Myth465

I would market it as office size?

Thanks for the answers. Thats the tough thing about emerging markets. Easy to spot cheap, hard to see overvaluation. I tend to view growth as a call option, so its get tough when PEs get high due to projected growth. I think in the long run you will be proven right. ---- Eric, I totally agree. I look forward to the end of our 7 lean years here, and may move around a bit until it happens. We are 2-3 years in and hopefully in 4-5 years its shining again. ----- Ecco you have some balls. I have just learned how to do this for myself. It would stress me the hell out trying to do it for others. I can deal with 5%-10% portfolio losses in a day. Its a bad day, I shut the pc off and take a walk. May even buy more if I see more upside. But it would stress me the hell off to have people calling me about that. I would have to pull a Buffett and give people no insight into what they are invested in. Ecco are you 2 and 20? Also awesome story. I look forward to some of your stock picks.

To be honest, I get the big picture but not enough to short and like you said the cat is out of the bag. I think Einhorn is correct and people complicate things too much. The easiest and most efficient way to hedge something if you have too much of it is to sell some of it. Im not long or short any of these instruments and am too busy with all the cheap stocks out there. With that said, I predict volitility on the downside in the not too distant future. If I am write I will run with this and if wrong, I am sure we all will forgot about it and have moved on to the next prediction :)

Kuppy on the VXX / VIX http://adventuresincapitalism.com/post/2010/04/28/Designed-To-Fail.aspx

I just spent 2 weeks in Thailand. Walking around you really get a feel for the growth and the energy. It must be nice. North America feels grey and depressed and Europe even worse. I have thought about being fully invested and gone back and forth on it vs. holding cash. I believe Buffett said he would be fully invested as a small investor. What do you guys do for leverage, is it just margin or do you all have leaps / options? Also your English is better than our Thai, no need to apologize. ---- Packer thanks for the Tennis analogy.

This will likely work out but its too dicey for me (and I own a few over-levereaged doggy investments). The Republicans (perhaps rightfully so on this one) are quite anxious to end the support of the GSEs and put them into run off. Now may not be the right time due to the structure of the market but eventually I think there will be a fight over it. Every other distressed banking entity has been a money maker for those that went in after the carnage had done its damage, but this one is a hairy one. I still dont see or understand why the government is allowing private investors to profit from these entities prior to the public recouping 100% of its support but they are. I will be watching.

Its interesting I would like to Manage money, but the right kind of money with the right expectations. Also I can hold severe concentration or alot of leaps and deep value dingy stuff but dont know if I would want to put someone else in those plays. If I lose my money its just a bad day, other people dont really work the same. Its easy to look at returns, but its a world of difference doing your own thing, vs being a fiduciary.

We are all coming off good years so confidence is at an all time high. The pessismism will likely return sooner rather than later ;D

I think the board makes a distinction between pros who run billions and have to invest in large caps and us small guys who can buy leaps on cheap small / medium caps and dont have investors calling us every 20 minutes complaining about volatility. I think its a far distinction. A coworker wants me to invest some of his funds and asked me what amount I could promise him. That scared the hell out of me and the thought of me being nagged every day during the next crisis was enough for me to point him to Bruce B.

Another interesting read. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sp-melt-price-momentum-once-never-event It seems like the prudent thing to do is hold some cash. If I was in charge I would want a pull back now and a rally into year four for reelection.

Damn man. Thats rough. Makes me want to diversify a bit, right now I am finding alot of ideas. Alot of Packer style stocks at 4-5x cash flow. I have too much money in 2-4 ideas right now. Will have to think about it. Thanks for the thoughts.

I wouldnt be complaining. Well maybe double that by then, but 1.1 aint bad at all Compare to some board members here, 1.1M@35 is probably mediocre and somehow low. Investing is a tough business; we can easily feel we are better than what we are. It took me 5 years to get back the $$$$ I lost in 06.due to being overly confidence. Don't count your chips until you leave the table. I would be very happy with those mediocre returns. Very happy. Humm what happened in 2006. Was it all in on one play or a series of bad hands? If you dont mind me asking. Its tough to stay centered. I try to keep that Munger duck quote in mind. I know some bad days or due, 2011 has been a bit too good in terms of personal and investments. Right when I start to feel pretty smart something usually comes along to bring me back to earth. A few months ago it was KSP. I am sure something will creep up.

You must have been flushed with pride when you launched your missive. :D You guys know how to ruin a Friday morning cup of coffee and bagel.

I wouldnt be complaining. Well maybe double that by then, but 1.1 aint bad at all

I thought the same, the issue though is delivering gas around the US in the proper format. There is also a problem in getting the CNG to the fueling stations and getting fueling stations with the right infrastructure. The University Economist / Energy Executive said that there was only 1 public CNG fueling pump in all of Houston. From what I heard that day, its a massive under taking which would require billions in infrastructure (new pipelines, plants, and stations). It pretty much requires some sort of centrally lead plan. It may happen but it will take years. ---- Manual you may be right in the end. We know gas has to move up to the marginal cost of production and thats around $5 - $7 dollars. Something will get us there at some point and money will be made on gas. I think its going to be in the dog house for a year or two, but natural gas has a habit of making a fool out of predictors. Its too hard for me but I wish you luck. I would rather play oil and get a call option on gas.

