmut, And all the devastation in the Donbas etc.————
if you had to guess what proportion of IDF constituted the bad apples. (See video)
1% , 2% etc or more
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15 minutes ago, ValueArb said:
If Bibi is a war criminal, then so were Bomber Harris, Curtis Lemay, Churchill, FDR and Truman.
So that we are clearly baselining ourselves:if the war between Russian and Ukraine started with an Ukrainian terrorist attack on proper Russian soil by Zelensky in 2022, and that Putin finally got an excuses for his imperial aspirations and went in like hell and did the exact same nasty thing that he is doing now,
would Putin be war criminal or not ?
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17 minutes ago, Luca said:
EXCLUSIVE: ICC seeks arrest warrants against Sinwar and Netanyahu for war crimes over October 7 attack and Gaza war
Good. Lots of great news this morning.
Call a spade a spade.
Both psychopaths are cut from the same cloths. They make good company with Vladimir Putin.
All optics, but I’ll take it.
I would put Raisi there as well (given that he oversaw massive protest crackdown in Iran in 2022-22), fortunately for the rest of us, he was stupid enough to fly his helicopter into the fog in the mountainous region in Azerbaijan. He “CTRL-ALT-DEL” himself.
To think of it, he was also president when the IRGC shutdown the airliner, and did his best to harass the family of the survivors.
Poetic justice. He went out the exact same way.
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9 hours ago, boilermaker75 said:
Shetland is great. I have only seen the first 6 seasons. So it has held up without Douglas Henshall?
Actually the last season with Douglas was so-so, but season 8 is great. Superb plot -
The COIN guy gets it right !!
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i know you are a big LOTR fan
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HBO has been exemplary in their content pipeline. See below for Dune
Who the hell needs garbage content from Netflix when you have premium content being created by HBO and Walt Disney.
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On 5/14/2024 at 8:16 PM, Viking said:
I think this is a great point. Especially if Fairfax wants to remain primarily a P/C insurer (and not morph into a conglomerate). Aggressively buying back undervalued shares as the hard market ends is such a good decision/use of excess capital.
It also means Fairfax/Prem is not focussed on empire building. Fairfax is instead clearly focussed on making decisions that build long term shareholder value. Very encouraging.
Home Depot puts out sometimes +40% ROE, given its fully shrunk equity … thanks to the very large historical capital return.
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Every time Buffett buys a big name, I find AFTER the fact it was a under 15 P/E
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23 hours ago, yesman182 said:
I thought it was interesting that Thomas Russo sold 12% of Berkshire.
now THAT is news ! -
On 5/14/2024 at 12:11 PM, Saluki said:
The quarterly filings are starting to come in and should all be here by tomorrow. https://www.dataroma.com/m/home.php
Does anyone see any interesting buys/sells from people?
I'll start, it looks like Chuck Akre trimmed some of his American Tower, which he is known for. In an interview I heard him say that a analyst told him that X was the next American Tower and he cut him off and said "son, American Tower is the next American Tower!".
He also bought some UBER, along with Tom Russo and Tom Gayner, this quarter.
The analyst is the in fact the podcaster Bill Brewster.
he said it in one his podcast in a conversation he had with Akre.
That is unless, Akre said the exact same answer many times to the exact same question posed by others.
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13 hours ago, Eng12345 said:
Worth a listen if you got an extra hour but definitely not the best episode ever. What was notable was that as I listened the whole housing shortage thing that greg and others have been screaming from the rooftops finally hit me in the face...
After listening I think I'm going to look for some multifamily REITs to look into - I've always stayed away from REITs so I'd be open to some suggestions.
nothing posted as podcast recommendation -
A gentleman on Gabelli TV makes the case that this is potentially “Mitsubishi Financial”
note that it trades in the US, so part of SEC requirement for disclosure
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2 hours ago, Ulti said:
1- A two state solution in combination with moderate Arab nations ( Jordon, Saudi Arabia etc.) and Israel signing a defense pact as a deterent for Iran and its proxies.
to be fair, it is coalition, don’t think Bibi had much choice, if he want to keep his job. Defense pact is not an easy with his cabinet composition.
