ubuy2wron
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Posts posted by ubuy2wron
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Looks like this is the discussion I tried to start on another thread. Tipping points are clearly potentialy VERY profitable themes to identify. I believe the Japan debt to GDP dilema is one of those tipping points. I can remember debating the sub prime issue and the real estate bubble in the US back in 2007 with some shareholders of of Country wide. I think a similar situation is developing with sovereign debt and currencies. I am of the school that postulates that we do not emerge from the financial crises until the write offs occur. The write-offs will now likely be at a national level because the risk and liability was transfered from private to public capital. Japan has become the world champion at marathon can kicking I suspect that the race is soon to come to an end as suggested by Mr Bass.
Hedgies piling on a trend, bond vigilanties and the Japanese house wife ( who have become masters of currency speculation) will be the forces that start the snow ball rolling down hill I believe that will end with bad things happening. It is very likely that the damages will not just be limited to Japan.
I have not got a clue how to play this and I would watch the spreads on japanese govt bonds and a developing interest in gold by the japenese house wife as tells that the gig is close to up.
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No I completely understand the corelation between IE and the murder rate. IE like all MSFT software with its propesity to freeze and crash has made me want to go postal on numerous occasions.I don't see why Stevie Wonder could not get a gun to defend himself. Have you ever seen Bloodsport? ;D
I did not think that this thread would turn into gun control, but some seem to like the topic. Anyway, IMO, this gun control debate has two parts:
1- Significantly reduce the access to semi-automatic, large magazines weapons or the typical weapons used in mass shootings.
2- Reducing the death rate by guns in the U.S. which comes largely from hand guns during various altercations such as domestic violence and crimes.
So addressing Newtown via gun control should be done mainly by reducing the access to military style weapons and IMO, the NRA should not have that much of an issue with it. Although, as I have mentioned previously, we have serious control over these weapons in Quebec and still had many mass shootings with these. Some dismissed that fact, but other incidents have happened worldwide, so it is more than just a statistical outlier. So, it is a step forward, but not an all inclusive solution.
Regarding hand guns, they could also be used for mass shootings since many of them are semi-automatic. However, the problem using these for mass shooters is the lack of a large magazine and their imprecision. I don't think that they create either the kind of power trip that these idiots seek when they go on a rampage with a machine gun style weapon. Moreover, if you start preventing the access to regular hand guns, then you get right into the #2 amendment which makes it near impossible to pass into law IMO.
So sure, removing the access to hand guns would likely reduce the death rate in the U.S. by a lot. At the same time, I do feel compassion for guys like Ericopoly and rkbabang who carry such weapon to defend themselves against criminals and are unlikely to ever fire it on a human being. It becomes very hard to decide who should have one and who shouldn't. A much broader solution would be to find a solution to make U.S. cities much safer. Reducing the poverty and unemployment rate in the inner cities would certainly reduce crime significantly and would be much more moral than just going after hand guns.
Cardboard
There is also a large cultural component to violence. Many people like to point to homicide statistics between the US and the UK and make a correlation between the current gun laws and the current homicide rates forgetting that correlation doesn't equal causation. What you find if you look at the statistics over time is that 1) the UK always had a much much lower homicide rate than the US even back when neither country had any gun laws to speak of. And 2) the UK's rate is much higher today than earlier in the last century when it had no gun laws to speak of. You could take that data and conclude that all else being equal gun laws increase violence. Statistics can be used to prove just about anything as the IE vs homicide rate chart shows. Again correlation doesn't imply causation.
http://i.imgur.com/47D7zGq.png
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Or alternatively she could be one of the victims. The proliferation of arms in the US is simply an arms race run amok. The best defense against a crazy with an assault rifle is not another gun. It is a set of sensible laws that keeps the assault rifle out of the crazy guys hands in the first place. The gun merchant lobby how ever knows that the best thing for their business is easy unfettered access to lots of guns. I realize that I will change no ones mind so I better stop now.When a pistol became practical to carry, it was called the great equalizer. Before then, the toughest pugilist or someone who was good with a blade or any gang could steal or kill with impunity. I can take care of myself, but a diminutive lady I know surprised me recently by telling me that she always carries a pistol in her purse when she goes downtown. She's an expert marksman. and knows how to use her pistol.
