Stuart D

Hey Brett, I just saw your book is being reviewed on the investor’s podcast - congrats!!

One of my mates attended an Exxon Christmas party as a +1. Because he was an outsider they made him sit through a safety briefing. The safety briefing was a sermon glorifying The Exxon Way with bookends of the bathrooms & fire exit locations.

I think lower production costs means lower oil prices.

$XOM producing in the Permian for a cost of <$35/bbl. Surely this is bearish for oil prices.

It’s a fun book. The sequel was also good from memory (though it’s probably been ~5+ years since I read them).

If Elon can fire 80% of government employees my guess is that will be recessionary and puts on the SPY or QQQ might be an interesting play.

Thanks John! Much appreciated.

Thanks @John Hjorth, The investing in value creators book doesn’t seem to be available on Amazon here in Australia, but I’ve found a YouTube interview with the author to give me some insight into the concepts: I like his point [paraphrasing]: “people offered $100 today or $110 in a year will take $100 today. However when the same people were offered $100 in 10yrs or $110 in 11yrs would choose to wait the extra year.” The message being people are [more] rational when making long term decisions compared to immediate decisions. He then applies this to discounted cash flows where the calculations focus more on near term flows, while his hyperbolic DCF models focus on the longer term cash flows. Very interesting indeed. Some other gems: ”it’s deeply relaxing to buy something you never plan to sell” ”the longer you extend your time horizon, the less competitive investing becomes”

Thanks for posting!

In the past Buffet has said many times (with certainty), that at some point, be it in 5yrs or 50yrs, oil production won’t keep up with demand. At that point the price will go way up. I wonder if he still thinks that’s the likely outcome.

So greatness is extraordinary hard to achieve and even harder to maintain?

Yep! Value after hours is where I heard it - great podcast

Heard a pitch on Subaru. Trading below cash. Mid single digit PE. Shareholder returns 30-50% of income, split between dividends and buybacks.

Hahaha yeah, there’s that as well.

Yeah, nice. Growing net income, clean balance sheet, tightening market, rates moving higher. All looking positive for the warrants.