Myth465

I am still watching Sears. Lamp is crazy like a fox and I would love to see his master plan. I dont think he should be running a public company though. He doesnt communicate his plan to Shareholders which inmo is unfair. We all know his plan isnt to manage those crappy stores. Only time will tell. I never invested because I saw the same thing you saw. I would prefer to go to Walmart instead of Sears, and dont know anyone who doesnt feel the sameway.

You are correct. Thats a huge increase in just a few days. Very positive. http://www.secform4.com/filings/1349436/000120919110055436.htm Valuecfa if you dont mine me asking, what call did you buy? I own the 2012 $5s.

I have to admit Barry has a better more accurate letter. I lolled here. Sheila Bair grasped the gravity of the situation earliest, and put numerous failed banks through the insolvency process. If we were smart, we would have allowed her to work her way through the entire finance sector

As I see it they will do better than most other insurers out there, which has to be worth something. I think if we have severe inflation FFH will be towards the bottom of my list of things to worry about.

I think you missed his greater point. Regarding child labor, that was an example to show we dont have free markets. When child labor laws were introduced they were fought with market and freedom driven arguments. Fletcher and Chang basically argue that the US and UK were built on protectionism and State Support. I think its hard to dispute that, but would love to here another perspective. Invert, Always invest.

I dont know FFH is growing Goodwill at a steady clip by buying insurers over book. Right now I ignore GW due to ICIC but depending on what they do they may no longer offset.

If you are a fan of the muddle through delever process. I would look at keeping funds in the market, and expanding via reasonable non callable debt. Once things settle down, I plan to purchase realty for rentals with only 5% down. I will ensure that rents can cover all expenses and will keep cash reserves for an emergency. I believe I heard Prem say in a CFA speech that he sees us deleveraging for quite a while followed by higher inflation, he also said that he has no idea how this will turn out.

I will take what I can get. This is definitely a good sign.

Bermuda is not exactly an economic or political power. What do they have - 67,000 people? One to five law changes by the US and Bermuda is screwed. Out of the 150 + countries in the world, is this the best you could come up with? Doesn't that tell you something? It tells me something. Do they have child labor lays? Do they infringe on my right to have my kids earn their keep? Honestly I am a lost cause. These are all on my reading list. One can cling to Ideology and be the slave of some Defunct Economist or can use reason, history, and thought to examine things.... Two countries, one booming, one struggling: which one followed the free-trade route? http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2005/dec/12/5 So which of the two has the better recent economic record? The question should be a no-brainer if all the free-trade theories are right - Mexico should be streets ahead of Vietnam. In fact, the opposite is true. Since Mexico signed the Nafta (North American Free Trade Agreement) deal with the US and Canada in 1992, its annual per capita growth rate has barely been above 1%. Vietnam has grown by around 5% a year for the past two decades. Poverty in Vietnam has come down dramatically: real wages in Mexico have fallen. Im glad we listened to Hamilton. Alexander Hamilton, the first US Treasury secretary, dissented from this view. In a package presented to Congress in 1791, he proposed measures to protect America's infant industries. America went with Hamilton rather than Smith. For the next century and a half, the US economy grew behind high tariff walls, with an industrial tariff that tended to be above 40% and rarely slipped below 25%. This level of support is far higher than the US is prepared to tolerate in the trade negotiations now under way. ---- Free Trade Doesn't Work: What Should Replace it and Why by Ian Fletcher (A Republican). Bad Samaritans: The Myth of Free Trade and the Secret History of Capitalism by Ha-Joon Chang 23 Things They Don't Tell You About Capitalism by Ha-Joon Chang http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1596915986/ref=s9_simh_gw_p14_d0_i2?pf_rd_m=ATVPDKIKX0DER&pf_rd_s=center-2&pf_rd_r=0K00ZC58VYGXZ300FC4A&pf_rd_t=101&pf_rd_p=470938631&pf_rd_i=507846 http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1608191664/ref=s9_simh_gw_p14_d0_i1?pf_rd_m=ATVPDKIKX0DER&pf_rd_s=center-2&pf_rd_r=0K00ZC58VYGXZ300FC4A&pf_rd_t=101&pf_rd_p=470938631&pf_rd_i=507846 http://www.amazon.com/Free-Trade-Doesnt-Work-Replace/dp/0578048205/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1289894138&sr=8-1

I dont really follow. FFH seems to be awashed with capital and fully hedged against most long tail market risks. They no doubt have a good reason, but its way above my head. Either way hopefully its profitable.

