Stuart D

Yep! Value after hours is where I heard it - great podcast

Heard a pitch on Subaru. Trading below cash. Mid single digit PE. Shareholder returns 30-50% of income, split between dividends and buybacks.

Hahaha yeah, there’s that as well.

Yeah, nice. Growing net income, clean balance sheet, tightening market, rates moving higher. All looking positive for the warrants.

Great call out @Xerxes. They are so aggressive on the buy-backs at the moment. It would be nice if there was a little more term to their debt ($1.5-$2b maturing in 25,26,27), but then again, they do have an almost $3b cash balance against a ~$6b debt load, so liquidity shouldn't be an issue. Interesting line on the debt due within 1-yr being classified as long term: "MGM China's senior notes due within one year of the December 31, 2023 balance sheet were classified as long-term as MGM China has both the intent and ability to refinance the current maturities on a long-term basis."

The end game is rolling 5% treasuries, issuing stock when at a premium and repurchasing when trading at a discount. Close all stores. Layoff all employees. Hire roaring kitty to head up a pump and dump business unit. It’s already a meme stock, might as well make the company a 100% trolling operation.

I don’t know if it’s legal or not, but it seems kind of slimy like the pump & dump crypto adds you see on twitter. I don’t really understand why he’s doing it though. You’ve got $100m, why shine a spotlight on yourself. Upside: $100m becomes $200m. Change to your day-to-day life = zero. Downside: you spend the next few years defending yourself in court (if something goes wrong). Is it really worth it? Even if the chances of being sued are low, I just don’t get the risk reward.

Thanks for posting.

I keep forgetting how long the timelines are in this business. 10+ years, wow.

Surprised there is no chat here on the supposed 500 billion barrel Russian discovery in Antarctica. It seems too big to be real, right?

Agree Valaris is looking good here. Fcf starting to roll in.

Between this shale call and their note on Saudi’s reserves, the supply side isn’t looking great. To balance the market it’ll need some more Venezuelan production (or maybe Argentinian shale?).

Nice. Increased BB. Seems like a good setup.

Woah, sounds interesting. Was the recency drop from $65 to $41/share due to some dividend payments or capital returns? edit: ok I’ve found the thread for this name. Looks like it was a big special dividend.

Yeah, great book. I listened to the audiobook after hearing the author being interviewed on the Grant’s podcast. Well worth a listen/read.