Red Lion

I think this is all somewhat semantic. A growth stock isn't overvalued in the first place if you think you should be including it in your portfolio, right? It's all value investing, there's just room for disagreement about whether that exists. The long term prospects of a business and its ability to return capital to shareholders should determine its value. A company trading at 50x earnings that grows earnings 50% annually for 10 years while returning all capital to shareholders is undervalued. A company trading at 50x earnings that can grow its earnings for 20% a year and return capital for 20 years is still undervalued. A company trading at 4X earnings that continues to plow money back into losing investments at a low ROIC, and never returns capital to shareholders....that might be overvalued. Capital light businesses trading at high multiples will often appear to be overvalued based on book value especially, but if they have growth prospects they can still turn out to be great investments without going to the capital markets to raise capital. Management really can make a huge difference, and it seems like perpetual "undervaluation" seems to be highly correlated with entrenched bad management without aligned incentives.

Trimmed APO, OWL, PM, and Nintendo in my retirement accounts.

+1

This may seem like a stupid question, but would DJT have any authority to cut spending on e.g. Pell Grants without congressional action? Even if he closed the DOE? I agree with your sentiments 100%. I also think this profligate government spending is causing obvious inflation in the exact areas that you reference. Healthcare, construction, education, and groceries would probably all cost a hell of a lot less money if the federal government wasn't constantly throwing fuel on the fire.

I've had a tracking position since PayPal gave me $25 of bitcoin as a promotion. Obviously wishing I'd backed up the truck at basically any time previously since it would have been a good trade. Most of my positions have still managed to outperform over that same time frame, so I'm not broken hearted. BTC is one of those investments like TSLA that I never understood but sat by and watched people getting rich. I think there's something to be said for momentum trading since perhaps it helps people catch onto some of these ideas they don't even understand. I was listening to a recent interview with Druckenmiller, and it seems like he's been very successful with an essentially momentum strategy over the years.

Well if it's like the last administration (or the Obama administration for that matter), they probably wait until someone gets arrested for a crime first by local authorities before placing an immigration hold and beginning deportation proceedings. But if the construction labor situation gets any worse, that could be a really bad thing. Still, as far as homebuilders are concerned, don't you think the big players will be the ones to get labor while all the mom and pop real estate investors and home renovations types get frozen out of the market? I guess there's no reason to speculate, we will probably know in a few months how everything unfolds.

Fair point.

It seems like maybe the homebuilders continue to be a good opportunity here. Assuming these market assumptions about interest rates hold, it feels like we would likely continue to have suppressed supply of inventory, low affordability, high replacement costs, etc. etc. These same tailwinds that have benefited the homebuilders over the last couple years would seem to still apply.

Have you considered writing clickbait for the motley fool?

Just get a good policy and an umbrella policy. Not that hard. Then maybe a pool fence for starters. Funny thing is it’s impossible to get insurance in California right now, but the pool hasn’t been an issue.

I trimmed some APO and OWL in my 401k. These are two of my favorite positions, and my two biggest positions even after being trimmed. Used the money to build JOE up to a 15% position in the 401k.

Couldn't you see a situation with political pressure for quantitative easing to lower borrowing costs and bolster investment in on shoring? I don't see why Trump can't exert political pressure on the Fed to use all of its financial wizardry? I know the curve steepener seems to be the consensus, but the consensus is so often wrong and there are many moving parts here, and we probably won't know for a couple years how things play out. If the US economy is blowing up, leading in AI, huge GDP lift from on-shoring and lower taxes, and the rest of the world is going back to ZIRP, what's to prevent the US from doing that too? Run things a little hot and grow the economy back to proportion with our debt load. Play some financial engineering and still maintain a strong (enough) dollar with lower rates and lower regulation and lower taxes. Maybe it's just wishful thinking, I'm not necessarily betting on this outcome, but I think it's a lot more likely than before the red wave we just had.

I wouldn't go without it. It gets miserable in the summer here without one. I know people that waste more money in fancy car depreciation in 5 years than I spent on a swimming pool that will last for 50 years. They're a lot of maintenance though. Not good for investment properties.

I’ve been shopping for pools in California, and I ended up getting a way better concrete pool for less money. Maybe it’s just market inefficiency, but I’m not so sure fiberglass actually is cheaper to the consumer. Or perhaps very dependent on the topography at an individual site. Also some really high end neighborhoods in the foothills commonly have fiberglass pools and they’re really nice too.

You're welcome! I feel like I really need to dig in to look for opportunities, now that I can't find any low hanging fruit with the alts. I do still feel like the group BX/ARES/KKR/APO/BAM/CG/OWL can do well over the long term, but the valuations are high across the board.