Ronchong

Not going to step out of my expertise and comment on monkeypox. Regardless, I find it interesting how much fear can drive return. SIGA is up 150% over the last 3 months no matter the severity

Well, the title was also a play on wallstreetbet members so your interpretation was not exactly wrong! It spreads through aerosel, indirect and direct contact too but you are right that it does not transmit easily from human to human as very close contact is needed. Word on the street is that there is a different variant of monkeypox that is a lot more contagious given the case count in Europe. Either that or there was a mass orgy somewhere I was not invited to!

What does the board think of monkeypox and the implications on the market? Fear mongering or lockdown 2.0? The symptoms does not seem to be as severe but still it seems contagious enough to be a cause for concern. Lastly, the statistics coming out of Europe does not look good. Confirmed cases have essentially doubled in the last 3 days albeit from a small base.

Has anyone looked into NewLake Capital Partners? Came public recently with a similar model to IIPR. Could be worth looking if the trajectory is similar to IIPR Oh and Gordon Dugan is the board chairman.

Incentives matter too. If the management of a company is being assessed and rewarded based on revenue growth, net profit growth, the management will be more likely to undertake acquisition using shares. If the metrics that are used to evaluate performance and EBITDA/EPS, I think you will be more likely to see a debt/cash deal

Could be due to GameStop? It's about 6-7% of the ETF.

Completely agree! But Wood is no chump either in the competition for the prize. I've just seen a video of her where she uses the treasury yield as a discount rate for equity. Seriously? There's no risk premium anymore? Either she's selling to idiots or thinks we're all idiots. What's even more amazing is that the video was monitored by someone from her compliance team. I do not have a morning wood for Cathie wood but I recall this is also how Buffett thinks about DCF/value as well. Got to dig out that interview/letter. Buffett discounts by the treasury yield and adjusts for the equity risk premium through his margin of safety. E.g. riskier stocks would have to trade at 50% below his calculated value but he doesn't discount the risk at the DCF stage. Not quite sure what advantages this has as opposed to discounting for the risk at the DCF stage.

I get the original SPAC trade because that was a market where there was pretty much no opportunities. But the SPAC risk/reward have changed these few days,.I would say that you are lucky to even get a 15% announcement pop these days. No SPAC I know of got above $11.5 on the announcement so you are risking 5% for max 15% gain. That doesn't seem like a good trade to me. If the market ever get cheap enough, you can be pretty certain that SPACs would get sold off below their NAV. All this while, you have to liquidate your SPACs at a discount to switch over to whatever you want. Why lose 5% when you can lose none?

@shamelesscloner I recall Greg mentioning that it was high 8s/low 9s in the other thread. I got out of most of my SPACs since the risk/reward is no longer attractive. The whole idea of investing in SPACs is so that (i) You can have a quasi cash instrument with upside optionality to park your cash when there is nothing cheap to invest in (ii) You have the ability to switch it out at a small gain/close to no loss and pick up quality businesses on the cheap when the market reverse. Why is anyone investing in SPACs now when your view is that there would be bargains down the road?

On AVAN, I think you would find that Citadel owns a sizable position in most of the SPACs. This is due to their role as a market maker and not them investing out of merits. On VYGG, I put them taking Reddit public at 1%. There is a huge conflict of interest there.

Its playing out like how you envisioned it to be! The pre-announcement SPACs start to trade at their expected value post-announcement. It's very hard to buy into promising pre-announcement SPACs under $11 now, even the unknown ones starts from $10.5. Chamath's IPOD is one of the most ridiculous SPAC that is currently on the market right now, trading close to 80% above cash value! This seems like a much profitable play than waiting for the SPAC's announcement. 1. Buy into promising SPACs at IPO 2. Wait for Robinhood gang to pile in 3. ??? 4. Profit I meant at unit launch! Sorry for the confusion, edited my post to make it clearer

Its playing out like how you envisioned it to be! The pre-announcement SPACs start to trade at their expected value post-announcement. It's very hard to buy into promising pre-announcement SPACs under $11 now, even the unknown ones starts from $10.5. Chamath's IPOD is one of the most ridiculous SPAC that is currently on the market right now, trading close to 80% above cash value! There could be another play here whereby one buys into the next IPOX, IPOY, IPOZ, AJAX, DGNR at unit launch and wait for the speculative robinhoog gang to recognise the "value" of the team and drive the price up. Much better IRR! 1. Buy into promising SPACs at IPO 2. Wait for Robinhood gang to pile in 3. ??? 4. Profit

Faster than I expected. The third spac ETF to be launched https://www.wsj.com/articles/third-spac-etf-launch-taps-into-blank-check-company-boom-11611225000?st=tqancnjk828lams&reflink=article_email_share

57% in a day, the party continues. I was speculating on the SOFI merger but went with IPOF instead thinking IPOE would be too small, damn. I think Chamath still hasnt close on his IPOD yet and there's a decent change either IPOD/F would close in the next few months given his tweets.

I probably should, when I find out how to change the topic. I'm pretty much using SPACs as a form of cash alternative as well, I have about 50-60% of my portfolio spread over a basket of SPACs. Including SPACs, I'm about 100% invested, this leaves me around 20-30% of margin conservatively, backed against my SPACs, to add to my other positions if the market goes down. Thiel's SPAC is a sign of the beginning of the end, 60% above cash value for a company that may end up going the IPO route is madness. I think you have laid out the end game of the SPACs extremely well. Let me start, a couple of the SPACs near NAV that I have on my list are: XPOA CCAC FUSE AVAN