I think he was talking more about the lack of failure in the system. Free markets in my opinion pretty much only exist in the minds of Austrian economists. I cant name one nation that isnt intervening in the markets right now. What we have is far from a free market. I agree on the framing of the debate.

The only thing I think they have going for them is content like Howard Stern. There is content I pay for (The Economist) but its tough. I think if they can get key talk radio guys to go to satellite then they can get viewers. Think if some of the Conservative talk radio guys went to satellite. I wouldnt pay but I am sure someone out there would. Talk Radio personal and Sports are the only thing I think could drive Sirus. The only time I use it is when I am in a rental car without an AUX connection.

Taleb - (Very Good Interview) - http://www.bloomberg.com/video/64477298/ Jim Rogers - (More of the Same) - http://www.bloomberg.com/video/64407998/ Bill Gross - (Always Good) - http://www.bloomberg.com/video/63583858/

SirusXM appears like new technology and sounds like a pretty good growth story. I dont get it because I just listen to MP3s in my car and most cars are coming with USB Drives these days. My friend liked Sirus and at the end of the day it was because its a good sounding growth story.

For some reason I really like Gary Shilling. He seems to be more right than wrong. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-12/gary-shilling-sees-equity-selloff-within-year-as-fed-fails-to-fix-economy.html

This is what happens when a CEO losses the Street. Thats all well and good but Wall Street wants more cash flow and less debt. If I was CEO I would actually sell acre and pay down debt. It seems like they have way more acre then they know what to do with so why not sell off 1 play completely for cash and not a JV and use it to fund further drilling or debt reduction. That would get the Streets attention. The capital structure is screwed up in a situation where the commodity they produce is entering a bear market, which may not be a downturn but may be a paradigm shift. Also despite the sales, at this price Gas just isnt worth much. The majors have cash and have to keep production flat to protect their share price. Maybe they can also push Congress a bit more to help develop other uses for that gas. I think when Analyst model production at $4 gas or less, they just dont see much value. Logically we are awash in gas and the prices arent likely to improve. Its hard to break that sentiment. In reality its hard to put a value on all that gas. If all these plays come online everyone knows they will crush the gas pricing. I fear that SD is falling into the same trap in terms of disappointing the Street.

Very good presentation. http://www.veracast.com/webcasts/bas/energy2010/id76965240.cfm Perhaps Ward hasnt lost his marbles. I will keep my leaps and will probably rotate into 2013 on a pullback. Hopefully they can pull in a jv on the Miss, where the partner pays for the drilling. I cant wait to see the asset sells which should come out over the next few months.

I think when comparing world wide savings rates one has to consider the safety nets and entitlements offered in a country. I believe that if you need medical attention in China you must pay cash for it. That would cause anyone to save a huge percentage of their income. Same thing if you get laid off. I dont think this is a good thing, and I believe it gums up the economy. Ideally you want consumers spending most of their income and saving probably 5% - 10% for a rainy day. I think after tax is the best way to look at these sort of things.

Very interesting read. I think the market still considers CHK a gas play and believe Gas will be in the dumper for a while. I think we can buy after we see the numbers / economics from one of the plays for not much more in the future. Also CHK keeps saying liquids vs gas. I think they will kill the NGL market. They are too good what they do. Its on the watchlist and I will likely buy leaps at some point, but think we have plenty of time.

MTM is raised because Auditors dont want to think and want less liability. It has nothing to do with investors inmo. I think banks should choose MTM or Quarterly stress test with reserves test. The stress test could be based on loan location or delinquencies.

Doesnt FFH want a return on BV, and isnt BV levered quite a bit.

The long term shareholder gets a bigger piece of the piece. Either way the outcome is the same. The Treasurer would be fired by either you or I. Lol I also hate the shareholder talk. Its usually done by non shareholder CEOs.

Someone is moving out of banking...

Better yes, great or worth while - probably not. But hey they have a good business in China.

Eric is right, I have had a Treasurer tell me it doesnt matter what price you pay on a buyback because you are returning capital to shareholders. I thought it was idiotic but he was right. If you think the stock is overpriced you would sell. It doesnt reduce the overvaluation but its the same as a div.