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To put it bluntly, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has put his country’s worst religious extremists in jail, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has put his country’s worst religious extremists in his cabinet
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/02/opinion/israel-saudi-arabia.html
Of course, Saudi Arabia is an absolute monarchy and Israel is a democracy. M.B.S. can order changes that no Israeli prime minister can. Still, leaders in both have to gauge what will enable them to stay in power, and those instincts are driving Netanyahu to make Israel more like the worst of the old Saudi Arabia and M.B.S. to make Saudi Arabia more like the best of the old Israel.
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The result of Netanyahu’s alliance with the far right is that Israel can’t take advantage of the tectonic shift in Saudi Arabia — with its offer to normalize relations with the Jewish state and open a road for Israel with the rest of the Muslim world — because doing so would require Israel to pursue a pathway with Palestinians to create two states for two indigenous peoples.
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2 hours ago, lnofeisone said:
I like the plan that shares oversight of Gaza between Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, Israel, and the US. Everyone has interest here.
missing Qatar and Turkey. The two of them constitute the other “power block” in the Sunni world that competes with the countries you mentioned:
UAE, Saudi and Egypt
And if Qatar/Turkey are ignored, they would just undermine it. And unlike Iranian influence in Palestine which is opportunistic, Levant is well within Turkey’ zone of interest and historical narrative.
Once the two Sunni power blocks are aligned vis a vis at creating a sustainable future in Gaza, than the Iranian influence in Palestine will disappear and chokes out, because it no longer has a willing host.
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1 hour ago, cubsfan said:
Oh my, now all of a sudden, Bebe is supposed to stop and rollover when he has Hamas on the verge of defeat. Avoid the dirty work and criticism - pull out and wait until the next terrorist attack that kills thousands of Israelis. The only thing terrorists and their brainwashed backers understand is strength - and they are witnessing it in spades.
Could have all been avoided if braindead Palestinians released all hostages (yeah Americans too) and turned over the Hamas planners. But no, they rather suffer with the consequences of their actions and blame Netanyahu.
what is your proposed solution in clearing the cesspool …. on the day after ?
it cannot be just about hostages. Israel needs long term solution and not just a “mission accomplished” photo op with the conquest of Rafah on the deck of an aircraft carrier.
Israel is great at getting tactical short term wins, but it keeps planting seeds ensuring that it loses the long game, even as it wins the short game.
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37 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:
Without ongoing hostilities, the only way out for Netanyahu is resignation. Defy the world, do Rafah, and retire to glory as the 'saviour' who rid Israel of Hamas.
Thing is, Netanyahu isn't Dayan or Ben-Gurion, and after Rafah - both Hamas and Hezbollah will still be there. All that happens is that labour dries up, and the sons and daughters of those killed in these hostilities - ensure another 2-3 decades of ongoing conflict. An eye for an eye.
All hail Netanyahu.
SD
worse. There could be something else there in the cesspool day after tomorrow. There would be no shortages of candidates. There ain’t no f&$;ing marshal plan being marshalled.
Bibi has done more harm to the fabric Israeli society than any Palestinian movement could have in decades. Now he is trying his hand at the populist angle as he reopens wounds from WW2. “We will do it ourselves, if American don’t give us 2,000 Ib bombs” sob sob
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26 minutes ago, MMM20 said:
Yes. This is still my biggest position by a lot. It has gotten up to about half my retirement accounts. I’m talking about taking it down to 30-40%, still my biggest by 2x. Still think it’s easily worth $2-3K and I would not sell if this were close to a normal core position.
I wonder if others with big positions since 2020-21 are looking at this similarly. I don’t think it’s fair to completely dismiss the fact that he’s selling, even if it’s a relatively small sale and for a logical reason.
But since (I think?) you asked… yeah I guess I’m looking for capital to add a bunch to HIFS - which I’m convinced is a similar setup at this point, a top quality, well run, 30+ year compounder trading around book and ~6-8x normalized earnings in large part due to an almost certainly temporary situation in interest rates (in HIFS case, ongoing yield curve inversion). IMHO an attractively skewed ~2x type of expected return over a couple years - similar to FFH’s e(r) in my mind.
thank you
Fairfax 2024
in Fairfax Financial
Posted
it is exactly as GFP said.
At company level, they talk book value and EPS. Never EBITDA.
EPS goes hand in hand with BV.
That said for private holding they quote EBITDA now and then.