This is a good point and one I rarely see brought up by those who want to see guns out of the hands of the public. When I see a man make a statement for elimination of guns I laugh because it is easy for him to say, he has the upper hand over half the population (women) by being physically stronger. 96% of violent offenders in jail are men, and women are easy targets. A gun in the hands of a woman levels the playing field. What would be the effect on rape, assault, and muggings if all women were issued a hand gun to carry in their purses and properly trained in its use?
If that little lady had been in the audience in the theater in Colorado or in the school in Connecticut or on the Island in Skandinavia, there might have been a shooting, but there wouldn't have been a massacre.
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The idea of shorting Japanese government securities is certainly interesting but also pretty darn complex I think. The arguement that bad things are certain to flow from countries that have debt to GDP ratios like Japans is pretty compelling. The historical record is no country has reached the levels that Japan is experiencing without default and or a currency collapse. Where when is the tipping point and how to profit is the billion dollar question. Any ideas or discussion would be appreciated.
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Its pretty evident that the NRA and their supporters are better funded , motivated and organized than their opposition. The gun merchants want every body packing ,no restrictions and every one afraid ,its very good for business. They also like the a lot of political debate and fiery rhetoric about restrictions , every time there is public outrage after a massacre and debate about restrictions sales go through the roof. The simple fact is if the US had the same kind of gun laws as other civilized countries the murder rate would collapse not disappear but decline procipitously. Its just a lot harder to kill some one through other means it takes much more effort. Does any one think the world would be a safer place if all contries had nuclear weapons. I for one would not want to live in that world and thank fully because of my age I will not likely ever have to live in that world. The US has by far the most effective nuclear arsenal on this planet but that is zero defense against a rogue actor with a nuke. Likewise all the security in the world is no defense against a lunatic with a hand gun if one thinks back to the Reagan shooting. It took a war and a constitutional amendment to erase slavery in the US there fore the US constitution is not a perfect document. Lets not have a world where the gun is pried from your cold dead hands because some nut case with an assault rifle opened fire at your kids foot ball game. I do not want terrorist organizations with nukes and I do not want crazies with assault rifles. Sorry in advance for the rant and the spelling errors.
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If I was Patrick I would have a loaded Glock ,a retired ex Navy Seal and a big old Rotweiler as my constant companions, he has ticked off some really bad people and he is onefearless mutha if you ask me.Oh geez! I'm sure Sam Antar and Gary Weiss will finally crawl back out from under their rocks to write about this! Like I said before, what the hell is wrong with Americans and their obsessions with guns?
You just have a frickin' loaded Glock lying around in a gym bag in your closet? Loaded...no trigger lock...and just sitting in a bag where anyone can get their hands on it, not to mention a relatively high-profile CEO accidentally packing his luggage in it and trying to board a flight. You guys are retarded down there! ;D Cheers!
Agree with your comments but at least he is licensed to hold a concealed weapon and nothing was loaded in the chamber. Probably a slap on the hand and long lineups at the Airports to follow. But, it's certainly the wrong time to make such a mistake. Then again, when you learn the guys story - I can understand why he got his concealed weapon license.
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Looks like Prem is back to even on RIMM. Investing in handset companies has been like walking through a minefield for the last decade.It appears that the smartest strategy HAS been to just sell the heck out of who ever have been the perceived winner by MR. mkt. No one has been able to hold onto mkt leadership. The consumer has been pretty fickle.
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I have nothing but a ton of regard and admiration for Seth but this is not the nicest way to make a bunch of money. It would have been nicer if he out smarted a Saudi Prince or a Columbian drug lord or any number of other ways. I am sure his investors are deserving and all its just that the Madoff victims are not a group I want to make a bunch of dough off of. It may be legal and it may be smart but it aint always nice.
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I have not read every post however congrats are in order for many members here. I had an average year 14-15% after fees no leverage with 7 figures in my acccounts. This is equal to the returns I have generated since Jan 1 2000. My mistakes this year were pretty much the same mistakes I have made in the past ,selling too soon when a position is working. The average return according to the survey was nothing short of spectacular I presume that their may be a little reporting bias in the results however the value of the ideas shared here seems pretty self evident. Kudos Parsad.
