watsa_is_a_randian_hero

Verizon is something that is trading at high multiples, paying out a dividend at an unstainable rate, and burdened with high capex obligations. That said I don't understand enough of the ownership structure of its investments (such as verizon wireless) to confidently take a position. Anyone care to defend the bull perspective on Verizon?

Sherwin Williams (SHW). Company is trading at 25 year highs in terms of multiples. Multiples much higher than competitors. Friends who work there have alluded to management being potentially over-focused on short term stock movements. In addition, management is extremely well compensated. CEO Connor made $35.7 million between 2007-2011. This compares to $32.3 million made over the same period by Immelt at GE (a company 10x+ in size). This is also over a period where EPS declined from $4.84 to $4.22! Overall though the company fundamentally has performed well and is run fairly conservatively. They consistently return cash to shareholders.

Jeez...you guys are harsh. I think the author recognizes this. It is a hypothetical...framed with "If you had to". FCBN Please tell us about First Citizens Bancorporation. I started buying at $400 a couple years ago. I was pretty sure I had wrote this up on here before, a year or two ago. I just searched though and didn't find it. Maybe it got deleted. Anyways, its a cheap, well-run, conservative, family-controlled southern bank. FCNCA is a sister company controlled by same family. They have links between management, boards, and back office systems. Not much more to say. All of their financials are public. 90's through 2006 was filed on SEC, financials since then are posted on website.

Jeez...you guys are harsh. I think the author recognizes this. It is a hypothetical...framed with "If you had to". FCBN

IB & don't use all or none.

if you are talking about the same content available online, I think your time would be better spent creating new content rather than figuring out how to republish the same content in an antiquated medium to satisfy the personal preferences of some of your followers. 1. the content is always changing; the shortly after it is published in written form it will already be outdated. 2. The internet is by far a cheaper medium of content communication. 3. Because of 2 and 3, most followers would prefer internet. 4. You will have high fixed costs in delivering the content through print. Not just explicit costs, but hidden costs in your time. It is unlikely those few that desire print content would be willing to pay high enough prices that would allow you could recoup these costs and a reasonable profit. your time is very valuable. i'm surprised you are even using your time to consider this.

I'm confused - is this a mutual company or a publicly traded company? How is Khrom buying?

can someone explain to me what the motivation is to invest in fairholme before its lockup? they will still disclose their holdings publicly...any investor could copy-cat them on particular holdings...its not as though one would miss out. I can understand the motivation for someone uninformed in finance, or without desire to monitor the portfolio, but for some capable/willing of monitoring/understanding what Fairholme is investing in, why worry about getting in before lockout when copy-cat strategy is always an option?

so will payroll companies...ADP has huge float with most invested in short-term fixed income.

gundlach has also been saying for the last 3 months to buy stocks... agreed, with stocks up 10% and the 30 year at 3.1% vs 2.7%, this is no longer as good of a trade, but that doesn't make me a bull on the bond market.

TLT or Futures. I am short through the futures market. I've also sold calls on TLT at 130 in past. I've been short for about a year now. Slightly up on the trade. Not a purely speculative trade as I am not a homeowner, and view it as hedging future borrowing costs should rates rise. Also owned a significant amount of FFH long term bonds yielding over 8% at time of purchase, so can also view part of the trade as hedging these fixed rate bonds. Is this a joke? 30 year at a fixed 2.7 a few weeks ago vs. JNJ common at 3.5% that will grow (or hundreds of other similar equities). Keep in mind shorting bonds does not has unlimited loss risk (unless you believe rates could go negative in a substantial way, not just technically). As such shorting at low interest rates is a trade with somewhat asymmetric payoff possibilities. (1) the fed won't stop buying bonds until inflation occurs (2) inflation will raise rates (3) the market is forward looking...rates will rise and bonds will fall in anticipation of inflation...before it occurs (4) the fed doesn't have full control over the bond market. The treasury is issuing new debt faster than the fed is buying. A drop in demand would affect prices and yields.

not to webtrader. I've never been able to get on the TWS at work. I'm not sure why I can get on one and not the other.

no mention of entitlement reform...the biggest problem our system has...and the problem with the biggest potential impact on my generation (under 35).

why is there no "reduce dividends" option? I would not want to see "cut altogether," but frankly, the earnings have not warranted keeping it the same level.

Sweet Snacks Twinkies CupCakes Ding Dongs Ho Hos Sno Balls Donettes Devil Dogs – Drake’s Funny Bones – Drake’s Ring Dings – Drake’s CoffeeCakes – Drake’s Blueberry Muffins – Drake’s Yodels – Drake’s Breads Wonder Nature’s Pride Merita Home Pride Beefsteak Butternut Millbrook Eddy’s J.J. Nissen Sweetheart Cotton’s Holsum Sunbeam Bread du Jour

As suggested by finetrader. Commodities (and the worst one like ATPG and I sold OSTK for this crap) And VXX VXX is a suckers play. 1 word: Contango.

??? not sure what is meant by this post, as it is clear from the discussion above everyone is already aware of the polls.

WEM lost his marbles or just trolling?

1. The 7 states are not independent events happening in vacuum (Correlation). It is really 1 event. 2. Not sure. A lot of Rep base stayed home in 2008, while a lot of first time minorities showed up. This may have accounted for the above-average decline in 2008 of white voters as % of electorate. What is the likelihood this repeats itself?

bmichaud - I agree undervalue. Another trade that is overvalued on Intrade is Florida having the closest margin of victory of all states. I looked into putting some money to work on intrade a while back...as a word of caution they are not regulated and do not release their audits when requested. I know you've spent some time in the great state of ohio - what are your thoughts there specifically? My thoughts are as follows: -On the one hand you have the polls, and Obama's ground game. -On the other hand you have the fact the polls oversample Dem. This may have to do with Ohio not having true party registration though. Some of the Reps are really in the Ind numbers perhaps. -Ohio generally votes more conservative then the nation. O won ohio by 4.7 in 2008, and won the nation by 7.2. The national polls are now tied (and these polls have better-vetted methodology and are more likely accurate). A similar shift in ohio would point to a Rep win. -Independents polled appear to consistently support Rep. -Finally, the numbers from the early voting in raw for support Dems, but the shifts from 08 appear to erode O's 08 winning margin in the state. Anecdotes: Coal unions for Rep for first time in decades. Rep base appears more energized. Dem base appears less energized. Ohio has a lot of catholics - that could play a role. All that said I would agree that 30-70 odds for Rep/Dem appears to undervalue Rep at this point.

Capital IQ is about $20K per year? I would like to be spending under $1K for this data. I get through my employer (luckily). unsure on price, though I would be surprised if we're paying that much. I did thought that they pay somewhere in the $1-3k range at the margin for incremental users. Not sure what a subscription is like for a single user.

Capiq has by quarter high, low, average, and ending ratios. you can also build your own ratios using their excel plug for specific dates. for some large caps they have over 20 years of data. They have also added forward-looking multiples in recent years.

wow no replies? I thought there would be other owners of these out there.

Anyone else own these? As mentioned previously on this board, over the last 12-18 months I had sold off a lot of my FFH stock position at prices 400+ and reinvested much of the proceeds in the 2037 bonds priced in the lower 90s. My broker is now quoting in the 116.875 today. If anyone else owns these, I'd be interested in getting your thoughts on what price/spread you'd be looking to exit at. I think I'm going to continue to hold for now. I'm hedged on the fixed rate as I'm already short the 30 year treasury bond, so I am long the spread here.

have not seen you posting on here before...but unless Eddie Willers is your actual name, I believe your user name is now at least the 3rd separate reference to Atlas Shrugged.