I have stated my thoughts on Nat gas. Eric Nuttell a guy who works with Sprott also thinks Compton is a dog. I havent really looked at it in detail but I would prefer less leverage in gas. Looking at things on a BTU basis is interesting, but you have to consider the infrastructure and uses available. I dont know how many cars are in the US but very few of them can run on CNG. The pricing would close naturally if we could all switch but planes, and cars in service are stuck with oil based engines.

I dont think its too high, Ward seems like he likes control and has backing from FFH. At the right price anything is possible. I dont see him taking a buyout for less than $17 a share. Most of his shares are underwater. I think a sale may happen, but they will prove up the Miss play first and may wait for a rebound in Nat gas. Right now you would be selling when 1 asset is still being proved up and another is severally depressed.

I was fairly compulsive about hip and hop and underground music about 10 years ago. Now I just listen to top 40 (due to time constraints and other more profitable (investing) and expensive (travel) interests). Man times have changed. I am guessing this board has a very interesting collection of members.

This is a good point, I guess Buffett got religious after he had control (Perhaps Lamp and Biglari will follow). I think Berkshire though was a bit more straight forward. Its an interesting watch and I know the long term shareholders will be rewarded. Hopefully I can spot the turn and buy some options. I would today, but cant say this picture will be painted in less than 2 years.

Doesnt Buffett advocate given owners some sort of idea of intrinsic value before buying them out on the cheap? Our shareholders are long-term and loyal owners. We have the most honest-to-god attitude of ownership of any public company. People buy it to own it. It does mean that if it gets cheap, we won’t be able to buy much. But that’s OK. We’re not looking to make money off shareholders by buying them out at a discount. --- Lampert has purposely not discussed his long term plan or view of value so that he could buy his partners out. I can understand why but its not too fair in my opinion. Also I think you are right from a big picture perspective ValueGeek but I think something has changed. The price he was buying shares back early on were very high. That tells me he was focused on RE which was worth much more prior to the crash. 2 questions. 1. How the hell does Sears.com sell so much? Hell how the hell does Sears B&M still sell stuff (I am guessing middle America)? 2. Any relation to Jim Tisch of Loews? I know that was 3 questions. --- I figure either Lampert is bailing himself out (highly unlikely) or is in Phase 6 or a 9 - 12 phase plan. It should be profitable, but I dont have the capital or brains (like Bruce B or Value Geek) to figure it out. I have my popcorn and will continue to watch though. BargainValueHunter - That my friend is a beautiful chart.

Oh I am watching all 3. Buffett - Wont make me rich but you have to watch the master. Lampert - Crazy like a fox, I am very curious to see what the master plan eventually was / is. Biglari - Love him or hate him you have to watch him. I have learned alot from him (Both what to do and not to do).

I dont think he should be running a public company. Mysteries are for private companies. Its been years and no one has any idea what he is up to.

Its tough to bet on or plan for something that everyone knows will occur but I will or am planning on it. Congress is inept. Look at the freshman in the house. Do you really think they will be comfortable bailing out California or New Jersey. God hope Arizona is first or another red state. When / If a muni or state stops paying there will be panic because no one will know what will happen next. I think Congress will hem and ha for a long time before a bailout is signed. I could be wrong though perhaps the Fed or some other institution will simply go around Congress and tie up the loose end.

Hey Bargin you have me thinking and I started a new thread. http://cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/index.php?topic=3640.0 Feel free to respond here, there, or not at all. Regards.

This post got me thinking. I keep 3 lists going based on current events and thoughts on the future. 1. Is about deep value sectors - Have a thread to discuss these. Its nice to know where future profits will be made. 2. Is salad oil type events - Events which have caused massive sell offs in industries, but which are temporary in nature and have a measurable time frame. The Deep Water Horizon Event is the best recent example. I dont see anything going on currently (unless you count the defacto moratorium which is still effecting (ATPG and DO). 3. Potential Risks or Upcoming Issues we can call these Grey Swans. Issues relating to Sovereign Debt - Could be US, Japan or Euro. Something is likely around the corner. Potential Collapse of Commercial Real Estate - So far this one has yet to happen, and may not ever happen. We have extend and pretend and it may just work. Issues with debt at the State and Muni level, Collapse of Muni Bond Market - Buy Bonds shortly after a municipality collapses or stops paying. Try to wait for good yields, and maximum pessimism. ----- Its easy to identify these, but what are the best ways to position and profit for them. One needs cash but what next. The one everyone seems to agree on is the Muni issue. Does one just buy munis yielding high rates when the panic ensues or is there a better way to play the situation should it occur. Everyone seems to agree that we will have a panic, then Fed bailout. Whats the plan post panic, pre bailout. Here is Meredith Whitney's Take - http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=119380 Thats one confident women.