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If you want to understand rational vs irrational human behaviour, run do not walk and buy a copy of Thinking fast, thinking slow. I promise if you read the book you Will be more likely to make more rational choices going forward. Most of us including the more disciplined Vulcan like Buffett devotees that populate this site are hard wired to make silly choices me included.
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I noticed this AM that FFH is now trading in increments of less than a fraction of a cent actually in increments of 1/1000 of a penny. Am I the only one that thinks this is stupid and is likely taking place for all the wrong reasons?
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To Tim and Southern Yankee and some of the other strict 2nd ammendment adherance advocates.
I am pretty certain that there exists some circumstances for which you would feel that fire-arms posession should be restricted. I am guessing that for instance convicted felons should lose this right, perhaps you also feel that minor children should not also be allowed unrestricted access. It would probably be okay for you if certifiable lunatics not be allowed gun ownership. Please do not feel that your rights are beingtrampled upon if the majority of citizens want to draw the lines in different areas than you. I am guessing that what ever changes occur and I think you can safely presume that a change is a comming that it is not going to force YOU to part with your beloved weapons.
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There are serious thugs in bad areas close to everyone living anywhere on this planet. The prevelance of guns is part of the problem of the constant state of low level fear that many live with on a daily basis. The thugs are afraid as well by the way. The globe and mail published some stats on prevelance of guns on a state by state basis and gun violence. More guns seem to be directly related to more gun related violence.Are we asking the right question? What if the crazy person had thrown a big Molotov Cocktail into a crowded room? Would we be talking about banning gasoline? Shouldn't we be talking instead about why it is so difficult to get psychotic and potentially violent people into secure, involuntary custodial care before they do something terrible, not afterward?
This is a specious argument. The fact is that gasoline is more readily available than guns, yet lunatics don't throw Molotov cocktails into crowded rooms. It just doesn't happen. There is something different about guns. The perpetrator is confronting his targets directly and can be the superman. (I'm just guessing that some type of power-play is the basic reason why guns are the weapon of choice. I'm sure someone has looked into this carefully so if anyone knows more I'd love to hear.)
The thought of involuntary custodial care for people who are diagnosed as psychotic but have yet to act violently or break the law is absolutely terrifying to me. You cannot prove someone is psychotic or "potentially" violent. I would completely agree with you if there was some way of actually making that call, but I don't believe there is.
Yeah you can to the extent of getting guardianship of an older child, even an adult child who is psychotic or non compos mentos. There are established court procedures for doing this without violating civil rights, One Flew Over The Coo Coo's Nest notwithstanding. The problem is that a guardian can't get permanent custodial care in a secure place for a crazy family member.
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Cardboard, Montreal PROVES nothing about gun control laws and the frequency of mass shootings. The only thing that Montreal proves is that probability is a bitch.(Every wise investor understands this). I have a very large bone to pick with The NRA in the USA which most would argue is the single most powerfull lobby in existance. At its core is an unholy alliance of "gun lovers" and the fire-arms industry. My favorite recent travesity is the extension of the stand your ground laws. The gun lovers often argue that if every one was packing then these mass shootings would not occur which may or may not be true but ignores the unfortunate fact that many more are killed in oneseys and twoseys because of accidents and domestic heat of passion type situations. I advocate for sensible laws that restrict the publics access to fire-arms for reasons that are pretty much self evident."Gun control laws will not eliminate mass shootings it will reduce there incidence, end of story."
Maybe but, Montreal proves otherwise. I can't think of any other North American city with 4 mass shootings in just over 20 years. Can you think of any? This despite some of the tightest gun laws, especially to get access to assault weapons. Maybe it is just an isolated case and that there have been fewer mass shootings overall in Canada on a per capita basis? Remember that you need 1/10 the occurrence and I doubt it is the case, although I don't have stats on it.
Better gun control will reduce what I tried to explain and what Parsad mentioned: per capita number of gun-related injuries or deaths. Unfortunately, that part gets into the self-defense mentality in the States. The majority of people down there who buy a gun (hand gun, shotgun or otherwise), purchase it to defend themselves, not to go hunting. There is a mentality that you can self defend yourself.
