Myth465

Thanks for the news. Really good to hear about LL. I guess Ben Graham gets around.

Eddie you and I need to find some other hobbies. oec2000 thanks for the info. I am now slightly curious why his returns from 2000 - 2006 werent higher. Either way you guys are right, the record speaks for itself.

Impressive. I have also been impressed by one of his co managers who appears on BNN, he values oil and gas investments on a value basis. Interesting I have always wondered how well one can do when they focus in one sector. Makes me feel better about my O&G investments.

New Zealand hit Aspen a bit, I wonder who are the key insurers in Oz. They said the big ones on the Aussie exchange have been hit pretty hard. This looks pretty bad and is shaping up to be their Katrina. Im in Houston and a few years removed from Katrina but this looks horrible. Especially the vids of cars just floating away.

These meetings are always when I have a work trip. Im ganna make one of these one of these days though. Be nice to have a face with all the aliases. I can justify the ticket now, the forum has been quite profitable.

Whats the breakdown of 1985 - 1999 and then 2000 - 2008? Not trying to be difficult, actually just curious. You dont think the bottom falling out of the commodity market affected his performance. It sure as hell affected my commodity stocks. Also I am sure the greatest tech investor has an awesome return over his career. I am also sure he killed the markets from 1996 - 1999. Its a not a purist thing, just the way I see it. I have no bone to pick with Sprott. All im saying is its nice flying with the jet stream. You still get brownie points for picking the route. Get it how you can, it all spends the same.

What do you guys make of this. It sounds pretty bad. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12167950 Up to 20,000 homes are now at risk in Brisbane, as deadly floodwater hit Australia's third-largest city, officials in the Queensland state say.

biaggio I thought the same thing.

Thats true, it feels good to be debt free. I have a small student loan but its at 3.85% inflation should eat that up.

This could prove to be a big anchor in an election year. I also have no idea how to wrap my head around the deflation hedge. Kind of puts a damper on the equity gains. Should be interesting though, we are do for a pull back.

I had a bid in for the convertible bonds maybe a year ago. I did the prudent thing though and paid off all remaining credit card leverage. Turns out that was very prudent, but not very profitable. Those bonds were such a fat pitch.

http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=119283 There is also a presentation. I am lazy so hopefully these shortcuts help. http://www.executiveforum.com/PDFs/syd_synopsis.pdf

I want some sort of working list like this. Thanks for the help guys. I will update the first thread with the ones I like. I am looking for either industries with severally depressed cash flows or industries trading at 3-5x CF. I figure its time to get away from Oil and Gas. So far we have Insurance Stocks - Many trading at less than book. Earnings pressure due to a soft market and low interest rates. Death by a thousand cuts. Many surviving on reserve releases, and one big cat could bring on a hard market. Can probably buy after the market hardens. Good time to pick your jockeys. Parker Stocks - A catch all for all those cheap media and entertainment stocks. Perhaps cheap due to neglect. Supertankers - Crude shippers, way too many ships have caused rates to fall to below or at break even. Slow steaming, scrapping, and double hull requirements will eventually bring it back into line. Hard to time, those who have tried were killed in 2009 and 2010. Grocery Stocks - Still working on this one.

This update is very informative - http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NDA5NDU3fENoaWxkSUQ9NDE5MzA4fFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1 Espicially slide 15 which compares all the plays.

As am I, I have my horses picked (FFH, LRE, maybe AHL) and am just waiting for that final death blow which hardens the market. I think insurance is awesome because we may get to buy at a discount precisely at the right time. I agree on the death by a thousand cuts, but these guys are awash with capital. I believe we need a big move (market or insurance related) to really bring things into line. ----- As far as retail 10-12 times earnings is where I tend to value most stocks. I like to leave a bit on the table for the next guy and dont want to hold something for years to only make 15% per annum (I know that sounds wierd). What I am looking for is sectors that are severely stressed. Shipping and Insurance are good examples. I want to analysis the sectors in hopes of figuring out what will drive the turn in these sectors. Pharma may count, but I am just not that smart.

Lol Also thanks for the link. Mercer is looking very interesting. That debt balance shares the hell out of anyone upon first glance. But the presentation below helps clarify things. I plan to listen to the September presentation. I always thought the US mills were big drags, they may turn out to be worth something for FFH. FFHWatcher do you have a position in Mercer? As Kuppy pointed out if pulp sucks win, at least FBK will survive. Mercer would have a bit more trouble. http://www.mercerint.com/i/pdf/UnderstandingMercersCapitalStructure.pdf

The real question is how do we get a seat at the table :)

Thanks Partner you have definitely furthered my understanding of the equity hedges.

I wouldnt bet against Bruce but Joe seems like dead money to me. I dont have decades to see this one through. Einhorn has probably made his money and will be leaving soon inmo. I am also guessing the SEC has enough egg on its face and will listen when Einhorn calls.

You are talking to a guy who only jumps on bandwagons ;D. It takes great skill to find the right wagon. My point is his asset class has been booming - Him and T Bone get credit for picking the right stocks, but what they invest in has gone nuts for the last 10 years. Its a nice tailwind. Its like someone from 93 - 2000 performing well. Thats great but whats going on in a down market. Bruce has performed well through it all and has only had a few down years. He also chooses the right bandwagon year after year. They are all much better than me, and worth their fees, but its something to think about.

Bronco I prefer the LUK model.

I didnt say he sucked just said .....

I like to think my sale is what is pushing up the price, but I am sure some stuff is going on behind the scenes or perhaps it is running like it always does prior to the release. I have been thinking about adding but think its properly sized. After my small untimely sale its about 7% of my portfolio. I am fairly pessimistic because I honestly have no idea where pulp prices are going. Unlike Oil I am not long term bullish (or bearish, I just have no idea). Its just too cheap not to own a small bit of. I am happy and if we get the $4 you guys expect, I will be very happy.

Packer thanks for your thoughts. Always helpful. I will likely follow you into a few of these but will avoid declining businesses (LNET, and the radio stocks). I dont see why theaters especially ones which are mostly digital would be trading at a 20% cash yield. As far as utilities, I have too many direct bets on raising gas prices would hate to add indirect ones. I also dont see gas prices raising. ------ I am pretty excited about these shipping stocks. Q4 will blow hopefully sending the stocks down. I feel good about the industry after listening to most of the presentation provided by OSG. They predict higher growth than projected, slow steaming, and ship scrapping to cover the overhang in tonnage.

I think people are foolish if they think Sprotts out performance has nothing to do with a 10 year bull market in commodities.