Up here in Canada, if you kill someone even if proven that you did it in self defense or to protect your own life, you are subject to a sentence of 3 years in jail. I can't think of too many up here who go buy a gun to primarily protect themselves. It is mostly to go hunting. We are being raised with the idea that you can't do your own justice. It is a very different mentality.
The other thing that is truly screwed up in the States, is that some States are now legalizing pot which will mean more consumption and less control over other drugs also including chemicals or pills. These things have been proven to help develop disorders in younger adults such as schizophrenia. If you want more trouble, keep having more of these in society and I guarantee you that the number of mass shootings will skyrocket. The guns, they will always find them one way or the other.
Cardboard
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Gun control laws will not eliminate mass shootings it will reduce there incidence, end of story. Crazy people will always do crazy things. I just want to stop them from easily shooting a bunch of kids.Gun controls won't prevent mass shootings and what happened in Montreal proves it.
In 1989, Lepine shot female engineering students at Ecole Polytechnique with an assault weapon. There was a public uproar and much tighter gun controls were implemented especially on arms with military background. In 1992, Fabrikant goes on a shooting spree at Concordia University. In 1995, registration of all firearms is passed into law. Fast forward to 2006 and Gill enters Dawson College with an assault weapon. And this year, Bain kills one on election night after trying to enter the building where the PQ was celebrating its victory with an AK-47 which jammed.
That is four mass shootings in what I would consider a very safe city if I am to look only at the number of total homicides in a given year. When I lived in the States, I could not comprehend how many homicides were occuring on a weekly basis. So I assume that gun control may reduce the number of death committed by people trying to defend themselves or victims of theft, but that it won't do a thing against insane individuals shooting blindly.
I agree that looking at our society, our values, the media and things like video games in which the goal is to kill as many as you can, could do a lot more to prevent these horrors. Giving a goal to people, a sense of responsibility and the need to sacrifice a bit of your own pleasures for the good of society and others could do a lot. The hero generation understood that, it has been downhill ever since.
Cardboard
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I generally think the NRA stance is nuts but they are not the problem in this case.
Unlike gang, or domestic violence, these cases are Black Swan events, in their truest definition that Taleb intended. You cannot predict them. They are random, happen worldwide, and cannot be prevented. You would need full airport style security to enter any public place in the world.
To our Canadians on this board, dont be too smug. Just this summer in Toronto was a multiple shooting at a barbeque; recall Marc Lepine in Montreal killing 14 women at the college; or Robert Pickton killing dozens of prostitutes over years, or Olsen, murdering dozens of boys, or our esteemed Colonel at the Trenton military facility killing at least two women, raping more, and stealing panties.
My bet is that a population adjusted analysis since 1960 would show that these events are equally distributed across the world.
Now to drug legalization. Production should be decriminalized, possession decriminalized, and the money put into treatment. This would solve violence problems across the world. Imagine Billions of dollars pouring into treatment rather than policing, and imprisoning.
Ya I love the war on drugs. Opium is grown in Afghanistan it is shipped to the USA sold at black mkt prices on the open mkt it would be as expensive as asparin. The junkies break into your home or turn tricks to support their habits and also are the largest source of aids in our culture. The money gets back to the Taliban which use the money to blow up American boys and girls fighting for their country. Decriminalize use ,spend the money on treatment reduce the deficit about 100 billion a year. Or you could just shoot junkies bullets are cheap, same effect. I opt for the decriminalization route it seems slightly gentler.
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There is no causal inference being made. Rkbabang said that black markets lead to violent crime, which suggests that less restrictive gun laws should lead to less violent crime. My point is that ALL the statistics I am aware of suggest the opposite correlation, so I'm really unclear where he's coming from.
What statistics are you aware of? Violent crime was reduced in every state that liberalized its gun licensing laws in the United States over the last 25 years. The safest state VT, you don't even need a license to carry a concealed handgun.
There are studies which claim that handguns are used defensively by civilians many multiples of the times they are used criminally. The statistics do show that suicide by gun goes up with availability of handguns, but not total suicide, so people are using the best and quickest method which they have available to them. Yes, it would be hard to commit a mass murder without a gun, but it would also be hard to commit a mass murder in a heavily armed society. Where guns are outlawed however it is pretty easy. You may remember a group of guys some years back killing 3000 people with a few boxcutters, by taking control of aircraft where everyone was banned by law from bringing their weapons. That is why about a month later I started selling bumper stickers which said "Where guns are outlawed, terrorists need only boxcutters". I don't run the website anymore but you can see it on the wayback machine: RKBAbang.com. And now you know where my username came from. RKBAbang stands for "RKBA!", which is the Right to Keep and Bear Arms and bang(!).
Violent crime was reduced in every state that liberalized its gun licensing laws in the United States over the last 25 years. The safest state VT, you don't even need a license to carry a concealed handgun.
Violent crime was reduced in the states that did not change their gun laws as well, but you already knew that. Ya quit the NRA cuz they were not vigilant enuff in protecting your "right to bear arms" We have dozens of dead school children because of the gun lobbies insistance on fighting any attempts at restricting access to firearms. How may dead children does it take to defend your so called rights and freedoms .What makes America strong is not that they have the right to bear arms but that it is a democracy, through a democracy stupid laws can be changed like only allowing men to vote and allowing slavery and allowing any idiot to get their hands on a gun.
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Just once I would like to see one of these nut bars go beserk at a NRA annual convention. You either control access to fire arms or build walls around all the schools or watch innocent children slaughtered
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Its interesting about this fellow. I remember reading about him on this site, I did a little DD and downloaded an annual report. I read a few pages and saw his picture and decided to give him a pass, it was the picture that gave me the creeps. This was before his royal highness and been outed here by the way. Sometimes you can judge a book by its cover I guess.
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I almost never disagree with you Parsad. With this I do. It is highly unlikely Warren could have purchased 9000 a shares at a lower price. This is one months volume for the A shares. The optics are fine he is signalling to the mkt he thinks his company is cheap so cheap he is willing to retire shares. I think every one wins here. Even the Warren haters because they can now say he is a hipocite. LOLSold to beat the coming tax hikes?
Most likely! And a nice public advertisement to any other large blocks of stock who now know they can lock in a 15% rate on a lifetime's worth of appreciation at 13x,000/share with a call to Omaha.
I hope there are more in the next few weeks.
this is a one off imo. in fact the media is going to roast buffett for doing this to help a friend avoid paying higher taxes. he doesn't want to buy back a lot of stock at these levels. this is a token amount.
The optics don't look particularly good, but at the same time, if he can't find better investments than his own company, then you can't fault him.
I just think the timing wasn't great. He could have bought the same 9,200 shares on the market for less...no reporting, nothing. The fact that there is tax savings for a long-time investor, after Buffett so adamantly stated that taxes for the super-rich should rise, is kind of hypocritical. Cheers!
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It has been a wild ride and MR. Swartz has perhaps his snout too deeply in the trough for some tastes. He has the most complex and rewarding compensation agreement on Bay Street. If you compare his compensation with Mr Buffets and Mr. Watsa,s you can see that they both offer vastly superiors terms on their partnership.
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Read Nassim Taleb's books. Not everybody likes his writing style, but he does know his math.
Read his books but DO NOT bother listen to him speak. I had the misfortune of attending an event where he was the key note speaker recently. He is by far the worst public speaker I have ever listened to. Given that he is a regular on the speaker circut and paid quite well I was amazed how awfull he was. I have read most of his popular books and was so much looking forward to his talk.
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What if they gave a recession and nobody came.
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I came to exactly the same conclusion. The other GMO piece by Montier is brilliant however when authors start talking about eleveated uncertainty my BS detector starts to make noises. (Uncertainty is always present and is always unknowable) humans perception of uncertainty and its probability of kicking us in the ass is the only thing that changes and can be quantified and I want to put my dough to work when humans perceive uncertainty to be highI feel Grantham is a modern day Malthus trying to predict something that has so many variables that it cannot be predicted. What is predictable is folks will adapt and historically have overcome the Mathusian limited resources arguments. It is similar to Howard Marks response to what he says to folks who ask him about how Europe will turn out, namely - I don't know, no one knows and if you invest based upon a prediction you will probably lose money.
Packer
Fairfax's break even share price for RIMM
in Fairfax Financial
Posted